Early Thoughts on Top 25 MLB Free Agents of the 2023-24 Offseason
A lot has happened since we put together our first ranking of the top 25 upcoming MLB free agents in late December.
Five players from that list—Rafael Devers (3), Manny Machado (4), Yu Darvish (7), Ian Happ (9) and Miles Mikolas (19)—signed extensions with their current clubs to remove them from the 2023-24 free agent class.
Meanwhile, Rhys Hoskins (15) suffered a season-ending ACL tear, Luis Severino (16) has yet to make his 2023 debut because of a lat strain, and Jack Flaherty (10) has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball with a 6.18 ERA in 39.1 innings.
All of that has left us with a significantly different top-25 list here in May.
What has not changed is Shohei Ohtani in the No. 1 spot. His long-term future will be one of the biggest storylines in sports this offseason.
Players are ranked based on their expected earning power and projected production going forward, with their career track records helping to paint a picture of what to expect.
Honorable Mentions and Opt-Outs
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C: Mitch Garver, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Hedges, Omar Narváez (player option)
1B: Jesús Aguilar, Brandon Belt, Ji-Man Choi, C.J. Cron, Garrett Cooper, Trey Mancini, Carlos Santana, Joey Votto (club option)
2B: Elvis Andrus, Adam Frazier, Tony Kemp, Jonathan Schoop, Kolten Wong, Whit Merrifield (mutual option)
3B: Brian Anderson, Jeimer Candelario, Evan Longoria, Gio Urshela, Joey Wendle, Josh Donaldson (mutual option), Eduardo Escobar (club option)
SS: Nick Ahmed, Brandon Crawford, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adalberto Mondesi, Paul DeJong (club option)
OF: Charlie Blackmon, Michael Brantley, Joey Gallo, Robbie Grossman, Randal Grichuk, Enrique Hernández, David Peralta, Tommy Pham, AJ Pollock, Jurickson Profar, Michael A. Taylor, Jesse Winker, Mark Canha (club option), Max Kepler (club option), Wil Myers (mutual option)
DH: Matt Carpenter, Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez, Andrew McCutchen
SP: Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Gibson, Zack Greinke, Rich Hill, Brad Keller, Kenta Maeda, Frankie Montas, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Luis Severino, Noah Syndergaard, Alex Wood, Mike Clevinger (mutual option), Johnny Cueto (club option), Corey Kluber (club option), Lance Lynn (club option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Charlie Morton (club option)
RP: Anthony Bass, John Brebbia, Aroldis Chapman, Carl Edwards Jr., Buck Farmer, Dylan Floro, Michael Fulmer, Amir Garrett, Brad Hand, Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, Craig Kimbrel, Phil Maton, Emilio Pagán, Wandy Peralta, Drew Pomeranz, Will Smith, Ryne Stanek, Robert Stephenson, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin (club option), José Leclerc (club option), Héctor Neris (club option), Kirby Yates (club option)
Opt-Out/Player Option Candidates
1B Josh Bell, 1B, Trey Mancini, SS Javier Báez, OF Michael Conforto, OF Jorge Soler, SP Andrew Heaney, SP Sean Manaea, SP Max Scherzer, SP Ross Stripling
Nos. 25-21
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25. LHP Matt Moore (Age: 33)
Once the No. 2 prospect in baseball—slotted between Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in 2012—Moore had a promising start to his MLB career before injuries derailed him. He enjoyed a resurgence last year in the bullpen with a 1.95 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 63 appearances, and he has a 1.00 ERA with eight holds in 16 games this year while playing on a one-year, $7.6 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
24. RHP David Robertson (Age: 38)
Robertson likely won't receive anything beyond a one-year deal considering his age, but he has been terrific filling in for the injured Edwin Díaz in the New York Mets' closer role. He is 6-for-6 on save opportunities with a 0.63 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 13 games. His 744 appearances rank third among active pitchers, behind only Kenley Jansen (777) and Bryan Shaw (753).
