MLB Mock Draft 2023: Predictions for Every Team's 1st-Round Selection
The 2023 MLB draft is just a few short months away, as it will once again be part of MLB's All-Star Weekend in July.
LSU teammates Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes are widely viewed as locks to be the first two players off the board, with some combination of outfielders Wyatt Langford, Walter Jenkins and Max Clark representing the remainder of this year's top-tier of prospects.
High school pitching and catching in general are thin in this year's class, while prep middle infielders and college hitters would seem to be the deepest areas for teams to scout this spring.
We published our first 2023 mock draft back on Dec. 22, and with the high school and college seasons now in full swing, it's time for an updated look at how this year's draft might play out.
Ahead, you'll find a full analysis of each of the 28 first-round picks, as well as quick-hit selections for the Compensation Round and the Competitive Balance Round A for a total of 39 projected picks.
Note: The New York Mets (No. 32 overall) and Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 36 overall) both had their first selection moved back 10 spots as a result of luxury-tax penalties, so they will not have a first-round pick in the 2023 draft.
Nos. 1-3
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1. Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Dylan Crews, LSU
There has not been a slam-dunk top overall player like Crews since Adley Rutschman was taken first overall in 2019, and it would be massive overthinking by the Pirates to even consider someone else. The LSU star is hitting .463/.609/.800 with 13 home runs, 53 RBI and more than twice as many walks (50) as strikeouts (24) while also showing the defensive skills to potentially stick in center field.
2. Washington Nationals: RHP Paul Skenes, LSU
Skenes is the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, who was arguably the best ever. The 6'6", 235-pound right-hander has dominated hitters all season with an 80-grade fastball that touched 102 mph and a hard-biting slider that is the draft's best breaking pitch. The Air Force transfer is 9-1 with a 1.73 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a 139-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72.2 innings.
3. Detroit Tigers: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida
The Tigers will likely have their pick of Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford and prep outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins, as there is a clear top-five in this draft class. Langford has shown five-tool potential for the Gators this spring, highlighted by a 60-hit/65-power offensive profile. The 6'1", 225-pound junior is hitting .399/.538/.784 with 30 extra-base hits and more walks (42) than strikeouts (26) in 42 games.
Nos. 4-6
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4. Texas Rangers: OF Max Clark, Franklin High School (IN)
The Max Clark vs. Walker Jenkins debate for top high school player in the 2023 class figures to be one of the more compelling storylines of the first round, and the decision will fall to a Rangers squad that has focused more on the college ranks in recent years. Clark does not have the same power potential as Jenkins, but he is a more well-rounded prospect with a polished hit tool, elite speed and a no-doubt center field profile defensively.
5. Minnesota Twins: OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick High School (NC)
With elite raw power and the hit tool to consistently tap into it at the next level, Jenkins has All-Star upside. He fits the prototypical right fielder profile with pop and a strong throwing arm, too. He has a strong 6'3", 205-pound frame with room to add more muscle in the coming years, and his smooth left-handed swing gives him one of the highest offensive ceilings in the draft.
6. Oakland Athletics: RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee
Dollander was a candidate to go No. 1 overall after going 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 108 strikeouts in 79 innings as a sophomore. He has not matched that level of success this spring, due in large part to inconsistent command that has led to his walk rate climbing from 4.2 to 8.5 percent. Despite the step backward, he still has frontline stuff and upside, and his ceiling puts him behind only Paul Skenes among college arms.
Nos. 7-9
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7. Cincinnati Reds: SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
Nimmala is one of the youngest players in the 2023 draft class, and he will still be just 17 years old on draft day. That coupled with his power-hitting offensive profile and solid defensive tools that should allow him to stick at shortstop could give him some late helium leading up to the draft. The Reds took one of the draft's youngest players when they made Cam Collier their first-round pick in 2022, so this would fit that trend.
8. Kansas City Royals: SS Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss
Gonzalez has been viewed as one of the headliners of the 2023 draft class since hitting .355/.443/.561 with 12 home runs as a true freshman two years ago. He has been a steady performer throughout his college career playing in the nation's toughest conference, and he has a high floor with the offensive tools to fit at third base if his lack of first-step quickness necessitates a move off shortstop.
9. Colorado Rockies: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest
A high-floor starter who pitches off a changeup rather than relying on his ability to spin a breaking ball, Lowder could be the perfect fit for the pitching-needy Rockies. The 6'2", 200-pound right-hander pairs his excellent changeup with a mid-90s fastball and an average slider, and he has gone 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 75.2 innings this spring for the Demon Deacons.
