Shohei Ohtani Trade Packages for the Yankees, Dodgers and More
Welcome, everyone, to a bizarre point in spacetime where Shohei Ohtani trade speculation is at once possibly pointless and increasingly unavoidable.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on July 6 that the Los Angeles Angels "seem to be leaving open the slight possibility" of trading the two-way superstar before Major League Baseball's Aug. 1 deadline. And on Thursday, ESPN's Buster Olney made waves by highlighting the New York Yankees as a possible destination:
Of course, Heyman had another report on July 9 that cast more doubt on Angels owner Arte Moreno's willingness to move Ohtani. That tracks with what he told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated in March: "We will not trade Ohtani while we are contending for a playoff spot."
But while the Angels are still technically in contention, the end of their first half was marred by a serious injury to three-time MVP Mike Trout and a 1-9 skid that dropped their record to 45-46. As of now, FanGraphs gives them a 10.9 percent chance of making the playoffs.
So, let's ponder Ohtani's value and what he might fetch from potential suitors.
Ohtani Shouldn't Come Cheap
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The obvious downside of trading for Ohtani is that he's an impending free agent, and thus only guaranteed to stick on a new team for the final two months of the season. He's also earning $30 million, which isn't cheap.
There has, however, never been a rental quite like this one.
The last three seasons have seen Ohtani, 29, rise above the Babe Ruth comparisons and achieve a singular brand of superstardom. And his peak is happening right now. He's allowing the lowest batting average of any starter and he's up to 32 home runs on offense, thus threatening the American League record 62 that Aaron Judge hit last year.
If the Angels do choose to make Ohtani available, they'd be within their rights to name their price and not back down even one iota. A fair deal? Nah. It would be malpractice if Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian accepted anything less than an overpay. The more controllable young players they can get in return, the better.
With help from Baseball Trade Values' trade simulator, we've dreamed up five trades that would fit the bill. But first, some acknowledgments to other teams who could get involved.
The Field
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If a team is going to blatantly overpay to rent Ohtani, chances are it'll be one with World Series aspirations.
Teams with actual, real-world aspirations include Atlanta, the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies. Then there are those who may still be clinging to preseason aspirations, such as the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres and New York Mets.
The trouble with those first three clubs is that they might have the three worst farm systems in MLB. The Phillies fare better in the abstract, but not so much otherwise while their top prospect, right-hander Andrew Painter, is out with a UCL injury.
The Padres and Mets, meanwhile, are both under .500. Not so far under that neither has a chance of getting into winning territory before Aug. 1, mind you, but enough for now to dismiss them as serious suitors for Ohtani.
The Mariners are only one game over .500 in their own right, and they have an ostensible disadvantage of being one of the Angels' AL West rivals. Still, they pass muster as a dark horse. Ohtani loves Seattle, and the club has a solid farm system replete with bats and arms alike.
Other contenders such as the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks at least deserve subtle nods, but the timing for a blockbuster just doesn't seem right for any of them.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.9 (15th)
Designated Hitter WAR: 1.4 (T-6th)
There are far-fetched ideas, and then there's this idea. Moreno seems to have no love lost for the Angels' bigger, badder regional rival, so it's hard to imagine him OKing any deal that sends Ohtani to said rival.
Yet none of this should stop Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman from reaching out. And if he wants to play the card that Ohtani is likely to end up in Dodger Blue anyway, well, that would be fair.
What's for sure is that, even though they lead the NL West at 51-38, the Dodgers could use Ohtani as much as anyone.
Per Spotrac, Dodgers pitchers have racked up more days on the injured list than any other team's hurlers. The club's offense has been sturdier, yet it doesn't go as deep as the offense that led the majors in runs scored last year.
Proposed Trade: Dodgers get DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Angels get INF Michael Busch, RHP Nick Frasso, OF Andy Pages, RHP Nick Nastrini and OF Josue De Paula
If the Angels are going to trade Ohtani to the Dodgers, one would think that they'd only double down on a desire to extract all they can. In this case, they'd get the No. 32 (Busch), No. 63 (Frasso) and No. 68 (Frasso) prospects in our rankings, not to mention two others who rank within the Dodgers' top 10 at MLB.com.
San Francisco Giants
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Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.9 (12th)
Designated Hitter WAR: 1.0 (13th)
Don't take it from us that the Giants should get involved in the Ohtani sweepstakes. Take it from Alex Cobb.
"I'd be thrilled if there was some avenue for us to get him at the deadline and sign him long-term," the All-Star right-hander said from the festivities in Seattle this week, according to Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News.
