Are We Sleeping on the Browns? Why AFC North Will Be NFL's Toughest Division in 2023
There's been plenty of buzz this offseason about the AFC East, which now features four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback for the New York Jets. The other three teams in the division are led by superstar quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa) or legendary head coaches (Bill Belichick).
The AFC West also continues to be a focal point when it comes to stacked and intriguing divisions. It features the defending Super Bowl champion/current Super Bowl favorite along with teams led by Russell Wilson/Sean Payton and Justin Herbert.
Five teams from those two divisions rank in the top 12 in Super Bowl odds at DraftKings, with the Denver Broncos also in the middle of the pack. That speaks volumes considering those odds take into account how the divisions themselves are prohibitive when it comes to potential success.
.jpg?w=256 "Bills Jaguars Football")
While it may not be as top-heavy as the AFC East or AFC West, only one division contains four teams with Super Bowl odds that are +5000 or better. No team in this division ranks 20th or lower in that regard, which means all four participants have a shot in the parity-dominated NFL.
At the very least, the AFC North might be the most balanced and competitive division in the NFL. And depending on how you look at it—particularly if one or more teams in the division can establish themselves as elite—it might actually be the best division in the NFL.
That primarily boils down to how we're collectively underrating the Cleveland Browns.
Two years ago, when Baker Mayfield was still their quarterback, the Browns ranked eighth in preseason Super Bowl odds. They've disappointed amid instability at quarterback since then, but they still ranked in the top 13 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders in both 2021 and 2022 after winning 11 games in 2020.
Now, the Browns have quarterback Deshaun Watson—the third-highest-rated passer in NFL history—for his full first season with the team. Beyond that, Nick Chubb is one of the league's top three running backs, the offensive line continues to be in the upper echelon, and a defense that already featured perennial All-Pro Myles Garrett has added veteran pass-rusher Za'Darius Smith to the fray.
Leading that unit will be the venerable Jim Schwartz, one of the best defensive minds in the sport and a Super Bowl champion with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017. If Schwartz and head coach Kevin Stefanski and key cogs like Watson, Chubb, Garrett, Smith, Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome II, Martin Emerson Jr., Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Grant Delpit, David Njoku, Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones can put it all together in 2023, this team can absolutely contend for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The ingredients are there, but the same holds true for both the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. Both of those contenders rank in the top eight in terms of Super Bowl odds.
Cincinnati has won five playoff games over the past two years and looks primed to take the next step with franchise quarterback Joe Burrow. Baltimore made Lamar Jackson the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history earlier this offseason and should expect to make a deep playoff run if Jackson can stay healthy.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are undoubtedly the afterthought in the AFC North, but that just goes to show how strong the division is from top to bottom.
It's fair to wonder if quarterback Kenny Pickett can take off in his sophomore season, as the jury remains out on him. But the Steelers haven't posted a losing record in two decades and are led by a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Mike Tomlin. The defense is still pretty stacked after finishing third in DVOA last year. The Steelers can't be counted out with Tomlin, a recent first-round quarterback and defensive standouts such as T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick.
The fourth-place finisher in this division could easily win nine or more games. The odds actually favor that. And because every team is so strong and they each play each other twice, that cannibalization could keep the eventual division champ from winning a dozen or more games and contending for a first-round bye.
The entire AFC—including the AFC South if the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are at their best—should be a circus in 2023. But don't be surprised if the AFC North overtakes the others and becomes the most hotly contested division in the NFL.
Odds, lines and betting splits refresh periodically and are subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
Gambling problem? Crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).
.jpg?w=480 "Bills Jaguars Football")
