Ranking Mets Ace Justin Verlander's Potential Landing Spots amid Trade Rumors
Would the New York Mets really trade a three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer so soon after signing him?
This question has been hanging over Max Scherzer in the second year of his deal, and now it's over fellow veteran ace Justin Verlander in the first of his. As Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported Monday, the 40-year-old right-hander is attracting "legitimate" interest ahead of MLB's Aug. 1 trade deadline.
Before we get to sizing up Verlander's value and potential landing spots, understand this: an actual deal seems highly unlikely.
Though the Mets' World Series aspirations are all but kaput amid a 47-53 start to their season, Andy Martino of SNY and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have both cast doubt on the prospect of a Verlander trade. The man himself, meanwhile, may be inclined to take advantage of the full no-trade protection he has under his two-year, $86.7 million contract.
"I enjoy it here. I want to be here," Verlander told Heyman. "I'm a New York Met. I signed here to win a championship here. I want to leave a legacy here. That's why I signed up here. Until that's put on my plate, if it's ever put on my plate, I don't think about that stuff."
And yet, we'll do the ol' adage well and say that stranger things have happened.
Deciphering Verlander's Value
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The Verlander of 2023 does not resemble the Verlander of 2022, who returned from Tommy John surgery to win his second World Series ring and his third Cy Young on the strength of a league-leading 1.75 ERA.
After missing the first month of the year with a teres major strain, Verlander has been slightly more human in pitching to a 3.24 ERA. Some of his peripheral metrics suggest he deserves better, but it's hard to square that with his diminished strikeout, walk and home run rates.
Oh, and he's under contract for $43.3 million both this year and the next. And should he clear 140 innings and pass a physical in 2024, a $35 million option for 2025 will vest.
Still, he's on a hot streak with a 1.46 ERA in six starts and, of course, literally Justin Verlander. And with one general manager having remarked to ESPN's Jeff Passan that the current environment is the "best sellers' market of my lifetime," one can imagine scenarios in which a trade comes together.
For instance, what if the Mets could shed the bulk of Verlander's contract and recoup at least two of a team's top prospects? Could they bring themselves to say no? And if it means a chance to join a proper championship contender, could Verlander bring himself to say no?
It was by way of this line of thinking that we set about speculating on 10 potential suitors for Verlander and what five of them might give up. To the latter end, Baseball Trade Values' trade simulator was helpful as always.
10-6: Yankees, Reds, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks
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10. New York Yankees
Record: 53-48
Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.9 (20th)
The Yankees are worth mentioning because they checked in on Verlander during the winter. That was, however, before they signed Carlos Rodรณn, who only recently came off the injured list. Rather than add another top-level starter, it seems more likely that the Yankees will focus their efforts on their woeful offense.
9. Cincinnati Reds
Record: 56-47
Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.5 (15th)
Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Reds are willing to shop Rookie of the Year-winning second baseman Jonathan India for starting pitching. But even setting aside whether the Reds would want any portion of Verlander's contract, there's the reality that the Reds specifically want young pitching.
8. Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 62-42
Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.0 (4th)
Though the Rays are also a low-payroll team, their reported interest (via Passan) in Shohei Ohtani suggests they aren't totally unwilling to take on a high-priced star. But with their rotation having already been ravaged by injuries, the question of whether they should want to take a risk on a 40-year-old Tommy John survivor is a good one.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Record: 62-39
Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.2 (16th)
The Orioles are yet another low-payroll team that's been linked to Ohtani, so we'll make a similar assumption that a big salary isn't a non-starter for them. And Verlander would frankly fit them better than the Rays. Whereas they at least have Shane McClanahan, the O's rotation doesn't really have a No. 1 starter.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 55-47
Starting Pitcher WAR: 3.2 (T-25th)
According to Morosi, the Diamondbacks have also checked in on Ohtani. Were they to pivot to Verlander, that would make sense on account of how inconsistent starters not named Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly have been this year. And for what it's worth, they're operating with a payroll below its peak capacity.
5. Houston Astros
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Record: 58-44
Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.0 (T-4th)
Though Heyman opined during a B/R video interview on Tuesday that Verlander might not waive his no-trade protection even for the Astros...well, did anyone seriously think we were going to go through this exercise without imagining a reunion?
Yeah, right. And lest anyone forget, Astros GM Dana Brown hinted in June about wanting to add another starter to go with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown. "That's good to roll into the postseason with, but if we can add to that, that would be good."
Houston's starting pitching has only deteriorated since June 17, posting a 4.87 ERA that ranks as the ninth-worst in MLB. Valdez, Javier and Brown have actually been the main offenders in this span, combining to pitch to a 6.64 ERA.
Proposed Trade: Astros get RHP Justin Verlander and $24 Million, Mets get OF Ryan Clifford and OF Jacob Melton
Verlander has close to $60 million remaining on his contract, so this deal would get the Mets out from under most of that. And in Clifford and Melton, they'd get back Houston's second- and third-best prospects as ranked by B/R's Joel Reuter.
