MLB Mock Draft 2023: Early Predictions for Every 1st-Round Selection
Following the first-ever MLB draft lottery at the annual winter meetings earlier this month, it's time for our first official 2023 mock draft!
There is still a lot of time for prospects to rise and fall during the upcoming spring seasons, but this draft class has already taken shape on the strength of 2022 performances during the high school and college campaigns, as well as on the summer showcase circuit for high school players and in the Cape Cod League and for Team USA at the college level.
Let this first mock draft serve as a general snapshot of the draft class and an early list of who to keep an eye on once the 2023 seasons get underway.
Ahead you'll find a full analysis of each of the 28 first-round picks, as well as quick-hit selections for the Compensation Round and the Competitive Balance Round A for a total of 39 projected picks.
Note: The New York Mets (No. 32 overall) and Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 36 overall) both had their first selection moved back 10 spots as a result of luxury-tax penalties, so they will not have a first-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Nos. 1-3
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1. Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Dylan Crews, LSU
The consensus top talent in the 2023 draft class, Crews hit .349/.463/.691 with 22 home runs and 72 RBI in 62 games as a sophomore, and he was equally impressive during his freshman season. He does have some swing-and-miss to his game, but he is well-rounded enough offensively to become a middle-of-the-order slugger and perennial All-Star at a corner outfield spot.
2. Washington Nationals: RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee
According to MLB.com, Dollander "may be the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg (2009) and Gerrit Cole (2011)," and the numbers and eye test both back that up. The 6'3" right-hander finished 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 108 strikeouts in 79 innings last year, and he features a fastball that has touched 99 mph, a hard-biting slider and a good changeup and curveball. He's a strong candidate to go No. 1 overall.
3. Detroit Tigers: OF Max Clark, Franklin High School (IN)
Clark offers a full toolbox with a 60-grade hit tool, 70-grade speed and the elite athleticism needed to be a standout defensive center fielder. He hit .577/.717/1.126 with 31 walks and three strikeouts as a junior last spring, and while his present approach is contact over power, he should develop into at least a 20-homer threat thanks to his bat speed and smooth left-handed swing.
Nos. 4-6
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4. Texas Rangers: SS Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss
After posting a 1.005 OPS, 12 home runs and 55 RBI to win National Freshman of the Year honors and help Ole Miss win a national championship in 2021, Gonzalez hit .273/.405/.558 with 18 home runs during his sophomore season. He was the starting shortstop and hit in the middle of the lineup for Team USA over the summer, and he'll be one of the faces of college baseball this spring.
5. Minnesota Twins: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida
Langford tallied just four plate appearances as a freshman, but he broke out in a big way last spring, hitting .356/.447/.719 with 26 home runs and 63 RBI in 66 games. With his strong 6'1", 225-pound frame and a smooth swing, Langford's power is a safe bet to play at the next level, and he offers above-average speed and strong outfield defense. He could push his way into the No. 1 overall conversation with more of the same this spring.
6. Oakland Athletics: RHP Paul Skenes, LSU
A big 6'6", 235-pound right-hander, Skenes went 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 96 strikeouts in 85.2 innings at Air Force last spring, and he hit .314/.412/.634 with 13 home runs while serving as designated hitter. He'll get a chance to prove himself against elite competition after he transferred to LSU, and after showing an uptick in velocity during fall practice, he has some early helium as one of the top arms in the 2023 class.
Nos. 7-9
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7. Cincinnati Reds: OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick High School (NC)
With a strong 6'3", 205-pound frame, Jenkins looks the part of a future MLB slugger, and he backs his 60-grade power with a 55-grade hit tool that greatly increases his odds of fully tapping into that pop. He hit .527/.628/1.032 with 10 home runs in 121 plate appearances as a junior after playing for the U18 Team USA squad as an underclassman the previous summer.
8. Kansas City Royals: SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon
Wilson struck out just seven times in 275 plate appearances during his sophomore season, hitting .358/.418/.585 with 18 doubles, 12 home runs and 65 RBI while making a smooth transition from playing third base as a freshman to the starting shortstop role. He has one of the most polished hit tools in the class and profiles well at either spot on the left side of the infield. The son of former MLB shortstop Jack Wilson, he also has the baseball bloodlines teams often gravitate toward.
9. Colorado Rockies: RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida
After pitching out of the bullpen as a freshman, Waldrep went 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 140 strikeouts in 90 innings during his sophomore season at Southern Mississippi. Now he'll make the move to the SEC after transferring to Florida. His fastball touches the upper 90s, and he has a wipeout slider that generated a 53 percent whiff rate, but his changeup remains a work in progress as a viable third pitch, and there is some effort in his delivery. This would be a high-upside play for a Rockies team perpetually in need of pitching.
