Ranking Cubs SP Marcus Stroman's Potential Landing Spots amid Trade Rumors
It's unclear whether the Chicago Cubs will sell at Major League Baseball's Aug. 1 deadline, but they'll have one of the market's top trade chips if they do.
That would be Marcus Stroman. Already a two-time All-Star, the 32-year-old is mounting a run at the National League Cy Young Award in 2023. He boasts a 3.09 ERA through 122.1 innings, with his 3.0 wins above replacement ranking third among NL hurlers.
Alas, it's been in service of a Cubs squad that's 45-51 and 8.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Hence the near-constant trade buzz and reported interest from three teams.
Yet the situation does come with strings attached.
Stroman is still owed about another $10 million out of the $25 million he's making this year, and chances are he'll test free agency this winter rather than exercise a $21 million player option for 2024. He's also ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. None of this necessarily helps either his trade value or the Cubs' leverage in negotiations.
With help from Baseball Trade Values' trade simulator, we nonetheless did what we could in assessing the 10 best fits for Stroman and what five of them could hypothetically offer for him.
10-6: Atlanta, Red Sox, Reds, Diamondbacks, Giants
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10. Atlanta
Record: 62-33 (1st in NL East)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.1 (9th)
With Max Fried due back off the injured list later this month and Kyle Wright set to follow in August, starting pitching wouldn't seem to be a priority for the NL East leaders. But if either hurler suffers a setback between now and Aug. 1, one can imagine Atlanta barging into the Stroman sweepstakes.
9. Boston Red Sox
Record: 51-46 (4th in AL East)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.2 (8th)
The Red Sox's rotation consists of Brayan Bello, James Paxton, Kutter Crawford and whoever can open on those guys' off days. Not great, Bob. But since they're in fourth place in the American League East, it'll likely take a winning streak to put the Sox firmly enough in "buy" territory to go after a pitcher like Stroman.
8. Cincinnati Reds
Record: 52-46 (2nd in NL Central)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.2 (23rd)
The Reds have been among the highest-scoring teams in MLB since Elly De La Cruz debuted on June 6, and that alone has been enough to put them in playoff contention. What they need now is pitching, though a recent six-game skid may have only served to heighten their risk aversion.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 54-43 (T-2nd in NL West)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 2.8 (26th)
The Diamondbacks are in the hunt for a playoff spot very much in spite of a starting pitching staff that's been hit hard by injuries. Stroman would obviously help in this regard, but general manager Mike Hazen sounds a little tentative to go all-in amid a 5-9 stretch in July.
6. San Francisco Giants
Record: 54-43 (T-2nd in NL West)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 6.5 (12th)
Middle infield help is at the top of the Giants' wish list, and rightfully so. But their pitching staff also needs support for co-aces Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, so it wouldn't be surprising if they went for Stroman as part of an attempt to build a rotation worthy of October.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
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Record: 54-43 (3rd in AL East)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.4 (21st)
No speculation is required here. As Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported on Sunday, the Blue Jays have already expressed "strong interest" in Stroman.
As he spent his first five-and-a-half seasons north of the border, Stroman is no stranger to the Toronto organization. And the need is certainly there. Kevin Gausman and José Berríos are having strong seasons, but Toronto's rotation has otherwise been the definition of "dicey."
If there's a catch here, it's that Stroman's elite 57.8 ground-ball percentage wouldn't mesh with a Blue Jays infield that's posted minus-13 Outs Above Average. But since the Jays are also tied for the sixth-lowest average allowed on ground balls, it's possible OAA is overstating the problem.
Trade Proposal: Blue Jays get RHP Marcus Stroman, INF BJ Murray Jr. and $4 Million, Cubs get 3B/SS Addison Barger
For starters, nobody should be surprised if the Cubs indeed have to include money in a Stroman trade. If not to cover the remainder of his 2023 salary, then to help pay for next year's salary in the event he opts in.
In any case, not a big fan of this proposal even though it technically checks out. The Cubs almost certainly wouldn't give up a prospect in addition to cash in a Stroman deal, much less for the No. 3 talent in a system ranked by B/R's Joel Reuter at No. 25 in MLB.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
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Record: 60-40 (2nd in AL East)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.0 (T-4th)
There's no speculation required here either. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic said on Monday's "Onto Waveland" podcast that the Rays are doing their homework on Stroman.
With Shane McClanahan having recently returned off the IL, the Rays wouldn't need Stroman to be their ace. But they need him all the same. With Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen out for the year and rookie Taj Bradley having hit a wall in his last four outings, rotation depth has become a big problem for the Rays.