23. RHP Seth Lugo (Age: 33)
Originally developed as a starter, Lugo spent most of the past five seasons pitching in a high-leverage role out of the Mets bullpen. The San Diego Padres signed him to a two-year, $15 million deal with the intention of returning him to a starting role, and he has a 3.21 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 33.2 innings through his first six starts. He doesn't have as much mileage on his arm as other starters his age, and his $7.5 million player option for 2024 is looking like a no-brainer to reject in search of a multiyear deal.
22. OF Joc Pederson (Age: 31)
After posting a 145 OPS+ with 23 home runs and 70 RBI last season to earn his second career All-Star selection, Pederson accepted a one-year, $19.7 million qualifying offer from the San Francisco Giants to return. His production is down a bit so far this year, but he has a 116 OPS+ across 10 MLB seasons and is a proven run producer.
21. RHP Vince Velasquez (Age: 30)
The Pirates hit on a one-year deal with José Quintana last season, and it looks like they've done the same with Velasquez, who inked a one-year, $3.2 million contract in December. Once a promising up-and-comer in the Philadelphia Phillies rotation, he has struggled mightily over the past few seasons. But he has a 3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 35.1 innings through his first seven starts in Pittsburgh and won't turn 31 until next month.
Nos. 20-16
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20. OF Teoscar Hernández (Age: 30)
The value Hernández provides comes almost exclusively from his bat, so the fact that he's hitting .221 with a career-worst 88 OPS+ and an AL-leading 51 strikeouts means his stock is undoubtedly down right now. He entered the year with a 133 OPS+ over the past three seasons, and he has always been a streaky hitter, but he'll hurt his market significantly if he doesn't rebound soon.
19. LHP Blake Snell (Age: 30)
With a 3.47 ERA and 1,028 strikeouts in 847.2 career innings, Snell has always had terrific stuff, but he has sometimes struggled to pitch deep into games, and his command has taken a step backward during his time in San Diego. The left-hander has a 4.89 ERA and a career-high 5.4 BB/9 in 35 innings this year, and he could wind up pitching himself into a one-year deal if he doesn't improve.
18. OF Hunter Renfroe (Age: 31)
Playing for his fifth team in five years, Renfroe continues to be an above-average corner outfielder with good power and a solid defensive game. He has a pair of 30-homer seasons on his resume, and he's currently sporting a 113 OPS+ with nine home runs and 24 RBI in 35 games with the Los Angeles Angels.
17. OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Age: 29)
Originally believed to be part of the 2024-25 free-agent class, Gurriel will in fact hit the open market next winter, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet cleared up some long-standing public confusion prior to the 2022 campaign. His offseason trade to the Arizona Diamondbacks has been a successful change of scenery, as he's hitting .305/.362/.508 for a 138 OPS+ in 130 plate appearances.
16. RHP Tyler Mahle (Age: 28)
Age and the ability to miss bats are two big things working in Mahle's favor when it comes to his free-agency stock, but an elbow impingement and strained flexor tendon will leave him watching from the sidelines for the next several weeks. He has a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 424 strikeouts in 374 innings since his breakout 2020 season and could push toward the top 10 if he returns strong from his injury.
Nos. 15-11
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15. SS Amed Rosario (Age: 27)
Rosario is the only viable starting shortstop option in this free-agent class unless Javier Báez decides to opt out. That makes him an extremely valuable player, even if he has struggled to match last year's 4.2-WAR pace so far. Still only 27 years old until November, Rosario is hitting .242/.284/.339 with seven extra-base hits in 134 plate appearances.
14. LHP Martín Pérez (Age: 32)
With a 4.42 ERA over 1,336.1 career innings, Pérez has been a reliable No. 4 starter type throughout his career. He took things to another level last year when he finished 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 169 strikeouts in 196.1 innings to earn his first All-Star selection and a $19.7 million qualifying offer that he accepted. He has a 3.86 ERA in 37.1 innings this year and has been a bit more hittable, but he has a higher-value floor than some of the other second-tier starters in this class.
13. LHP Jordan Montgomery (Age: 30)
Montgomery has been the best starter on a disappointing St. Louis staff, picking up where he left off with his strong final two months last season to post a 3.29 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 38-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41.0 innings. The three-year, $39 million deal that Tyler Anderson signed this past offseason looks like a good starting point in negotiations.