Nos. 10-12
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10. Miami Marlins: OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt
Bradfield is an elite speed threat, having swiped 93 bases in 129 games during his two seasons at Vanderbilt, but he also possesses a 55-grade hit tool that should allow him to be more than just the next Billy Hamilton. He doesn't try to do too much offensively and has hit .327/.433/.456 with more walks (86) than strikeouts (82) in 597 plate appearances the past two years.
11. Los Angeles Angels: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest
After struggling to a 6.12 ERA in 67.2 innings as a freshman, Lowder took a huge step forward last spring, winning ACC Pitcher of the Year honors while going 11-3 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 105-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 99.1 innings. With a polished three-pitch repertoire and a maxed-out 6'2", 200-pound frame, he is more floor than ceiling, but there is plenty of value in a pitcher who is a safe bet to stick as a starter.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: C Blake Mitchell, Sinton High School (TX)
One of the better two-way players in the 2023 class, Mitchell has been up to 97 mph with his fastball while also showing a plus curveball, but his future is likely behind the plate, where he has strong receiving skills, a rocket arm and the potential to be a standout offensive player at the position. The D-backs have shown a willingness to get creative with multitalented players over the years, from Micah Owings playing both ways to Daulton Varsho seeing time at catcher and in the outfield in 2022.
Nos. 13-15
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13. Chicago Cubs: 3B Brayden Taylor, TCU
Taylor has more remaining physical projection than most college hitters, as he has room to add muscle to his 6'1", 175-pound frame. He hit .314/.454/.576 with 14 doubles, 13 home runs, 50 RBI and 10 steals in 59 games as a sophomore, and then logged a .941 OPS and three long balls in 11 games in the Cape Cod League. He does a little bit of everything and does it all well.
14. Boston Red Sox: 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell High School (FL)
Prep sluggers often climb draft boards late in the evaluating process, and Miller profiles as one of the best in the 2023 class. He has looked comfortable against elite velocity on the showcase circuit, and there is good present power in his 6'2", 210-pound frame with room to add more in the coming years. He has everything needed to develop into a prototypical power-hitting third baseman.
15. Chicago White Sox: RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina
Sanders has added 20 pounds of muscle to his lanky 6'6" frame since stepping onto campus at South Carolina, and there is physical projection remaining. He had a 3.43 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 89.1 innings as a sophomore, but his walk rate climbed from 1.9 to 3.1 per nine innings relative to a strong freshman campaign. More consistency with his secondary pitches and his command will be the key to cementing his place in the top half of the first round.
Nos. 16-18
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16. San Francisco Giants: 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami
Morales hit .329/.411/.650 with 17 doubles, 18 home runs and 59 RBI in 60 games as a sophomore, and if he can improve on a 21.4 percent strikeout rate, he could easily jump into the top 10. He hit .400 for Team USA over the summer and checks all the boxes to be a plus defender at third base. The big question is whether he's a 40-grade or 50-grade hit-tool guy. Fun fact: We share a birthday.
17. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit High School (OR)
For those keeping track, this is the first high school pitcher off the board in what is shaping up to be a relatively weak crop of prep arms. That said, Meyer can be a front-line starter if everything falls into place. With a projectable 6'5", 185-pound frame, three plus pitches headlined by an upper-90s fastball and advanced command, he is the consensus top high school arm in the class heading into the 2023 season.
18. Milwaukee Brewers: IF Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner (PA)
McGonigle may wind up at second base because of his limited range, but he has more than enough offensive upside to provide first-round value there. The Pennsylvania prep standout hit .457/.582/.975 with 11 home runs and just two strikeouts in 110 plate appearances during his junior season before impressing on the showcase circuit for the second straight summer, and his 60-grade hit tool will drive his draft stock.
Nos. 19-21
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19. Tampa Bay Rays: IF Matt Shaw, Maryland
Shaw took home 2022 Cape Cod League MVP honors by hitting .360/.432/.574 with 10 doubles, five home runs and 21 steals in 36 games, and his draft stock is trending up as a result. He has played second base, shortstop, third base and at all three outfield spots during his time on campus, and second base might be his best long-term fit because of a below-average arm. His offensive polish and high floor should mean he moves quickly through the minors.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (MA)
With a projectable 6'5" frame from the left side and power stuff, White should be one of the first high school pitchers off the board in 2023. His fastball sat in the mid-90s as a junior and he backed it with a high-spin curveball and a quality changeup. There is still plenty of room to grow into his 210-pound frame, and that remaining upside could make him a tough sign away from a strong Vanderbilt commitment.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College
After a breakout sophomore season (184 PA, .329/.402/.506, 16 XBH) and a strong showing in the Cape Cod League (100 PA, .289/.400/.530, 12 XBH), Honeyman is trending up heading into his junior campaign. His tools are average or better across the board, and his bat-to-ball skills are some of the best in the 2023 class. That should help him climb into the back of the first round.
