Ranking New York Mets SP Max Scherzer's Potential Landing Spots amid Trade Rumors
At 38 years old with a full no-trade clause, about $15 million in prorated salary still due this season, a $43.3 million player option for 2024 and his worst ERA (4.20) in over a decade, Max Scherzer hypothetically should be one of the most untradeable players in the majors.
Still, trade rumors involving Scherzer have been swirling over the past month. ESPN's Buster Olney reported Sunday morning that the Mets are "measured sellers" heading into the trade deadline, and he specifically noted Scherzer could be on the move.
If the 46-53 New York Mets are willing to wave the white flag and start unloading salaries—and if Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause—there will surely be teams interested in this three-time Cy Young winner.
Unlike impending free agents Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman, whom roughly half of MLB will pursue, Scherzer's 2024 player option significantly limits his list of viable landing spots. While Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Tampa Bay are likely interested in trading for a starting pitcher or two, there's no way those small-market clubs can commit 30-50 percent of next year's payroll to one pitcher.
Still, we've come up with the five best spots where Scherzer could play out the rest of this season.
All references to farm system/prospect rankings come from our Joel Reuter, who shortly after the draft re-ranked all 30 farm systems and provided an updated top 100 prospects ranking (plus 50 honorable mentions).
5. Boston Red Sox
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Farm System: SS Marcelo Mayer (9), IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela (72), C Kyle Teel (77), OF Miguel Bleis (89), 2B Nick Yorke (97), OF Roman Anthony (HM)
Current Rotation: Brayan Bello, James Paxton, Kutter Crawford, Two Rotating Openers (Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Corey Kluber all on the IL with an August return plausible for each)
Team SP fWAR: 4.8 (26th)
Record/Standing: 53-47, 8.5 GB in AL East, 2.0 GB for AL No. 6 seed
From June 30 through July 17, the Red Sox won 11 of 13 games, vaulting themselves back into the postseason conversation. And in addition to the four injured pitchers listed above, Trevor Story just began a rehab assignment over the weekend and could make his 2023 debut right around the trade deadline.
If the Red Sox do anything within the next week, they're far more likely to buy than sell. And if they're buying, they'll almost certainly be buying starting pitchers.
They have eight guys who have made at least eight starts this season, but most of them have not done well. Even in what has been a down year by Scherzer's standards—and even after allowing four home runs at Fenway Park on Saturday night—he would immediately become the ace of this mediocre staff.
On the financial side of the equation, bringing in Scherzer would put Boston a few million dollars above the luxury-tax threshold, which is right where they ended last year, too. And as far as next season goes, it wouldn't be all that comfortable, but they could make it work.
Just between Scherzer, Rafael Devers, Chris Sale, Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen, they'd be at $157.2 million. But this is a franchise that has finished each of the last 21 non-pandemic-truncated seasons ranked top six in payroll, including finishing each of 2018, 2019 and 2022 north of $217 million. They can find the money.
The real question here is how much faith Boston has in those injured starters—in particular, the oft-injured Sale—coming back and making a real impact down the stretch.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Farm System: SS Jordan Lawlar (16), OF Druw Jones (18), RHP Brandon Pfaadt (30), OF Dominic Fletcher (HM), IF Tommy Troy (HM)
Current Rotation: Zac Gallen, Tommy Henry, Ryne Nelson, ???, ?????? (Merrill Kelly and Zach Davies on the IL with the potential to return soon)
Team SP fWAR: 6.3 (16th)
Record/Standing: 54-46, 4.0 GB in NL West, 0.5-game cushion over NL No. 7 seed
The Diamondbacks gave up on Scherzer too soon a decade-and-a-half ago.
He was their first-round pick in 2006, made it to the bigs in 2008 and started 30 games for Arizona in 2009. But that offseason, they traded him and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit in a three-team swap that netted them Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Kennedy served them well for a few seasons, but nothing compared to the levels of greatness that Scherzer reached.
Could they bring his career full circle by bringing him back to where he got his start? The Diamondbacks certainly need the pitching help.
MLB.com's Jon Morosi reported Friday that the Snakes had reached out to the White Sox about impending free agent Lucas Giolito. Granted, Giolito would cost about $11.5 million less than Scherzer this season, and he doesn't come with the baggage of a $43.3 million player option for 2024. There's a reason why nearly half the league is in the hunt for Giolito while it's a challenge to find a viable match for Scherzer.
After how poorly the Madison Bumgarner signing went for them, who could blame the Diamondbacks if they're feeling reluctant to reinvest in an expensive arm with a ton of mileage on it? But if they can get Scherzer, they have to at least consider it.
Even with their recent struggles, they're in a good position to make the postseason for the first time since 2017. However, after Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the rotation gets iffy in a hurry, and you need at least a third solid starter to have hope of doing real damage in October.
3. Houston Astros
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Farm System: OF Drew Gilbert (86), OF Ryan Clifford (HM)
Current Rotation: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Brandon Bielak (Jose Urquidy should return from the IL soon)
Team SP fWAR: 8.6 (6th)
Record/Standing: 56-44, 3.0 GB in AL West, 3.0-game cushion above AL No. 7 seed
Saddled with arguably the worst current farm system, Houston doesn't have much to offer as far as prospects are concerned. So if the Mets are looking for both salary relief and a nice haul of MLB-ready talent in exchange for Scherzer, this probably isn't a great match.
