Kentucky Derby 2023 Odds: Predictions Based on Betting Lines for Top Contenders

Paul KasabianMay 6, 2023

The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place Saturday at Louisville's Churchill Downs.

This race has had no shortage of drama over the past decade or so. Fans have seen the beginning of two Triple Crown runs in 2015 (American Pharoah) and 2018 (Justify). Maximum Security won it all in 2019 before being disqualified for interference, leading to Country House taking it home at 65-1.

Another disqualification took place two years later when Bob Baffert-trained horse Medina Spirit tested positive for betamethasone, leading to Mandaloun's win.

TOP NEWS

Finally, 80-1 Rich Strike shocked the world last year by winning with the second-longest odds in Derby history.

This year doesn't feature any super long shots like Rich Strike. However, odds-on favorite Forte was scratched from the race Saturday morning. As a result, Tapit Trice (9-2), Angel of Empire (9-2), Derma Sotogake (7-1) and Two Phil's (8-1) are now the horses with the shortest odds.

Here's a look at the post positions and odds alongside predictions.

Post Positions and Odds

Hit Show: 26-1
Verifying: 16-1
Two Phil's: 8-1
Confidence Game: 17-1
Tapit Trice: 9-2
Kingsbarns: 10-1
Reincarnate: 13-1
Mage: 17-1
Skinner: Scratched
Practical Move: Scratched
Disarm: 24-1
Jace's Road: 32-1
Sun Thunder: 30-1
Angel of Empire: 9-2
Forte: Scratched
Raise Cain: 30-1
Derma Sotogake: 7-1
Rocket Can: 27-1
Lord Miles: Scratched
Continuar: Scratched
Cyclone Mischief: 30-1
Mandarin Hero: 21-1
King Russell: 32-1

Odds via Kentucky Derby website and accurate as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Win: Tapit Trice

Tapit Trice rolls into the Kentucky Derby with wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. He has won four of five lifetime races. Luis Saez will serve as the jockey. He notably won the 2021 Belmont Stakes with Essential Quality.

Tapit Trice obviously benefits from Pletcher's training, and he's looked good in the lead-in to the Derby:

Tapit Trice's issue is that he's not particularly known as a good starter:

If he wins, chances are it will be the result of another strong finish.

Place: Confidence Game

Confidence Game enters the Kentucky Derby riding the high of a surprising win at the Rebel Stakes in February. That race included a win over two fellow Derby competitors in Verifying and Reincarnate.

He hasn't raced since then, but trainer Keith Desormeaux doesn't appear to have any worries about that or the horse in general.

Jockey James Graham exuded confidence about the colt as well.

By numerous accounts, Confidence Game is looking good heading into Saturday:

Overall, there's reason to feel good about Confidence Game even at 20-1 odds.

Show: Angel of Empire

Angel of Empire has moved atop the odds ledger after the Forte scratch. It's easy to feel confidence in his chances, especially after a good week of prep:

His trainer (Brad H. Cox) and jockey (Flavien Prat) have both won Kentucky Derbies. Cox trained Mandaloun to victory in 2021. Prat rode Country House to first in 2019.

Angel of Empire is also coming into this race off an impressive Arkansas Derby victory. He's won four of his six lifetime starts, including a win at the Risen Star Stakes in February.

For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.