The catch is that these are the No. 2 and No. 3 prospects in the worst farm system in the league. If the Mets are really going to abandon their Verlander experiment halfway through its first season, it should be for a better trade than this.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
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Record: 56-46
Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.7 (21st)
It's not for lack of interest that Verlander isn't already a member of the Blue Jays. They made a run at him during the 2021-22 offseason and circled him again this past winter.
Cut to now, and the Blue Jays are in a weird spot wherein their starting pitching simultaneously looks good yet somehow not good enough. As well as Kevin Gausman and Josรฉ Berrรญos have done, there's no ignoring the hole left by Alek Manoah's fall from grace.
If they can't extract Marcus Stroman from the Chicago Cubs, the Blue Jays would do well to take yet another fresh look at Verlander. Say what you will about his unspectacular World Series track record, but they could especially use his postseason experience.
Proposed Trade: Blue Jays get RHP Justin Verlander and $18 Million, Mets get LHP Brandon Barriera and RHP Yosver Zulueta
This deal would see the Mets offload even more of Verlander's contract while getting back Toronto's fourth- and fifth-ranked prospects in return. But the catch is twofold: The Blue Jays system ranks No. 25 in MLB and its best prospects may be/are unattainable.
The Blue Jays' top prospect (LHP Ricky Tiedemann) only recently returned from an injury, while their next-best (2B Arjun Nimmala) is ineligible to be traded until after the World Series and their third-best (3B Orelvis Martinez) looks like their heir to Matt Chapman.
3. Texas Rangers
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Record: 59-43
Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.4 (8th)
Verlander has occasionally invited comparisons to Nolan Ryan, so it makes sense that he would also pitch for both the Astros and the Rangers at the tail end of a Cooperstown-worthy career.
Starting pitching no longer looks like the strength that it has been for the bulk of the season for the Rangers. Andrew Heaney and Martรญn Pรฉrez have struggled since Jacob deGrom (Tommy John surgery) last started on April 28, while staff ace Nathan Eovaldi is getting extra rest following a velocity dip his last time out:
Verlander is a fit for the Rangers just on these accounts, and then there's the prospect of a two-fer deal. With their bullpen badly in need of help, it would be a coup if the Rangers also got veteran closer David Robertson from the Mets.
Proposed Trade: Rangers get RHP Justin Verlander, RHP David Robertson and $23 Million, Mets get RHP Brock Porter and 2B Justin Foscue
For the Mets, adding Robertson alongside the obligatory cash would hypothetically give them leverage to demand a strong package from the Rangers. And this, indeed, would be a strong package.
Porter and Foscue rank as the No. 4 and No. 6 prospects in the ninth-best system in MLB. Both are having strong seasons in the minors, with Porter posting a 2.55 ERA at Single-A and Foscue putting up an .859 OPS at Triple-A.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Record: 58-42
Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.0 (T-17th)
The Dodgers are said by Morosi to be eyeing Lucas Giolito, which would mean they're in the market for reinforcements for a rotation that's been badly damaged by injuries.
If the Dodgers instead pursue Verlander, it wouldn't be for the first time. He wasn't merely on their radar this past offseason. They went so far as to actually meet with him, and at the time it felt like a perfect fit. Even now, it's still easy to imagine him in Dodger Blue.
Besides, Verlander eventually joining forces with Clayton Kershaw would have the same "cool" factor as his current tandem with Scherzer. By wins above replacement, these are the three most accomplished active pitchers we're talking about.
Proposed Trade: Dodgers get RHP Justin Verlander, OF Tommy Pham and $28 Million, Mets get RHP Nick Frasso and RHP Gavin Stone
The Dodgers have the No. 2 farm system in MLB, so they're an ideal trading partner for the Mets just on that front. And especially if they were also to tack on Pham as the right-handed bat the Dodgers need, they'd stand to score quite a haul.
Stone has fallen on hard times this season, but he was widely considered a top-100 prospect coming into it. For his part, Frasso ranked at No. 63 in Reuter's latest rankings amid a breakout year in which he struck out 70 against only 13 walks at Double-A.
1. San Francisco Giants
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Record: 55-47
Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.0 (T-17th)
Why rank the Giants as the No. 1 fit for Verlander? Well, that's easy. Whereas the other nine teams on this list are strictly speculative suitors, the Giants are an actual suitor.
This is according to Morosi, who reported Saturday that the Giants have their eye on Verlander:
Because the Giants rank eighth in the National League in runs scored, this is perhaps a case of them dwelling on a small problem while ignoring a bigger one. The Giants do nonetheless need to deepen a starting rotation that's gotten a 5.15 ERA from starters not named Logan Webb or Alex Cobb, and they could likewise target Pham as a deal-sweetener.
Proposed Trade: Giants get RHP Justin Verlander, OF Tommy Pham and $22 Million, Mets get LHP Carson Whisenhunt and LHP Reggie Crawford
It's not a great farm system the Giants have, but it's top-heavy with four prospects ranked within MLB's top 70. Whisenhunt is one of them, and his stock is only rising amid a year in which he's already been promoted twice while posting a 2.45 ERA.
Crawford is more of a wild card, albeit one who might have been the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft if he hadn't needed Tommy John surgery. He's not really the two-way player he was then, but 6'4", 235-pound southpaws with triple-digit heat are nonetheless nice to have.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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