Cobb may not run the Giants, but it's not exactly a big secret that the people who do are desperate for a brand-name star. As those go, Ohtani is the brandest, namest of them all.
Though the Giants are "only" 49-41, 20 of those wins have come just since June 6. Ohtani's bat would lengthen an already sneaky-deep lineup, while his arm would pair nicely with those of Cobb and MLB's current leader in innings pitched, Logan Webb.
Trade Proposal: Giants get DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Angels get LHP Kyle Harrison, SS Marco Luciano and LHP Carson Whisenhunt
This is a less heavy price than the one we pitched for the Dodgers, but it would still tip the proverbial scales. Harrison, Luciano and Whisenhunt rank as MLB's No. 14, No. 67 and No. 70 prospects, and all three are in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Harrison, in particular, is probably the most prized left-handed prospect in baseball.
Tampa Bay Rays
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Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.5 (5th)
Designated Hitter WAR: 2.0 (2nd)
This is where we start getting into the teams cited by Olney as potential landing spots for Ohtani. And if one buys into the notion they should be all-in on winning this year, one can even see the Rays becoming especially desperate for him.
The 29-7 start the Rays got off to is long gone. They've barely won more games (29) than they've lost (28) since then, resulting in their lead in the AL East shrinking from a high of 6.5 games to just two games over the Baltimore Orioles.
The Rays' biggest problem resides on the mound. They do have ace lefty Shane McClanahan about to return from a back injury, but Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are both out for the season with elbow injuries.
Though Ohtani's bat is more of a nice-to-have for the Rays, there's nothing wrong with super-charging an offense that already ranks second in the AL in scoring.
Proposed Trade: Rays get DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Angels get SS/3B Junior Caminero, 1B Kyle Manzardo and RHP Santiago Suarez
Loaded though the Rays offense may be, their farm system remains well stocked with talented hitters. In the fast-rising Caminero and Manzardo, this trade would net the Angels the best and fourth-best of those. Suarez would be more of a lottery ticket, albeit an intriguing one who has a 0.98 ERA through five appearances in rookie ball.
Texas Rangers
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Starting Pitcher WAR: 6.9 (10th)
Designated Hitter WAR: 1.3 (T-8th)
Let's just say the Rangers can relate to what the Rays are going through.
Their lead in the AL West was 6.5 games as recently as June 23, when their record stood at 47-28. But as a result of a 5-11 stretch to finish off the first half, they now lead the reigning World Series champion Astros by just two games.
Also similarly to the Rays, the Rangers need Ohtani's arm more than they need his bat. Their pitching staff took the loss of Jacob deGrom to Tommy John surgery in stride for a while, but a 4.89 ERA over 30 games since June 9 has taken the shine off.
This said, there's no opponent the Rangers couldn't outscore if Ohtani were to slide into a lineup that already leads MLB in runs.
Proposed Trade: Rangers get DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Angels get OF Evan Carter, SS Luisangel Acuña and RHP Brock Porter
Those three names belong to the No. 8, No. 60 and No. 83 prospects in all of MLB. The first is Carter, whose stock has blown up as he's hit at .301/.413/.464 across two levels of the minors. Acuña is likewise having a strong season at Double-A, while Porter was a top draft prospect just last year. In all, a nice package to extract from a division rival.
New York Yankees
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Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.0 (14th)
Designated Hitter WAR: 0.5 (21st)
As soon as the word "Yankees" escaped Olney's mouth, yours truly nodded his head and said, "Yeah, that tracks."
The Yankees began this season as arguably the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series for the first time since 2009. Cut to now, and they're 49-42 and stinking up the place so bad offensively that they fired their hitting coach.
New hitting coach Sean Casey might be able to fix things, but the Yankees lineup would need another impact bat even if Judge wasn't sidelined until at least August with a toe injury. And if Ohtani were to suddenly call Yankee Stadium home, well, we're talking major impact.
The Yankees have been better on the mound, but Gerrit Cole still needs a co-ace. Because after he struck out just two batters in his long-awaited Yankees debut, Carlos Rodón might be better suited to be a No. 3 in a playoff rotation.
Proposed Trade: Yankees get DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Angels get SS Anthony Volpe, OF Jasson Domínguez, OF Spencer Jones
The Yankees simply don't have a strong farm system, so it's hard to imagine them getting the Angels' attention without offering up the increasingly warm Volpe. Parting with him would not be easy, but either Isiah Kiner-Falefa or former top prospect Oswald Peraza would be viable solutions at shortstop at least for the near-term.
For their parts, Domínguez is the only top 100 prospect the Yankees have, and the 6'6", 225-pound Jones invited Judge comps after he was drafted last year.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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