Progress Report Grades for Former Top MLB Prospects Thus Far in the Big Leagues
It doesn't take much to turn a top prospect into a former top prospect. Just 130 at-bats for hitters and 50 innings for pitchers, as well as 45 days on the big club's active roster.
Since some of the best prospects at the outset of the 2023 Major League Baseball season have since crossed these thresholds, let's check in with how they're doing.
We've handed out progress report grades for how they're adapting to life in the big leagues. Roaring successes get an A. Wall-to-wall struggles get an F. Something in between gets, well, something in between.
Please note that we're only discussing former top prospects who are in the big leagues right now. Grayson Rodriguez, for example, fumbled his chance and is now back in the minors.
We'll start by catching up with the top five prospects heading into the 2022 season before counting down 10 for this year in order of where they appeared in B/R's preseason top 100.
Catching Up with the Top 5 from 2022
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CF Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
Greene has been on the injured list with a stress fracture in his fibula since May 31, but before that he had been becoming precisely the player the Tigers envisioned. He was 24 percent better than the average hitter on offense, with solid defense on the side.
1B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
Torkelson, on the other hand, still isn't living up to the hype that accompanied him when the Tigers took him No. 1 overall in 2020. It's not all bad under the hood, but it's just not ideal that a guy who's supposed to be a next-level hitter can't even get his OPS above .700.
CF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
It's thus far been a humbling season for the American League Rookie of the Year, as Rodríguez's stats have dipped pretty much across the board. But what's under his own hood looks shockingly similar to last year, so bad luck may be playing a role.
C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Rutschman hit his first career home run on June 15, 2022. Since then, he ranks behind only Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman in fWAR and the Orioles have gone 101-71. This, folks, is a clear-cut case of a former No. 1 pick living up to the hype.
SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Witt's first 224 career games have yielded 32 home runs and 52 stolen bases. So, that's nice. Less nice is the fact that his OPS is still hovering in the low .700s, for which it doesn't help that he's one of the worst fastball hitters around. That's a big problem in need of big fixes.
RHP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
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Age: 24
Preseason Rank: No. 30
2023 Stats: 14 GS, 81.0 IP, 71 H (8 HR), 90 K, 28 BB, 3.78 ERA
Hunter Brown has had some hiccups here and there, including a five-walk dud on May 2 and a six-run thud his last time out against the New York Mets on Monday.
For the most part, though, he looks like Diet Framber Valdez.
Not so much in the sense that he's a quality start machine, but rather in how similarly he operates to Houston's ace southpaw. Valdez thrives on racking up ground balls and strikeouts, and Brown also does both so well that the two pitchers' GB% and K% rates make them look like twins.
About the only thing Brown needs to do is get his knuckle-curveball online as up to par as a proper out pitch, but even saying that feels weird given how nasty it looks to the naked eye. His bridge from good to great may be a short one.
Grade: B
2B Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Age: 23
Preseason Rank: No. 28
2023 Stats: 69 G, 267 PA, 7 HR, 3 SB, .207 AVG, .309 OBP, .388 SLG
Let's go back to April 7, when Miguel Vargas was basically impossible to get out. His on-base percentage after six games was .682, which is not a typo.
And now back to the present, wherein his last 63 games have seen him run an OBP of just .276 while striking out 27 more times than he's walked.
This is less-than-pretty stuff, and it largely speaks to how opposing pitchers took the hint that Vargas was giving them early on. They've simply been throwing him more pitches in the strike zone, thus negating his penchant for not expanding said zone.
If Vargas is going to adjust back, becoming a better fastball hitter would be a good place to start. Until he does that, he's not going to be much more than a warm body in the Dodgers' lineup.
Grade: D
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3B Brett Baty, New York Mets
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Age: 23
Preseason Rank: No. 26
2023 Stats: 51 G, 191 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .240 AVG, .314 OBP, .351 SLG
Similar to Vargas out of the gate, Brett Baty made an immediate splash when the Mets called him up on April 17. After 13 games, he had a pair of home runs and an OPS over .900.
Well, he's gone deep just two more times in 38 games ever since then, a span in which his OPS isn't even sniffing .600.
Whereas fastballs have been Vargas' big bugaboo, Baty's core issues more so concern the bendy stuff. Sweepers, knuckle-curves and especially sliders have generally bamboozled him, particularly when put below his knees.
Bits of good news include how the lefty-swinging Baty has hung in there against same-side hurlers and also that Outs Above Average is positive on his defense. As long as those things hold, the Mets can ride out his adjustment period.
Grade: C
1B Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
5 of 11
Age: 23
Preseason Rank: No. 25
2023 Stats: 67 G, 252 PA, 8 HR, 0 SB, .216 AVG, .329 OBP, .390 SLG
"I think I'm a difference-maker," says Triston Casas about himself, and one look at his numbers might have one thinking he's taking crazy pills.
But like we did with Vargas and Baty, let's split his season into two parts:
- First 15 G: .511 OPS, 1 HR
- Last 51 G: .772 OPS, 6 HR
The latter sample doesn't pass muster as a breakout, but it does represent a case of Casas doing a better job of leaning into his strengths. Drawing walks is a big one, while another is natural power that the 6'5", 244-pounder doesn't need to force.
