NFL Draft 2023: Latest 1st-Round Mocks, Odds, Best Fits for Top Prospects
The 2023 NFL draft is nearly upon us, and in less than a week, the wait will be over. On Thursday evening, we'll finally know which prospect the Carolina Panthers traded up to No. 1 overall to get.
For now, we don't know who the top pick in the draft will be or what will happen after the first selection. This is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory, with no clear-cut top prospects at multiple positions.
The Panthers are likely to choose between Ohio State's C.J. Stroud and Alabama's Bryce Young, and depending on their pick, the quarterback-needy Houston Texans might not even take a signal-caller at No. 2.
The Arizona Cardinals don't need a quarterback and could trade the No. 3 pick, and there's little consensus on who the top defensive prospects are. The same is true at tight end, though multiple prospects are expected to go in Round 1. Wide receiver? Good luck guessing how that position group unfolds.
"The receivers are all bunched up," ProFootballTalk's Peter King wrote. "One team thinks it's nuts for Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be ranked ahead of USC's Jordan Addison. Another team has BC's Zay Flowers the top-ranked wideout on the board. In short, we're going to see some surprises at receiver on draft night."
The only thing we know with certainty is that we don't know how Round 1 will unfold. We can only make educated guesses based on the latest buzz, the Vegas trends and the logical pairings. We'll dive into all of these factors below.
Mock Draft Roundup
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How will the early portion of Round 1 unfold? Experts around the web have made their predictions, and a few trends are beginning to emerge.
Mock drafts by the Bleacher Report Scouting Department, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay and NFL Media's Peter Schrager all had the Panthers taking Young at No. 1. He's a smaller prospect at 5'10" and 204 pounds, but Young is a natural playmaker and would instantly upgrade Carolina's offense.
Of course, not everyone is convinced that Young will be the pick.
"Many in the league who were interviewed believe it will be Stroud," ESPN's David Newton wrote.
The B/R Scouting Department had Stroud going No. 2 to Houston, as did McShay. Schrager, however, had the Indianapolis Colts trading up to No. 2 to get Stroud and the Texans taking Texas Tech defensive lineman Tyree Wilson at No. 4.
The B/R Scouting Department has the Colts trading up to No. 3 to grab Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson. Kiper paired the Cardinals with Alabama edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr., as did Schrager.
In the B/R mock, Anderson went No. 4 to Arizona, while Kiper has Richardson going to Indianapolis in that slot. Schrager had Richardson landing with the Seattle Seahawks at No. 5, while the B/R Scouting Department paired Seattle with Wilson. Kiper had Seattle landing Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter,
All three mocks had the Tennessee Titans taking a quarterback at No. 11. The B/R Scouting Department and Kiper paired Tennessee with Kentucky's Will Levis, while Schrager gave Tennessee's Hendon Hooker to the Titans.
Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first receiver off the board in all three mocks. Anderson was the first defender in all three, though there's no guarantee that he's the first off the board next Thursday.
"I will not be surprised if, in the Edge category, Tyree Wilson is picked ahead of Will Anderson," King wrote.
NFL Draft Odds
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Based on the odds and the betting options at DraftKings Sportsbook, it appears that Young and Stroud are widely expected to be the first two quarterbacks off the board but perhaps not the first two players.
No. 3 Quarterback Drafted
Anthony Richardson +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Will Levis +175
C.J. Stroud +200
Hendon Hooker +900
Bryce Young +4000
Jaren Hall +10000
No. 3 Draft Pick
C.J. Stroud +200
Will Anderson Jr. +300
Anthony Richardson +350
Tyree Wilson +400
Will Levis +700
Jalen Carter +1200
Devon Witherspoon +3000
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in First Round
Over 4.5: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Under 4.5 -115
Total Tight Ends Drafted in First Round
Over Two -450
Under Two +340
Total Defensive Players Drafted in First Round
Over 14.5 -120
Under 14.5 -110
Total Offensive Players Drafted in First Round
Over 16.5 --110
Under 16.5 -120
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Best Fits for Top Prospects
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Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama: Houston Texans
Anderson is the top-ranked prospect on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's draft board, and while he's not going No. 1 overall, he could go soon after that.
If the Texans pass on a quarterback at No. 2, Houston could become an ideal landing spot for Anderson. The 6'3", 253-pound prospect has the potential to be a true difference-maker off the edge, and the Texans need playmakers almost across the board.
Anderson would step right into a prominent role, and he would get to play for former Texans linebacker and former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans. After working with Nick Bosa and the vaunted 49ers defense, Ryans knows the importance of a game-wrecking pass-rusher and how to best utilize him.
The Texans might opt for Wilson instead, but Houston would be a great spot for the top player and top defender on the B/R board.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State: Carolina Panthers
Stroud is the top quarterback on the B/R board and the sixth-ranked overall prospect. Even if the Panthers prefer the playmaking Young, Carolina would be a terrific landing spot for Stroud. He might not possess the physical upside of Young, but he's accurate, is a fast processor and has plenty of arm strength.
"There isn't a throw Stroud can't make when in rhythm, and his high-end flashes of touch placement are better than anyone else's in the class," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.
Though the Panthers traded D.J. Moore in their bid to acquire the top pick, they have a fairly strong supporting cast. After free agency, Carolina has Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., Terrace Marshall Jr., Hayden Hurst and dual-threat running back Miles Sanders at the skill positions.
Stroud could be a high-end distributor in Carolina, and head coach Frank Reich knows a thing or two about turning a pure pocket passer into a Super Bowl champion—something he did with Nick Foles as the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas: Philadelphia Eagles
Running back is one of the few positions where there seems to be a clear top prospect. Texas' Bijan Robinson is the top back on the B/R board and the fourth-ranked overall prospect.
Robinson is a truly special player and an offensive standout who can do a little bit of everything well.
The Eagles and their run-heavy offense would provide a wonderful opportunity for Robinson to become an early star. Philadelphia lost Sanders in free agency, and Robinson could truly shine behind arguably the league's best offensive line and next to dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts.
"I know the Eagles haven't drafted a running back in the first round since the 1980s," Schrager wrote. "I also know there aren't many elite players in this class. Robinson is one. Pure and simple."
Both Schrager and McShay paired Robinson with the Eagles at No. 10, and there's a reason for that. It's a virtually ideal fit for both the player and the team.
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