Biggest Upset Watch Games for the 2023 College Football Season
The road to a conference title, or even a trip to the College Football Playoff, ls littered with obstacles. Top opponents, tough environments, short rest and many other factors can lead to upsets.
And those unexpected losses can wreck a season.
Looking ahead to the 2023 campaign, several early matchups stand out as thorns for teams with a high preseason ranking.
While the list is subjective, key considerations are game location and timing. Impact of the result, such as the influence on a tiebreaker, is another element to consider.
Boise State at Washington
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After an offseason full of hype, Washington kicks off the campaign against the Mountain West favorite. That's not ideal.
Boise State returns an experienced offense, including mobile quarterback Taylen Green, top running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty and last season's top four receivers. While the defense has a handful of new starters, most of them held rotational roles in 2022.
On paper, Washington has more talent. Home-field advantage leans in the Huskies' favor, too.
Still, the combination of dealing with high expectations and a sturdy opponent in the opening game is a bit unsettling for Washington, which has a best-case scenario of a CFP bid.
Clemson at Duke
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Garrett Riley seems like an ideal offensive coordinator for Clemson. Cade Klubnik is poised reinforce his 5-star billing in his first season as the Tigers' starter. Clemson should win the ACC.
You might share each of those opinions. But they'll be put to the test against Duke in Week 1.
Last season, Riley Leonard led the Blue Devils to an admirable 6.1 yards per snap and 32.8 points per game. He threw for 2,967 yards, rushed for 699 and totaled 33 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions.
Additionally, the Blue Devils only have to replace four of their top 15 tacklers. Head coach Mike Elko—a former defensive coordinator—already helped Duke make an incredible jump in his first season, so there's reasonable optimism for more improvement in his second year.
Clemson must be prepared for a pesky Duke team on Labor Day.
Texas at Alabama
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The home-and-home series heads to Tuscaloosa this year, but Texas will be out for revenge after losing 20-19 to Alabama on a last-minute field goal in Austin last season.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers exited that contest with a shoulder injury, but he had played well in his limited snaps before he got hurt. Health is never guaranteed, but Ewers is a high-upside talent with a terrific pass-catching corps. Xavier Worthy, Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders headline the unit.
Meanwhile, Alabama is settling its own quarterback situation and breaking in a retooled secondary. While the Crimson Tide have a strong roster, they're relatively thin on proven stars.
By the end of the season, Bama may clearly be a better team. However, Texas has a chance to capitalize in Week 2.
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Oregon at Texas Tech
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In other Week 2 action, national hopeful and Pac-12 contender Oregon travels to a potentially upstart Texas Tech squad.
Last season, first-year coach Joey McGuire quickly improved the perception of the Red Raiders. They won eight games, including four straight to close the campaign after quarterback Tyler Shough returned from a shoulder injury that sidelined him for six games.
Now, can Tech's defense contain Bo Nix?
The veteran signal-caller had a spectacular season in 2022, sticking in the Heisman Trophy race until an ankle issue hampered him down the stretch. He'll be the most dangerous player on the field.
But if the Red Raiders don't allow Nix to dominate the evening, they could pull off an attention-grabbing upset at home.
Penn State at Illinois
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Ranked seventh in the preseason AP poll, Penn State is highly respected for several reasons. Not only did the Nittany Lions win 11 games last year, but a defense that finished fifth nationally in yards per play allowed is set to return a majority of the unit in 2023.
Could this finally be the year Penn State leaps past Ohio State and Michigan again?
Don't be quick to overlook Illinois, though.
Similar to Penn State, the Illini bring back a handful of top starters from an elite defense. While they've revamped their secondary, defensive linemen Jer'Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. both had 13 tackles for loss in 2022.
Beyond hosting this Week 3 matchup, Illinois will also have an extra day of rest after traveling to Kansas on the previous Friday.
Since the Nittany Lions have dreams of competing for a CFP trip, they can't afford an early Big Ten loss. Otherwise, they'll fall perilously behind OSU and U-M with those showdowns still to come.
Ohio State at Notre Dame
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Notre Dame landed at No. 13 in the initial AP ranking, but DraftKings Sportsbook lists Ohio State as a touchdown favorite over the Fighting Irish. This would still be a considerable upset for the hosts.
The aftermath of the Week 4 result may be powerful.
Ohio State recovered from an early loss to Oregon in 2021, entering the clash against rival Michigan with an opportunity to reach the Big Ten Championship Game and ultimately the College Football Playoff. However, a loss to ND would eliminate OSU's margin for error with Penn State and trips to Wisconsin and Michigan remaining on the docket.
On the other hand, Notre Dame—which is set for star Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman to guide the offense—could elevate itself from a New Year's Six bowl contender to a true national threat.
Ohio State won last season's tilt 21-10 in Columbus.
LSU at Ole Miss
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No matter what happens in LSU's opener with Florida State, the Tigers won't be easing into the campaign. SEC West foes Mississippi State, Arkansas and Ole Miss all loom on their September slate.
That final contest is particularly notable, as Ole Miss is a Top 25-caliber team and could be desperate for a win in Week 5.
One week earlier, the Rebels head to Tuscaloosa for a showdown with Nick Saban's team. Losing to both Alabama and LSU would effectively eliminate Ole Miss from SEC contention by the end of September.
As much as Ole Miss' defense is a concern, Lane Kiffin has yet another tantalizing offense to propel the team. The transfer-infused receiving corps should be among the top units in the conference.
LSU has regularly found ways to win lately in the high-scoring series, but Ole Miss is a wild card worth monitoring.
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