Swings and misses and consistency on defense are the next mountains he has to climb, though it's not altogether uncommon for him to show flashes with the latter.
Grade: B
SS Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies
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Age: 21
Preseason Rank: No. 16
2023 Stats: 70 G, 264 PA, 6 HR, 3 SB, .256 AVG, .292 OBP, .412 OBP
Certain prophecies foretold that Ezequiel Tovar would be a slick defender. It's a good sign for the Rockies, then, that he's among the positional leaders in Outs Above Average.
As to the other side of the ball, it's never ideal when a hitter who plays half his games at Coors Field has an average in the mid-.200s and an OBP below .300. For shame, Tovar.
His trendline, though, is in good shape. He's a .284 hitter with a .310 OBP in 40 games since May 6, with a related story being that he's been a line drive machine.
Call it a reminder that Tovar's hit tool was his other big selling point as a prospect, as well as a good excuse to get the "Ezequiel Tovar is underrated" train chugging.
Grade: B
SS Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees
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Age: 22
Preseason Rank: No. 9
2023 Stats: 75 G, 278 PA, 10 HR, 15 SB, .196 AVG, .273 OBP, .364 SLG
The handwringing in New York over Anthony Volpe is a bit much. He hasn't been that bad, and it's certainly not his fault that the Yankees' roster is overly Aaron Judge-centric.
This said, his issues quickly come into focus once you shift attention away from his home runs and stolen bases.
Volpe is like Baty in that he handles fastballs but is easily exploited by anything with any kind of movement. And with his exposure to fastballs steadily decreasing month to month, the scouting book on him might as well be a New York Times bestseller.
Volpe's offensive backsliding would be easier to stomach if he was at least steady on defense, but he leads all shortstops in fielding errors and his Outs Above Average is under water. His occasional highlights are thus the only thing sustaining him.
Grade: C
LF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Age: 22
Preseason Rank: No. 8
2023 Stats: 73 G, 299 PA, 16 HR, 22 SB, .298 AVG, .379 OBP, .576 SLG
The gap between Corbin Carroll and the next best rookie hitter is 1.7 wins above replacement wide, or basically the equivalent to one Ryan Noda.
While WAR can sometimes be tricky to decode, that's simply not the case here.
It really is as simple as Carroll being a darn-near .300 hitter with the highest slugging percentage in the National League and one of two guys with at least 15 doubles, home runs and stolen bases. The other is Ronald Acuña Jr.
Though he's mainly played left field, Carroll is also in the black for Outs Above Average at all three outfield spots. There's no other way to put it: He's a sensation who will be hard to beat for the NL Rookie of the Year.
Grade: A
RF Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
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Age: 21
Preseason Rank: No. 4
2023 Stats: 37 G, 145 PA, 6 HR, 3 SB, .303 AVG, .366 OBP, .485 SLG
Remember when Jordan Walker opened his career with a 12-game hitting streak? Then remember when he subsequently struggled enough to get sent down?
That was rookie whiplash, alright, but Walker returned to the Cardinals on June 2 and has been on a tear ever since. We're talking a 1.011 OPS and four home runs in 17 games.
Everything about Walker's output has been different, from his walks (up) to his strikeouts (down) to his hard-hit rate (way up). The 6'6", 245-pounder has been vaguely Casas-like, not over-swinging and letting his natural strength do the work.
Walker's defense remains a work in progress, to say the least. But as long as his bat keeps the rockets coming, the Cardinals can live with that.
Grade: B
3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
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Age: 21
Preseason Rank: No. 2
2023 Stats: 63 G, 239 PA, 11 HR, 4 SB, .242 AVG, .343 OBP, .464 SLG
Gunnar Henderson eclipsed even Adley Rutschman when the Orioles called him up at the end of last season, so it was a letdown when his OPS was staying closely tethered to the .700 threshold through the first few weeks of this season.
Now he's on something of a Walker-esque hot streak, with his last 16 games yielded a 1.064 OPS and six home runs.
This is all coming on the heels of Henderson making some mystery-clad adjustments. Simple confidence also seems to be at work. He's only walked twice in June, but that's OK as long as he keeps destroying the strikes he swings at.
Though Henderson's defensive record shows a tendency for throwing errors, some of those perhaps should have been on his first basemen. He's thus in a "no notes" portion of his ascent.
Grade: B
C Francisco Álvarez, New York Mets
11 of 11
Age: 21
Preseason Rank: No. 1
2023 Stats: 51 G, 175 PA, 12 HR, 0 SB, .233 AVG, .286 OBP, .497 SLG
Francisco Álvarez ranks behind only Salvador Pérez in home runs among catchers, which is none too shabby given that he's taken 104 fewer plate appearances than the veteran.
To this extent, at least, the Mets can't feel cheated. Power was supposed to be Álvarez's primary skill, and his primary skill it has indeed been.
Meanwhile, it's misleading that Mets pitchers have a 4.91 ERA when pitching to him. His framing and blocking rate as well above average, and he's even quicker than the average catcher at getting the ball to second base on steal attempts.
About the only thing Álvarez lacks is an approach more conducive to consistent offensive results. A nice thing to have, for sure, but his lack of it isn't holding him back too much.
Grade: B
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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