MLB Mock Draft 2023: Predictions for 1st-Round Picks, College World Series Edition
The college baseball season is in the books after LSU crushed Florida in the decisive Game 3 to win the College World Series Monday night. With the games on the field over, the focus now turns to the upcoming MLB draft.
This year's event will again be held during the MLB All-Star break, with the first round kicking off on July 9.
The 2023 draft class is headlined by LSU teammates Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, who have long been expected to go 1-2 in the draft. Behind them is a deep class of college hitters and high school middle infielders, and there could be only a handful of pitchers chosen in the first round.
We published our first 2023 mock draft on Dec. 22 and that was followed by updates on May 10 and June 9. Now it's time for another attempt at projecting how this year's talent grab will unfold when the clock starts ticking on the Pittsburgh Pirates at No. 1 overall on July 9.
Ahead, you'll find full analysis for each of the 28 first-round picks, as well as quick-hit selections for the Compensation Round and the Competitive Balance Round A for a total of 39 projected picks.
Note: The New York Mets (No. 32 overall) and Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 36 overall) both had their first selection moved back 10 spots as a result of luxury-tax penalties, so they will not have a first-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Nos. 1-3
1 of 10
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Dylan Crews, LSU
The consensus No. 1 overall pick all spring, Crews is hitting .418/.562/.707 with 16 doubles, 18 home runs, 69 RBI and more walks (70) than strikeouts (46) in 69 games heading into the College World Series. There is a non-zero chance that his LSU teammate, Skenes, could be the pick if the Pirates decided to prioritize pitching, but the smart money is still on Crews being the first name off the board.
2. Washington Nationals: RHP Paul Skenes, LSU
The first college pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts since Trevor Bauer in 2011, Skenes has been virtually unhittable all season, going 12-2 with a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 209 strikeouts in 122.2 innings. The 6'6" right-hander routinely hits triple-digits with his fastball and carries that velocity late into games, and he backs his heater with a lethal 70-grade slider. The team that drafts him will have no reason to rush him, but he could slot into an MLB rotation right now.
3. Detroit Tigers: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida
Also still in action after the Florida Gators punched their ticket to the College World Series, Langford is hitting .360/.488/.750 with 26 doubles, 19 home runs, 49 RBI and 78 runs scored in 62 games. The Tigers' new front office figures to value his high floor and overall polish relative to prep outfielders Max Clark and Wyatt Jenkins in their first draft cycle.
Nos. 4-6
2 of 10
4. Texas Rangers: OF Max Clark, Franklin High School (IN)
It looks like the Rangers will be picking between high school outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins, with Clark offering a more well-rounded game and five-tool potential, while Jenkins has a higher floor and a more polished offensive game. There is also an outside chance the Rangers could try to cut a below-slot deal here since their next pick is not until the fourth round and they could try for an above-slot signing there.
5. Minnesota Twins: OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick High School (NC)
With a clearly defined group of five prospects making up the top tier of talent in this draft class, the easy projection is to give the Twins whoever is still available from that collection of players. That said, Keith Law of The Athletic reported that some expect them to go with a college player, so don't rule out Kyle Teel, Jacob Wilson or Jacob Gonzalez.
6. Oakland Athletics: SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon
In today's era of launch angle and sky-high strikeout rates, Wilson is a throwback who has built his offensive game around a standout hit tool and elite bat-to-ball skills. The 6'3" shortstop struck out just 31 times in 697 plate appearances during his three years at Grand Canyon, including only five punchouts this spring. He may never be a true power threat, but he did post a .635 slugging percentage this season after tallying 12 home runs as a sophomore.
Nos. 7-9
3 of 10
7. Cincinnati Reds: C Kyle Teel, Virginia
It sounds like the Reds are focused on the college trio of Teel and pitchers Rhett Lowder and Chase Dollander, with prep right-hander Noble Meyer as a dark-horse target. Far and away the best catcher in this draft class, Teel hit .407/.475/.655 with 25 doubles, 13 home runs and 69 RBI while checking all the boxes to stick behind the plate long-term, and his overall polish could fit with the team's current contention window.
8. Kansas City Royals: RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit High School (OR)
The Royals have mostly been tied to high school players in pre-draft rumblings, with Meyer and shortstop Arjun Nimmala among the most frequently mentioned names. Meyer is widely regarded as the best high school pitcher in this class, and it's not hard to see why. He has a projectable 6'5", 185-pound frame, and he touched 100 mph with his fastball this spring while showing the makings of a plus slider/changeup combination.
9. Colorado Rockies: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest
As usual, the Rockies most glaring organizational need is pitching, and they went with a high-floor college arm with their first pick last year when they took Gonzaga right-hander Gabriel Hughes at No. 10 overall. He may not have the same electric stuff as LSU star Skenes, but Lowder was every bit as effective this season, going 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 120.1 innings on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and an elite changeup.