12. CF Harrison Bader (Age: 28)
The New York Yankees acquired Bader when they traded Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals last summer, so it's interesting to see them side-by-side in these rankings. He has played only 21 regular-season games in pinstripes due to injury, but he was terrific last postseason and has gone 11-for-25 with two home runs in seven games since returning to action this year. A lack of viable center field options will also help his market.
11. LHP Clayton Kershaw (Age: 35)
At this point, Kershaw is likely going to continue signing one-year deals with the Los Angeles Dodgers until he decides to retire, so he might be a free agent in title only. The future Hall of Famer inked a one-year, $20 million deal to return in 2023, and he has been fantastic so far, going 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in 42.2 innings. He would rank higher here if he would legitimately consider signing elsewhere.
10. LHP Eduardo Rodríguez
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Age: 30
Left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez had a trying 2022 season after he signed a five-year, $77 million deal with the Detroit Tigers in free agency. He missed time with a ribcage injury before stepping away from the team for a personal matter. He ultimately missed three months and finished with a 4.05 ERA in 91 innings over 17 starts.
This season, Rodríguez is looking much more like the ace of the staff he was expected to be with a 1.81 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 44.2 innings. After a shaky start, he has allowed only two earned runs in 34.2 innings over his last five outings.
Rodríguez can opt out of the final three years and $49 million of his contract this coming offseason. If he continues to pitch like a Cy Young candidate, that will be a no-brainer.
9. RHP Sonny Gray
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Age: 33
At his best, Sonny Gray has been a bona fide Cy Young candidate, finishing in the top 10 in balloting in 2015 and 2020. At his worst, he has been injury-prone and pitched more like a No. 4 or No. 5 starter than a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Gray has been elite so far in his second season with the Minnesota Twins, though. In seven starts, he's gone 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in 40 innings. An AL-leading 2.10 FIP provides plenty of optimism that he can continue pitching at a high level.
Gray's age hurts his chances of receiving anything beyond a three-year deal, but he should have no problem topping the average annual value of his current three-year, $30.5 million contract.
8. RHP Marcus Stroman
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Age: 32
Marcus Stroman is rapidly pitching his way toward declining his $21 million player option for 2024 in pursuit of a long-term deal in free agency, as he has been one of the best pitchers in the National League so far this year.
The sinkerballer has generated a 57.3 percent ground-ball rate, which ranks fifth among all qualified starters. That has been the key to success throughout his career.
All told, Stroman has a 2.28 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. As long as he stays healthy the rest of the way, he should be able to find an AAV close to the $21 million he would be leaving on the table with at least a few more guaranteed years tacked on.
7. LHP Josh Hader
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Age: 29
Outside of a rough patch during the second half last season prior to a dominant run in the playoffs, Josh Hader has been one of the most overpowering relief pitchers the game has ever seen.
He has converted 143 of 164 save chances in his career, pitching to a 2.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 15.1 K/9 in 304 career appearances. His mid-90s sinker and wipeout slider have limited opposing hitters to a .152 average in 1,363 plate appearances.
The left-hander has been excellent so far this season, nailing down 11 of 12 save opportunities with a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 16 games.
As long as he doesn't encounter another rocky patch, Hader has a real shot at exceeding the record-setting five-year, $102 million deal that Edwin Díaz inked this past offseason.
6. RHP Lucas Giolito
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Age: 28
A budding ace on the rise following a breakout 2019 season and a pair of impressive follow-up campaigns, Lucas Giolito took a significant step backward last year, making him one of the bigger question marks in this free-agent class.
Giolito finished with a 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 161.2 innings last year to join a long list of Chicago White Sox players who had disappointing seasons. He entered the 2023 campaign needing a bounce-back performance to secure a major payday.
Through eight starts, he has a 3.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 47.2 innings. He has ripped off five quality starts in his last six outings with a 2.33 ERA in 38.2 innings during that impressive stretch.
His 2023 numbers are not quite on par with what Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray have done so far, but he's more than three years younger than Stroman and almost five years younger than Gray, which makes him a far more attractive target for a long-term deal.