Nos. 22-24
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22. Seattle Mariners: IF Tommy Troy, Stanford
Troy gave his draft stock an early boost last summer by hitting .310/.386/.531 with 13 extra-base hits in 30 games in the Cape Cod League. He has played on both sides of the second base bag in college and has seen some time in the outfield, and while he'll likely be Stanford's starting shortstop in 2023, his future could be as an offensive-minded super-utility player. His high floor and defensive versatility help him fit as the type of player the Mariners have targeted in years past.
23. Cleveland Guardians: RHP Travis Sykora, Round Rock High School (TX)
Few teams do a better job of developing pitching talent than the Guardians. Sykora has some of the best pure stuff in the 2023 class with a 70-grade fastball that has touched 101 mph and two swing-and-miss offspeed pitches in a tight slider and a splitter. He also repeats his delivery well given his 6'6" frame. His asking price could be high since he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore if he honors his commitment to Texas.
24. Atlanta Braves: SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee
Ahuna is one of several high-performing college players transferring into the SEC this spring, and he'll join a stacked Tennessee roster after hitting .396/.479/.634 with 28 extra-base hits and 13 steals in 53 games at Kansas in 2022. With the defensive tools to be a standout shortstop, plus speed and a solid hit tool, he could push his way into the top 15 if he shows a bit more pop this spring.
Nos. 25-28
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25. San Diego Padres: RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell
Scouts saw plenty of Kuehler last spring while tracking shortstop Zach Neto (No. 13 overall pick), and while his 4.07 ERA doesn't jump off the page, his stuff does. He tallied 111 strikeouts in 84 innings while touching the upper 90s with his fastball and featuring a hard-biting slider. His command remains a work in progress, but his high floor as a potential late-inning reliever makes it easier to roll the dice on his starter upside.
26. New York Yankees: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest
The Yankees have made a habit of targeting players with one loud carrying tool, and Wilken fits the bill as one of the best power bats in the country. The 6'4", 225-pound slugger hit .272/.362/.602 with 23 home runs and 77 RBI in 60 games last season, albeit with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate. If he can trim that to under 20 percent this spring, he'll be a safe bet to go in the first round.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian Academy (FL)
In hitting on Mick Abel (No. 15 in 2020) and Andrew Painter (No. 13 in 2021), the Phillies bucked the trend of the often risky high school right-hander profile. With a projectable 6'5" frame, a fastball that can approach triple digits and the potential for quality breaking stuff, he is one of the top prep arms in the class. It also doesn't hurt that he's one of the younger players in the 2023 class and will still be just 17 on draft day.
28. Houston Astros: C Kyle Teel, Virginia
The best college catcher in a thin class, Teel hit .276/.402/.439 with 21 extra-base hits and more walks (41) than strikeouts (36), though he struggled over the summer in the Cape Cod League and as the starting catcher for Team USA. He's athletic enough to handle playing in the outfield or even some second base and third base, and a more consistent hit tool this spring could send his stock soaring.
Compensation/Competitive Balance A Picks
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Compensation Picks
Under the new CBA, if a rookie is on a team's Opening Day roster and he goes on to win Rookie of the Year, the club is awarded a compensation pick immediately following the first round.
29. Seattle Mariners: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas
Competitive Balance Round A Picks
Teams that are one of the bottom 10 in market size or bottom 10 in revenue pool are awarded a bonus pick after the first round or second round, with teams alternating between the two rounds each year.
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers also fall in this section as both teams had their first pick moved back 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold by more than $40 million.
30. Seattle Mariners: 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, Madison High School (VA)
31. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia
32. New York Mets: SS Colin Houck, Parkview High School (GA)
33. Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State
34. Minnesota Twins: SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
35. Miami Marlins: OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Cole Schoenwetter, San Marcos High School (CA)
37. Detroit Tigers: SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton High School (AZ)
38. Cincinnati Reds: 3B Eric Bitonti, Aquinas High School (CA)
39. Oakland Athletics: RHP Nathan Dettmer, Texas A&M
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while scouting information comes via MLB.com and Baseball America.