Nos. 10-12
4 of 10
10. Miami Marlins: SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
The Marlins would likely pounce if Kyle Teel or Jacob Wilson slid to this spot, but with both college standouts off the board, they will turn their focus to a deep high school shortstop class. With the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, plus raw power and a good enough hit tool that he can make the most of his pop, Nimmala has the highest ceiling among the prep shortstops, while Colin Houck is not far behind and also in play here.
11. Los Angeles Angels: RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida
Waldrep has, arguably, the best pure stuff among college pitchers not named Paul Skenes, and after an inconsistent spring, his stock has climbed with a strong late-season run while helping pitch the Gators to the College World Series. He struggled with his command on Sunday against LSU, but he had posted a 0.86 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 21 innings over his previous three starts.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Colin Houck, Parkview High School (GA)
"This still feels like a landing spot for whomever the D-backs feel is the best high school bat available," wrote Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.
With Nimmala off the board, Houck gets the nod with a 55-hit/55-power offensive profile that should play just fine at third base if he ultimately outgrows shortstop as his 6'2", 190-pound frame fills out. Other prep hitters to watch here include Aidan Miller and Blake Mitchell.
Nos. 13-15
5 of 10
13. Chicago Cubs: IF Matt Shaw, Maryland
With a high floor and good all-around polish that should allow him to move quickly through the minors, Shaw fits a similar mold to guys like Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner who were also first-round picks by the Cubs. He has seen time at second base, shortstop and third base, and he hit .341/.445/.697 with 20 doubles, 24 home runs, 69 RBI and 18 steals to win Big Ten Player of the Year honors.
14. Boston Red Sox: RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee
A candidate to go No. 1 overall heading into the spring after finishing 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 79 innings as a sophomore, Dollander took a step backward and eventually lost the Friday starter role. The 6'2" right-hander finished 7-6 with a 4.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 120 strikeouts in 89 innings while his walk rate climbed from 4.2 to 7.8 percent. Despite those middling results, he still has the stuff to develop into a frontline starter, and the Red Sox are the perfect team to roll the dice on that upside.
15. Chicago White Sox: 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami
The White Sox have been "linked heavily" to Morales and TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor in recent weeks, according to Keith Law of The Athletic, and they are in a spot where they have a long list of college bats to choose from. A three-year standout for the Hurricanes, Morales hit .408/.475/.713 with 13 doubles, 20 home runs and 70 RBI this spring, and while there is some swing-and-miss to his game, it's offset by his power potential and solid glove at the hot corner.
Nos. 16-18
6 of 10
16. San Francisco Giants: OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt
The Giants have not had a prototypical leadoff hitter or a true everyday center fielder since Angel Pagán filled both roles almost a decade ago, and Bradfield has the potential to fill both roles. With true 80-grade speed he is a game-changer on the base paths, swiping 130 bases in 143 attempts during his three years at Vanderbilt, and he also hit .311/.426/.447 during his time on campus.
17. Baltimore Orioles: 3B Brayden Taylor, TCU
With their window of contention finally opening, it would make sense for the Orioles to focus on college players, and Taylor is part of a group in this section of the draft that also includes Jacob Gonzalez, Tommy Troy and Brock Wilken. The TCU star hit .308/.430/.631 with 15 doubles, 23 home runs and 70 RBI, and he has also seen time at second base. Two-way prep standout Bryce Eldridge could be a dark horse here.
18. Milwaukee Brewers: SS Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss
Gonzalez won Freshman of the Year honors in 2021 when he hit .355/.443/.561 with 16 doubles, 12 home runs and 55 RBI in 67 games, and while he never quite took another step forward, he had a stellar three-year career at Ole Miss. This is the lowest we've had him go in any mock draft, and he could easily hear his name called several spots higher. College hitters seem to be the obvious target for anyone drafting in the 15-20 range this year.
Nos. 19-21
7 of 10
19. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell High School (FL)
The Rays have always targeted players with a loud carrying tool, and Miller has some of the best raw power from this year's high school crop. The 6'2", 205-pound third baseman is already 19 years old, but he has the physical maturity to overcome the fact that he is on the older end of the prep scale. This is another team that could take a serious look at two-way player Bryce Eldridge.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: IF Tommy Troy, Stanford
The top draft prospect on a Stanford team that reached the College World Series, Troy hit .394/.478/.699 with 17 doubles, 17 home runs and 17 steals in 58 games this spring to help erase some concerns about his impact potential offensively. The Blue Jays could also take an opportunistic approach in this spot and go after some of the high school players who slip due to this year's deep college class.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (MA)
White is the best left-hander in this year's high school class, and he offers a ton of long-term upside with a projectable 6'5", 210-pound frame, a big fastball and a good feel for his curveball and changeup. The Cardinals have had a lot of success drafting hitters in recent years, but their pitching pipeline has run a bit dry in the process and White would give them a young arm with ace potential.