5. CF Cody Bellinger
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Age: 27
Following back-to-back disappointing seasons where he struggled to a 65 OPS+ and minus-0.5 WAR in 239 games, the Los Angeles Dodgers non-tendered Cody Bellinger this past offseason rather than paying him a projected $18.1 million salary in his final year of arbitration.
The Chicago Cubs rolled the dice on Bellinger with a one-year, $12.5 million deal that includes a matching mutual option with a $5 million buyout in 2024. That has been one of the best moves of the offseason.
The 2019 NL MVP is hitting .291/.366/.543 for a 145 OPS+ with nine doubles, seven home runs, 19 RBI and 2.0 WAR in 33 games. His batted-ball metrics still leave something to be desired, so there could be some regression to come.
Still, with his defensive skills in center field and age relative to the rest of the free-agent class, even league-average offensive production would make Bellinger a hot commodity on the open market.
4. RHP Aaron Nola
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Age: 29
I referenced this list in our preseason rankings, but it's worth highlighting once again to demonstrate just how good Aaron Nola has been in recent years.
Here are the WAR leaders among all pitchers from 2017 through 2022:
1. Max Scherzer: 33.8
2. Jacob deGrom: 29.4
3. Aaron Nola: 28.3
4. Justin Verlander: 26.5
5. Gerrit Cole: 24.8
That foundation of success makes it much easier to overlook his slow start this year, as he has a 4.44 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 48.2 innings over his first eight starts.
Despite those lackluster numbers, Nola has still tallied five quality starts. He should be able to make a strong case for exceeding the six-year, $162 million deal that Carlos Rodón signed with the New York Yankees this past offseason.
3. 3B Matt Chapman
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Age: 30
Outside of the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres, no one was happier to see Rafael Devers and Manny Machado sign long-term extensions than Matt Chapman. He is now unquestionably the top third baseman on the market.
An MVP-caliber start to the season has only further boosted his free-agency profile.
A career .240 hitter with a 27 percent strikeout rate heading into the 2023 season, he currently leads the AL in batting average (.349) and on-base percentage (.436) while tallying 17 doubles, five home runs, 22 RBI and 2.3 WAR in 35 games.
His strikeout rate is down (27.4 to 24.8 percent), his walk rate is up (11.0 to 12.1 percent), and he ranks among the MLB leaders in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
A career year offensively is in the works, and a nine-figure payday should be waiting on the other side.
2. LHP Julio Urías
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Age: 26
Julio Urías made his MLB debut as a 19-year-old back in 2016. That early arrival in the majors means he'll reach free agency several years earlier than most players, which means teams will be paying for more of his prime years if they sign him to a long-term deal this winter.
All of that is an elaborate way to say the left-hander is going to get PAID.
After top-10 finishes in NL Cy Young voting in 2021 (20-3, 2.96 ERA, 195 K, 185.2 IP) and 2022 (17-7, 2.16 ERA, 166 K, 175.0 IP), he has firmly established himself as one of the game's best pitchers. Even with a slow start to the 2023 campaign, he still has a 3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 48-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 45.1 innings.
A $200 million contract is well within reach considering his age and frontline production. The question is whether the Los Angeles Dodgers will let Urías test the market, or if they'll make an all-out blitz to re-sign him before he has a chance to walk.
1. RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani
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Age: 28
Shohei Ohtani the hitter and Shohei Ohtani the pitcher might each separately be worth $200 million-plus in free agency. The fact that his production comes all rolled into one unicorn of a player should result in record-setting contract this offseason.
It's been more of the same from the two-way phenom in the early going this year. He has a 138 OPS+ with 15 extra-base hits and 22 RBI as a hitter, and a 2.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and an AL-leading 66 strikeouts in 46 innings through eight starts as a pitcher.
Here's a fun stat: Ohtani has allowed 22 hits in 182 plate appearances by the opposition, and tallied 40 hits in 156 plate appearances in the batter's box.
The bidding war for him is going to be intense, and the final payday is going to be record-breaking. He is worth every penny, though.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
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