Manu Ginobili Injury: San Antonio Spurs' NBA Season in Jeopardy

Manu Ginobili broke his left hand against the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. This is a devastating injury for the San Antonio Spurs, and puts their season in jeopardy. Spurs assistant coach Joe Newman told Spurs TV last night that he could be out four to six weeks (h/t Joe Alexander).

Over the last three years, the Spurs are 22-21 (.511) without Ginobili in the lineup and 96-33 (.744) with him in the lineup. That's a difference in wining percentage of 23 points. To put that in perspective in an 82 game season, that's the difference between a 42-win season and a 61-win season. 

In other words, Ginobili makes the Spurs a much better team. 

Now, granted, he's "only out for six weeks," but that's a large percentage of this condensed season. Even if he comes back strong after that projection, that's 30 games he'll miss, just short of half the season. Based on the Spurs' previous success without him, they should go 16-14 over that frame. 

That's being a bit optimistic as well. The Spurs have changed their philosophy over the last two seasons, relying more on Ginobili and his unorthodox playing style and less on future Hall of Fame power forward Tim Duncan.

Ginobili has been the team's leading scorer with 17.2 points per game, which equates to 27.0 points per 36 minutes. 

They type of play that comes from Ginobili simply can't be replaced. He's one of the most unique players in the league. They can plug in another shooting guard, but they can't plug in one who will make the offense work the way Ginobili does. 

Even if the Spurs do manage to hover around .500, it could be too late by the time Ginobili gets back.

The Spurs will be able to make the postseason still, but they won't be likely to have home court in the first round. Only one team has ever won the championship without having home court advantage in the first round in the present playoff system. 

The Spurs' championship hopes went from fairly reasonable to implausible the moment Ginobili broke his hand.