Nos. 10-12
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10. Miami Marlins: SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon
A freshman All-American who had an even better sophomore season before playing well in the Cape Cod League and with Team USA over the summer, Wilson has cemented his status as a top-15 pick by hitting .427/.475/.682 this spring. He has an elite hit tool and has only struck out 31 times in 659 plate appearances in college. He also has the baseball bloodlines teams often covet as the son of former MLB All-Star Jack Wilson.
11. Los Angeles Angels: SS Colin Houck, Parkview High School (GA)
A 3-star quarterback recruit who could take off once he turns his full attention to the baseball diamond, Houck has the strength, bat speed and raw power to be an impact offensive player. He has the arm strength and offensive profile to easily handle a move to third base, but he'll be given every chance to show he can stick at shortstop.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt
Bradfield has true 80-grade speed, and he has gone 123-for-134 on stolen base attempts in his three years at Vanderbilt. With an uptick in steals across baseball thanks to larger bases and new pickoff rules, his game-changing wheels have even more appeal than in years past. A no-doubt center fielder, he is hitting .298/.451/.456 with 16 extra-base hits and 30 steals in 47 games this spring. The D-backs know how to develop toolsy outfielders.
Nos. 13-15
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13. Chicago Cubs: C Kyle Teel, Virginia
With a rocket arm, solid receiving skills and plus athleticism for the catcher position, Teel was already in the first-round conversation heading into the spring. He has sent his draft stock soaring with a breakout offensive season, hitting .423/.482/.665 with 20 doubles, nine home runs and 50 RBI in 48 games. He might be the only college catcher to go in the first 100 picks, and that position scarcity only increases his value.
14. Boston Red Sox: RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit High School (OR)
In an extremely thin class for high school pitching, Meyer is widely regarded as the best of the bunch. With an extremely projectable 6'5", 185-pound frame, a fastball that already sits in the upper 90s and the makings of a good slider-changeup combination, he has the potential to develop into a frontline starter and a top-tier prospect for a Red Sox organization that is lacking in pitching talent.
15. Chicago White Sox: RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida
Waldrep is a bit of a risk/reward pick with some things to iron out in his delivery and work to do refining his command, but his stuff is elite. The 6'1" right-hander has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, a split-change that misses bats and a plus slider, and he has used that arsenal to rack up 102 strikeouts in 65.2 innings this spring. There is some reliever risk, but his upside is huge.
Nos. 16-18
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16. San Francisco Giants: IF Matt Shaw, Maryland
Shaw posted a .986 OPS and launched 22 home runs last spring, then hit .360/.432/.574 with 17 extra-base hits and 21 steals in 36 games to take home Cape Cod League MVP honors. The 5'11" middle infielder has continued to rake this spring, hitting .365/.484/.760 with 20 home runs and 55 RBI in 48 games, and while his best long-term fit defensively might be second base, it's his bat that will carry him to the big leagues.
17. Baltimore Orioles: 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell High School (FL)
With a strong 6'2", 210-pound frame and 60-grade power, Miller fits the profile of power-first prep players who often creep up the board in the weeks leading up to the draft. He has shown the ability to get to his raw power in games against high-level competition, and while he has already outgrown shortstop, his arm and fluid actions should make him a quality third baseman. The Orioles have had great success developing infielders in recent years.
18. Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Brayden Taylor, TCU
Taylor is a .307/.440/.575 hitter with 40 home runs and 144 RBI in 164 games as a three-year starter at TCU, and while he doesn't have any one loud tool, he is a solid player across the board with a good hit tool, smooth left-handed swing and more remaining projection than most college players. An uptick in his strikeout rate from 14.8 to 19.6 percent this spring is worth keeping an eye on, but it won't knock him out of first-round consideration.
Nos. 19-21
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19. Tampa Bay Rays: LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (MA)
Just the second prep pitcher off the board in this mock draft and the first left-handed pitcher in general, White has an uber-projectable 6'5", 210-pound frame with premium stuff. Improved command this spring has helped push him up draft boards. The biggest question mark is whether he'll even be willing to sign if he falls out of the top 15. White committed to play college baseball at Vanderbilt last month, but the Rays would be a great landing spot for his development.