Nos. 22-24
8 of 10
22. Seattle Mariners: 1B/OF Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic
The Mariners have the seventh-largest bonus pool and pick again at No. 29 and No. 30, so the expectation is that they will opt for a safe college player here before targeting some high-ceiling prep players who may require above-slot deals in the compensatory round. Schanuel does not offer much defensive value and he is a below-average athlete, but he can rake. The 21-year-old hit .447/.615/.868 with 18 doubles, 19 home runs, 64 RBI and 71 walks against just 14 strikeouts in 59 games this spring.
23. Cleveland Guardians: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest
Wilken's season ended on a sour note as he went 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts in three games against LSU at the College World Series, but that doesn't erase the fact that he hit .345/.506/.807 with 31 home runs, 82 RBI and more walks (69) than strikeouts (58) overall this spring. The 6'4", 225-pound slugger launched 71 home runs in his three seasons at Wake Forest, and he has swung wood bats well in the Cape Cod League the last two summers.
24. Atlanta Braves: SS George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep (FL)
The Braves farm system is sorely lacking in position-player talent right now, so expect this pick to be a hitter, and Lombard has been trending up all spring to move squarely into the first-round conversation. His father was a second-round pick by the Braves in 1994 and the current bench coach for the Detroit Tigers, so he has the baseball bloodlines to go along with a projectable 6'3", 190-pound frame and intriguing power potential.
Nos. 25-28
9 of 10
25. San Diego Padres: OF Dillon Head, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
A.J. Preller and the Padres front office have long targeted upside over polish, and Head fits the bill as a tooled-up high school outfielder from the Chicagoland area. An elite athlete with 80-grade speed and a good enough hit tool to make the most of those wheels offensively, he also profiles as one of the best defensive center fielders in this class.
26. New York Yankees: SS Sammy Stafura, Panas High School (NY)
The Yankees have been tied to Stafura throughout the predraft process, making this link perhaps the worst-kept secret of the 2023 draft cycle. At this point, it feels like the only way he doesn't wind up in the Yankees system is if he's already off the board, and Cleveland at No. 23 is a possibility. His combination of power, speed and defense has given him as much helium as any high school player this spring.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: C Blake Mitchell, Sinton High School (TX)
The fact that Mitchell was slotted No. 8 overall by Keith Law and No. 31 overall by Jonathan Mayo in their most recent mock drafts speaks to just how polarizing a high school catching prospect can be, and with good reason given their high bust rate over the years. He has a 55-hit/55-power offensive profile and a rocket arm that saw him touch 97 mph on the mound, giving him a high enough ceiling for the Phillies to take a risk.
28. Houston Astros: 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, Madison High School (VA)
The consensus seems to be that Eldridge will be drafted as a hitter, with his towering 6'7", 223-pound frame offering some of the best power potential in the draft class, but he is also a legitimate first-round prospect on the mound with a mid-90s fastball, plus slider and smooth mechanics. The Astros took a similar prospect in Joe Perez in the second round of the 2017 draft.
Compensation/Competitive Balance A Picks
10 of 10
Compensation Picks
Under the new CBA, if a rookie is on a team's Opening Day roster and he goes on to win Rookie of the Year, the club is awarded a compensation pick immediately following the first round. As a result, Julio Rodríguez earned the Mariners the No. 29 overall selection.
29. Seattle Mariners: SS Colt Emerson, Glenn High School (OH)
Competitive Balance Round A Picks
Teams that are one of the bottom 10 in market size or bottom 10 in revenue pool are awarded a bonus pick after the first or second round, with teams alternating between the two rounds each year.
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers also fall in this section as both teams had their first pick moved back 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold by more than $40 million.
30. Seattle Mariners: LHP Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken HS (RI)
31. Tampa Bay Rays: LHP Joe Whitman, Kent State
32. New York Mets: SS Walker Martin, Eaton High School (CO)
33. Milwaukee Brewers: OF Chase Davis, Arizona
34. Minnesota Twins: IF Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner (PA)
35. Miami Marlins: OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian Academy (FL)
37. Detroit Tigers: 3B Eric Bitonti, Aquinas HS (CA)
38. Cincinnati Reds: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia
39. Oakland Athletics: C/1B Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach HS (CA)
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while scouting information comes via MLB.com and Baseball America.
.jpg?w=600 "Schefter: 2 Teams Highest on Simpson")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers Give OT New $50M Deal")
.png?w=600 "Final Draft Prospect Rankings 📊")
.jpg?w=600 "Latest Cowboys, Browns Draft Rumors")
