NBA Finals 2023: Early Storylines to Track for Remainder of Heat vs. Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets drew first blood in the 2023 NBA Finals.
Playing for the first time in nine days, the Nuggets showed little, if any, rust en route to a more-lopsided-than-it-sounds 11-point triumph over the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat, who hadn't dropped Game 1 yet this postseason, trailed by 21 points entering the final frame.
Two-time MVP Nikola Jokić led all scorers with 27 points and had yet another triple-double, rounding out his stat sheet with 14 assists and 10 rebounds. Jamal Murray added 26 points and 10 assists, and three other Nuggets finished in double figures.
Bam Adebayo scored 26 points—his most this postseason—and grabbed 13 rebounds, but he couldn't find enough scoring support. Jimmy Butler managed just 13 points—his fewest this postseason—and didn't attempt a free throw for the first time since October.
Was this contest a sign of things to come? Are the Nuggets as in control of this series as oddsmakers expected them to be? Or do these dragon-slaying Heat have another surprise in them? As this series moves forward, here are three key storylines to track.
Any Answer for Nikola Jokić?
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The Heat have a number of different defensive coverages to throw at Jokić, and coach Erik Spoelstra will surely explore them all.
Will any of them work, though? When Miami showed him extra attention in Game 1, he found open shooters and slashers. When the Heat let him go one-on-one, he cooked like a 5-star chef. He shot a blistering 8-of-12 from the field and made eight more free throws (10) than Miami attempted (two).
"I don't force it. I never force it, I think," Jokić told reporters afterward. "... I just take whatever the game gives me."
It's only one game, obviously, and adjustments will come from Spoelstra, who's arguably the best coach in this league. Still, defeating Denver means containing Jokić—stopping him isn't happening—and it's already hard to see how Miami can do that.
When Is Tyler Herro Coming Back?
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Maybe the most improbable part of Miami's unbelievable run to the Finals is that it basically all happened without Tyler Herro. The team's third-leading scorer and top off-the-dribble shooter broke his hand in the Heat's playoff opener and hasn't been seen since.
Now, you could argue his absence may have actually benefited Miami at times, since it allowed this team to put better defenders on the floor. And when the Heat were finding shooting from other players, they seemingly didn't need Herro's offense.
Thursday night, though, was a reminder this club could have a lot less offense than it has shown in the playoffs. In the regular season, the Heat were just 25th in offensive efficiency, per NBA.com, and 27th in three-point percentage. They certainly looked the part of an offensively challenged team in Game 1, shooting just 40.6 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from distance.
They need a pull-up threat like Herro to have any hope of keeping up with the Nuggets, and they could have him soon. There's a "possibility" he plays in Game 2, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, and a "confidence" he'll be back by Game 3 if he doesn't. Miami needs more shooting and shot-creation, and a healthy Herro would help immensely on both fronts.
Can Miami Win a Road Game?
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The Nuggets have made Ball Arena an impenetrable fortress of late.
They've always enjoyed a strong home-court advantage, thanks in no small part to the challenges presented by playing at elevation. Lately, though, a date in Denver has become a guaranteed win for the home group.
With the Game 1 victory, Denver moved to a perfect 9-0 at home this postseason, but its dominance stretches back even further. The Nuggets last lost a home game in March, and if you take out that month—when they essentially had the West's No. 1 seed locked up and seemed to lack motivation—they've gone an absurd 39-4 in the Mile High City.
The Heat have to win at least one road game to take this series. And any games they drop on their own home floor would only increase the number of away tilts they have to take.