The Astros can at least afford to take on his salary, though.
Per Spotrac's luxury-tax tracker, Houston has $17.5 million in "cap space" before hitting the competitive balance tax threshold—a margin into which Scherzer's roughly $15 million in remaining salary would snugly fit.
Finding the room in the budget for his full $43.3 million next year could be trickier. But with both Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve scheduled to hit free agency after 2024, it's already going to be something of an all-in season for the Astros.
Trading for Scherzer would substantially improve their chances of repeating as World Series champs, as losing both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia to season-ending injuries has forced the Astros to rely on inexperienced arms who could be headed for regression any day now.
Both J.P. France (3.13 ERA, 4.43 FIP) and Brandon Bielak (3.46, 5.13 FIP) have pitched well over the past two months, but can they keep it up for another two months? And can they be trusted in October?
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Farm System: C Diego Cartaya (15), 2B Michael Busch (32), RHP Emmet Sheehan (40), C Dalton Rushing (54), RHP Nick Frasso (63), OF Andy Pages (68), RHP Gavin Stone (HM), C Thayron Liranzo (HM), OF Josue De Paula (HM)
Current Rotation: Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías, Bobby Miller, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan (Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Ryan Pepiot on the IL with the potential to return soon)
Team SP fWAR: 6.7 (15th)
Record/Standing: 57-41, 4.0-game lead in NL West, 4.5-game cushion above NL No. 7 seed
There are better, less expensive options for the Dodgers to spruce up their questionable starting pitching, most notably the Chicago duo of Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman. And with it beginning to feel like a foregone conclusion that they'll trade for at least one of those arms, there hasn't been much reason to speculate about them making the expensive decision to handcuff themselves to Scherzer for the next season-and-a-half.
But what if they whiff on those two guys? What if Tampa Bay, Baltimore or Arizona wins the bidding war for the White Sox ace? And what if the Cubs decide that 5.5 games back of a wild-card spot and 6.5 games back in the NL Central is close enough to give it the ol' college try and hang onto both Stroman and Cody Bellinger? (Let's not forget they neglected to trade away Willson Contreras at last year's deadline.)
In that scenario, Scherzer to the Dodgers becomes a much more likely outcome, because there is no denying that Los Angeles needs starting pitching.
Since the beginning of June, Dodgers starters have had a cumulative ERA of 4.82. That's including currently injured Clayton Kershaw making five starts with a 1.09 ERA. Take his numbers out of the equation, and it balloons to 5.58.
And if push comes to shove, you know they can find the money. They're already over the luxury-tax threshold, but they've spent about $43.5 million less than they did last season, and they have all sorts of money coming off the books this offseason.
Yes, the Dodgers would love to reallocate those funds to Shohei Ohtani in the upcoming free agency window, but they are presently on the hook for only $109 million in 2024. There are a bunch of unknown and unaccounted for arbitration-eligible figures in there, but no one who figures to break the bank. They could find the room to dedicate roughly $100 million just to Scherzer and Ohtani next year.
1. San Francisco Giants
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Farm System: LHP Kyle Harrison (14), OF Luis Matos (55), SS Marco Luciano (67), LHP Carson Whisenhunt (70)
Current Rotation: Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling
Team SP fWAR: 5.0 (23rd)
Record/Standing: 54-46, 4.0 GB in NL West, 0.5-game cushion above NL No. 7 seed
If the Mets do make Scherzer available, San Francisco is the best candidate to get him.
Needs pitching? Sure does. Logan Webb and Alex Cobb have been great, but the rest of the rotation has been replacement level at best. Scherzer hasn't had a vintage season by any means, but he would easily be at least the Giants' third-best starter the rest of the way.
Can afford him? Well, this past offseason, they tried to sign Aaron Judge to a massive contract and signed Carlos Correa to that 13-year, $350 million deal before backing out of it because of concerns that came up during his physical. They did repurpose most of the 2023 portion of that Correa deal into signing both Taylor Rogers and Michael Conforto, but the point is that they were willing to spend to make a big splash.
Assuming the Mets don't throw in any money, bringing in Scherzer would put the Giants a few million above the luxury-tax threshold. That shouldn't be a deal-breaker. They were well below it last year and wouldn't have to worry about any sort of repeat offender premiums.
And that $43.3 million player option for next season? They've got $48.15 million coming off the books with Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford and Alex Wood all hitting free agency. Plus, there's a good chance Conforto declines his $18 million player option. Trading for Scherzer would just be an early rearrangement of those funds.
If all that isn't enough, MLB.com's Jon Morosi tweeted Saturday that the Giants have been "evaluating Justin Verlander as a trade deadline candidate." And if they're thinking about signing a 40-year-old who is owed $43.3 million in 2024 with a $35 million vesting option for 2025, they should also at least be kicking the tires on a Scherzer trade.
Trading for either Mets ace and then signing Shohei Ohtani this offseason would send the Giants' 2024 payroll to the moon. But they might as well go for it this year and figure out later how to handle that abundance of riches if they do manage to win the Ohtani sweepstakes.
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