Rob Manfred Worried MLB Salary Cap Proposal Could Lead to Strike, Compares to 1994 Work Stoppage

It is only June of the 2026 season, but MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is already worried about a potential work stoppage in the 2027 campaign similar to the 7.5-month one that caused the cancellation of the World Series in 1994.

"Of course I do," he said Wednesday when asked if he worries about that possibility, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. 

"We're open to whatever ideas people have, but we need a realistic framework that addresses the fans' concerns about competitive balance, and you just can't ignore that financial penalties have not gotten it done for us."

The current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, and team owners are expected to impose a lockout if there is not an agreement in place or at least progress on a new one.

While there is no salary cap in the sport, CBAs have gradually increased tax rates and punishments since the 2003 campaign when the luxury tax system was put in place. Yet Blum noted a record nine teams paid the penalty in 2024 and 2025, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, who paid a $169.4 million bill.

Total taxes increased from $78.5 million in 2022 to $402.6 million last year.

"We have tried mightily over several rounds of bargaining to use a competitive balance tax to address competitive concerns and sometimes you got to admit you failed," Manfred said.

The commissioner's latest comments come after team owners officially proposed a salary cap last month that would limit spending at $245.3 million with a payroll floor of $171.2 million.

Yet Blum noted "players have vowed to fight a cap as long as it takes."

Union interim executive director Bruce Meyer told Eric Fisher of Front Office Sports the belief on the players' side is they would lose approximately $500 million under such a system if it was established for the 2026 campaign.

"I thought they would try harder to make it look good, and they didn't even do that," he said. "They've effectively managed to cobble together the worst system for players in any of the major sports, and it's not even close."

Owners are concerned with the spending disparity in the game with teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets and New York Yankees having payrolls above $300 million while teams such as the St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals, Athletics, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins are below $100 million.

Of course, teams could choose to spend more money with a revenue sharing system in place and every single club worth more than $1 billion in valuation, per Forbes.

They may not be able to spend like the Dodgers or Mets, but they could increase payroll in an effort to remain competitive even if there wasn't a cap and floor system.