Kentucky Derby Picks 2023: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 149th Race

Erin WalshMay 6, 2023

The 149th running of the Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching, and all eyes will be on the 18 horses competing for the first jewel in the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Following Monday's post positions draw, Todd Pletcher's Forte was the favorite with 3-1 odds. However, Forte was a late scratch from the race following a Saturday morning workout, shifting the odds.

Tapit Trice, also trained by Pletcher, and the Brad Cox-trained Angel of Empire have also had low odds all week, and either could win the crown with Forte out of the race.

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There's always the chance that a long shot will win the Derby, such as Hit Show or Reincarnate, but the quality of the top horses in this year's field makes that seem unlikely.

With the race right around the corner, here's a look at the updated odds and a prediction for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Odds

Hit Show: 26-1
Verifying: 16-1
Two Phil's: 8-1
Confidence Game: 17-1
Tapit Trice: 9-2
Kingsbarns: 10-1
Reincarnate: 13-1
Mage: 17-1
Skinner: SCR
Practical Move: SCR
Disarm: 24-1
Jace's Road: 32-1
Sun Thunder: 30-1
Angel of Empire: 9-2
Forte: SCR
Raise Cain: 30-1
Derma Sotogake: 7-1
Rocket Can: 27-1
Lord Miles: SCR
Continuar: SCR
Cyclone Mischief: 31-1
Mandarin Hero: 21-1
King Russell: 32-1

Live odds for the Kentucky Derby available at KentuckyDerby.com

Predictions

Forte had long been considered the favorite to claim the Kentucky Derby crown, and with Irad Ortiz Jr. as the colt's jockey, that was certainly a possibility before his late scratch.

The 30-year-old Ortiz was looking for his first Derby victory after being a two-time winner of the Belmont Stakes and winning the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey in four of the last five years.

However, Ortiz will now have to wait another year to win the first jewel of the coveted Triple Crown with Forte sidelined.

The news of Forte being scratched was disappointing as he has had a strong 2023 with two first-place finishes in two races, the most recent coming in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on April 1. Additionally, he has six first-place finishes in seven races overall.

Angel of Empire is another one of the top horses in this year's Run for the Roses, and he has also put together an impressive 2023 with two first-place finishes and a second-place finish in three races.

The colt has run in six career races, posting four first-place finishes, one second-place finish and one sixth-place finish, which came at Kentucky Downs in September.

Additionally, Angel of Empire blew away the field in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 1, which is when he became one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby field.

Flavien Prat will be aboard Angel of Empire, and he won the 2019 Kentucky Derby and the 2021 Preakness Stakes, bringing some extensive experience to the table in this year's running.

Tapit Trice is another horse that could be in line to win on Saturday. He has posted four consecutive first-place finishes, the most recent coming with jockey Luis Saez in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky.

In five career races, the only race Tapit Trice did not win was the Maiden Special Weight at Aqueduct Race Track in Queens, New York, in October.

Like Prat, Saez is one of the most experienced jockeys in this year's running, having won the 2020 Breeders Cup, 2021 Belmont Stakes, 2021 Saudi Cup and 2022 Kentucky Oaks.

Derma Sotogake, trained by Hidetaka Otonashi and ridden by Christophe Lemaire, is aiming to become the first Japan-based runner to win the Derby, as is Mandarin Hero. Continuar would have had a chance to do the same before being scratched because of fitness issues.

Derma Sotogake has made two starts in 2023, posting one first-place finish and one third-place finish. In eight career starts, the colt has posted four first-place finishes and two third-place finishes.

Derma Sotogake is coming off an impressive victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse on March 25. He also finished third in the Saudi Derby at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in February.

While Derma Sotogake has found success, though, Lemaire doesn't have much experience riding in the United States and will be competing in the Run for the Roses for just the second time in his career.

That said, the France-born jockey has extensive experience throughout Europe and Japan and has the most wins at Japan Racing Association racetracks for five straight years.

If Lemaire can bring his overseas success to the U.S., Derma Sotogake should be in good standing for the Kentucky Derby.

Prediction