20. Toronto Blue Jays: C Blake Mitchell, Sinton High School (TX)
Mitchell is a unique prospect who would likely be a top-100 pick as a pitcher thanks to a fastball that touches 97 mph and a good curveball, but his pro future is at catcher where his arm is a major weapon. He's a good all-around defender behind the plate, and that coupled with his 55-hit/55-power offensive profile give him an extremely high ceiling at a thin position.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: IF Tommy Troy, Stanford
With polished bat-to-ball skills and the ability to make consistent hard contact, Troy has been one of college baseball's most productive hitters this spring, batting .389/.468/.685 with 12 doubles, 10 home runs, 33 RBI and 13 steals in 38 games. He has seen time at shortstop and third base, but ultimately profiles best as an offensive-minded second baseman. The Cardinals value versatility, and he fits the same mold as guys like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan.
Nos. 22-24
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22. Seattle Mariners: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest
Wilken had a 23-homer, 77-RBI season last year to establish himself as a top-tier power threat, but that slugging came with 71 strikeouts in 60 games. This year he's hitting .333/.498/.770 with 20 home runs and 61 RBI, and he has lowered his strikeout rate from 24.2 to 18.8 percent. He will always have a power-over-contact approach, but it's becoming far easier to envision his production translating to pro ball.
23. Cleveland Guardians: IF Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner (PA)
McGonigle has been a consistent performer on the showcase circuit the past two summers, and that has helped put him a notch above a number of other prep middle infielders who are in the mix at the back end of the first round. With a 60-grade hit tool and elite barrel skills, he is one of the best pure hitters in the 2023 class. The only reasons he doesn't slot higher are questions about his long-term defensive home and power potential, but he can flat-out hit.
24. Atlanta Braves: RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian Academy (FL)
A growth spurt and a strong performance on the showcase circuit made Soto one of the breakout prep prospects of last summer. He has a ton of remaining projection in his 6'5", 210-pound frame, already touches 98 mph with his fastball and is one of the youngest players in the class with his 18th birthday not coming until Aug. 31. There is some effort in his delivery, but his stock is on the rise.
Nos. 25-28
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25. San Diego Padres: 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge, Madison High School (VA)
The best two-way prospect in the 2023 class, Eldridge is a legitimate high-level talent as a hitter and a right-handed pitcher. On the mound, he uses his 6'7", 219-pound frame to get a good downward plane on his upper-90s fastball and quality slider. In the batter's box, he has plus raw power from the left side and a short stroke despite his long arms. He's the type of talent you draft now and figure out his long-term role down the line.
26. New York Yankees: 1B/OF Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic
Every draft class has a few small-school standouts who absolutely crush lesser competition. Schanuel fits the bill this year, as he's hitting .456/.611/.913 with 17 home runs and 53 RBI in 48 games playing in Conference USA. He didn't hit well in the Cape Cod League last summer, but his offensive upside and 2023 production will be tough to ignore at the back of the first round.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: SS Colt Emerson, Glenn High School (OH)
Emerson is the best prep prospect to come out of Ohio since Derek Dietrich in 2007, and he has proven himself on the showcase circuit while also hitting .360 as the starting third baseman for the U-18 Team USA squad last summer. An elite athlete who was also an all-state wide receiver on the football field, he has a 60-grade hit tool and the potential to develop into a 20-homer threat. The Phillies have often targeted athleticism early, and he fits that profile.
28. Houston Astros: RHP Travis Sykora, Round Rock High School (TX)
The Astros have a strong track record of developing hard-throwing pitching prospects, and Sykora can light up the radar gun as well as any prep arm in the 2023 class with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and has touched 101 mph. The 6'6", 220-pound right-hander had a great summer last year, showing better command and looking more like a pitcher and less like a thrower while honing his secondary stuff. He's not the most polished pitching prospect in the class, but his stuff is worth the risk.
Compensation/Competitive Balance A Picks
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Compensation Picks
Under the new CBA, if a rookie is on a team's Opening Day roster and he goes on to win Rookie of the Year, the club is awarded a compensation pick immediately following the first round.
29. Seattle Mariners: OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech
Competitive Balance Round A Picks
Teams that are one of the bottom 10 in market size or bottom 10 in revenue pool are awarded a bonus pick after the first round or second round, with teams alternating between the two rounds each year.
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers also fall in this section as both teams had their first pick moved back 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold by more than $40 million.
30. Seattle Mariners: RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State
31. Tampa Bay Rays: 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami
32. New York Mets: OF Dillon Head, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
33. Milwaukee Brewers: SS Walker Martin, Eaton High School (CO)
34. Minnesota Twins: C/1B Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach High School (CA)
35. Miami Marlins: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia
36. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas
37. Detroit Tigers: SS George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep (FL)
38. Cincinnati Reds: RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell
39. Oakland Athletics: LHP Hunter Owen, Vanderbilt
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, while scouting information comes via MLB.com and Baseball America.
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