Contrary to the Blue Jays, the Rays have played very good infield defense to the tune of plus-9 Outs Above Average and the second-lowest average allowed on ground balls. To these ends, the grounder-happy Stroman would be a natural fit.
Trade Proposal: Rays get RHP Marcus Stroman and $2 Million, Cubs get INF Osleivis Basabe
It's a top-heavy system the Rays have, with four of their five best prospects falling within the top half of Reuter's top 100. Because of his contract situation, however, it's not a given that Stroman could bring back any one of those on his own.
Basabe, who checks in at No. 95 in said rankings, is a more sensible target. He's just not a very inspiring one, as his profile is more so that of a useful, versatile player than that of a future star. The Cubs can do better.
3. Baltimore Orioles
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Record: 59-37 (1st in AL East)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 4.3 (22nd)
It's not all bad in the Orioles rotation. Tyler Wells boasts an MLB-leading 0.98 WHIP, while Kyle Bradish has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts.
For the most part, though, the O's are another contender that's succeeded in spite of its starting pitching, not because of it. Getting a pitcher like Stroman for the stretch run and October, where he would presumably be their Game 1 starter, would be huge.
Because Baltimore's infield defense is at minus-9 Outs Above Average, this is another seemingly less-than-perfect defensive fit for Stroman. Yet they could cater to Stroman's strengths by lining up Jorge Mateo and Jordan Westburg behind him when he pitches. Both are strong defenders.
Trade Proposal: Orioles get RHP Marcus Stroman and $3 Million, Cubs get INF/OF Connor Norby
The Orioles checked in at No. 1 in Reuter's latest rankings of the top farm systems in MLB, thus making them an ideal trading partner for the Cubs—or any team—in theory. The obligatory question is nonetheless whether Stroman alone could lure one of Baltimore's top guys.
To this end, Norby isn't a top-100 guy for us but he places at No. 66 in MLB.com's rankings. That may well be a fair assessment, as his .292 average and .841 OPS in 95 games at the Triple-A level leave little doubt he can hit.
2. Houston Astros
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Record: 54-43 (2nd in AL West)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.7 (6th)
The Astros are yet another team with interest in Stroman, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. And in this case, there's a twist: Houston also likes Cody Bellinger.
We'll get to him in a minute, but for now let's grant that the Astros need another impact starter to slot behind Framber Valdez. He's arguably the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award, but neither Hunter Brown nor Christian Javier has pitched like a No. 2 this year.
If the defending World Series champs were to acquire Stroman, they'd suddenly have three of the league's top four ground-ball pitchers in their rotation. It's a good thing their infield defense, which is above water at plus-2 Outs Above Average, would be up to the challenge.
Trade Proposal: Astros get RHP Marcus Stroman, CF/1B Cody Bellinger and $3 Million, Cubs get OF Drew Gilbert
As to Bellinger, the Astros would presumably use the left-handed hitter in tandem with José Abreu at first base and Jake Meyers in center field. Both swing right-handed.
Far from watering it down, including Bellinger in a Stroman trade package would boost its value. Enough, perhaps, to land Gilbert with only a little money included. He ranks at No. 86 for Reuter and at No. 70 for MLB.com, and his stock is up after a quick promotion to Double-A earlier this year.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Record: 55-40 (1st in NL West)
Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.6 (14th)
As the trade deadline draws near, from Jon Morosi of MLB.com comes word that the Dodgers have their eye on at least one ace pitcher:
Stroman and Lucas Giolito are, of course, not the same person. But Stroman is presently playing the part of a top-of-the-rotation starter better than Giolito, and goodness knows the Dodgers have a need for one of those help them stay afloat amid a flood of injuries.
As to the matter of infield work, the best defense of the Dodgers is the same as that of the Blue Jays: their infield looks better through the lens of average on ground balls (11th) than through Outs Above Average (T-25th).
Proposed Trade: Dodgers get RHP Marcus Stroman and $3 Million, Cubs get RHP Nick Frasso
If the Cubs are going to trade with the Dodgers, the idea should be to get their hands on one of the latter's up and coming pitchers. Yes, even if they have to pay extra to make it happen.
If they go for Frasso, they'd get a guy with a high-octane fastball who Reuter rates as the No. 63 prospect in baseball. He's currently in the middle of a breakout season at Double-A, where he's struck out 64 against only 13 walks in 47 innings. Not a bad deal, in other words.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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