2023 NFL Draft Rumors That Should Worry Fantasy Football Managers the Most
With less than two weeks before the 2023 NFL draft, the league's news cycle and rumor mill are spinning at a dizzying rate. And many of those stories (and potential ones) could have a sizable impact on fantasy football leagues this year.
As the start of the draft on April 27 nears, a pair of MVP quarterbacks remain in limbo because of a contract or a trade impasse. At least one top-10 running back is unhappy about his paycheck. Another is plenty pleased by his, but the team writing it may be ready to move on.
And that's without touching any of the myriad rumors regarding where this year's top running back and wide receiver prospects will begin their professional careers.
Now, some of these sagas will likely have happy endings. Trades will get done. Franchise tags will be signed. Rookies will land in dream spots with a clear path to early playing time.
But others are cause for legitimate concern for fantasy managers. And depending on how things proceed over the weeks and months to come, by the time fantasy draft season gets underway in earnest this summer, concern may have turned to full-blown panic.
Bijan Robinson Watch
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There's no question about who the top fantasy rookie is in 2023. It's Bijan Robinson's world, and everyone else is just living in it.
It's not just a matter of Robinson being the top running back prospect by a wide margin. This year's class of wide receivers isn't especially imposing. Robinson is the unanimous No. 1 rookie in fantasy leagues that start just one quarterback, and the consensus rankings at Fantasy Pros have Robinson slotted as an RB1 before we even know what team he'll play for.
There's a growing sentiment that team will be the Philadelphia Eagles, with Rhett Lewis of NFL.com one of a number of draftniks who have mocked Robinson to Philly.
"How high is too high for a running back? When the back is one of the best overall players in this class, No. 10 seems reasonable to me," he said. "I love the fit here, considering Philly's commitment to the run and clear aim to maximize a championship window with a blossoming young quarterback."
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
The Eagles would be a dream landing spot for Robinson. It's also not going to happen—especially with the 10th overall pick.
Drafting a running back that high would run contrary to just about everything Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman has ever done. As a matter of fact, Roseman has never used a top-50 pick on a running back. Miles Sanders at No. 53 in 2019 is the earliest he has drafted a back, and the Eagles let him walk in free agency despite a career year in 2022.
In the most recent mock draft by the B/R NFL Scouting Department, Robinson didn't come off the board until No. 22. Given the devaluation of his position, that's a more realistic outcome. And talented though he may be, if Robinson lands somewhere like Baltimore or Dallas, he's going to share touches as a rookie.
There's a real chance that Robinson's fantasy value is at its zenith right now. And if you have the first pick in a dynasty rookie draft, a compelling argument can be made for shopping it.
Aaron Rodgers Trade Stalemate
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From the moment that Aaron Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show that he intended to play for the New York Jets in 2023, dynasty managers with Garrett Wilson were waiting for a deal to get done so that they could light a victory cigar.
Those cigars remain unlit.
While appearing on the Wilde and Tausch Show, Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports indicated that talks are at a stalemate, with the Packers asking for more compensation than the Jets are willing to give.
"The Packers are holding out for what they want right now," Robinson said. "Green Bay is stuck on an asking price of a two this year, a straight-shot one next year ... and they'd be willing to do the 2025, some sort of draft-asset giveback, if for some reason Aaron Rodgers doesn't play in 2024."
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
This is a worry that may not be a worry at all. Both the Jets and Packers have no shortage of motivation to get this deal done, whether it's because of New York's need for a quarterback or the massive cap hit the Packers are looking at with Rodgers on the roster.
But as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported, as things stand, it doesn't appear a trade will happen before this year's draft. And that begs a question…
What if the deal doesn't get done? What if both sides remain so dug in that the whole thing falls apart? It's unlikely but not impossible.
And it would be a catastrophe for the fantasy value of Wilson, Corey Davis, Allen Lazard and the Jets receivers. To say that there's a drop-off between a four-time NFL MVP and Zach "Wormburner" Wilson is the mother of all understatements. It won't do young running back Breece Hall any favors either.
At some point, cooler heads will likely prevail. Someone will blink.
But if they don't, the Packers and Jets could both be a hot mess in 2023.
Eagles Looking at Jahmyr Gibbs?
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Bijan Robinson isn't the only running back linked to the Eagles of late. In a recent mock draft at ESPN, Mel Kiper Jr. predicted that Philadelphia will trade back from No. 30 overall, adding draft capital before snagging Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs early in Round 2.
Kiper explained the pick on a conference call with reporters.
"I think you'll look at where we are right now with running back [and] Gibbs is an all-around guy, and he's a heck of a receiver out of the backfield," he said. "[They took] Miles Sanders in the second round when they passed on Josh Jacobs. Gibbs I think would be intriguing because he can do a little more than people think because of his running skills."
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
Kiper's prediction isn't purely speculative. ESPN's Matt Miller reported "running back comes up a lot when talking to both team and league sources about the Eagles' draft plans."
The idea of Gibbs landing in Philly isn't cause for concern unless you happen to have Rashaad Penny in a dynasty league. As Gilberto Manzano wrote for Sports Illustrated, the Cincinnati Bengals are another team that would be a good fit for the 5'9", 199-pounder.
"Gibbs lacks size, but he's a versatile running back who can quickly become a quarterback's best friend on the field," Manzano said. "He's a standout pass-catcher, and his skill set resembles what Austin Ekeler has done for the Chargers. With Samaje Perine now in Denver, Gibbs would form a strong backfield committee with Joe Mixon—if the Bengals don't part with Mixon."
Now, the issue with Gibbs is that first part. He's a smaller running back, as well as one who has never been in a lead role. In three seasons at Georgia Tech and Alabama, Gibbs topped 150 carries just once and never had a 200-touch campaign.
It's not a stretch to imagine that many teams view him less as an every-down back and more as a complementary piece or part of a committee.
And while the talent is there with the youngster, a murky path to touches could knock him a rung or two down the rookie rankings at his position.
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Dalvin Cook's Uncertain Future in Minnesota
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At this time one year ago, Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings was a top-10 fantasy option and a first-round draft pick. Per Fantasy Pros, his average draft position in 2022 was fifth among running backs and seventh overall.
Fast forward to 2023, and Cook may not even be a Viking much longer.
Per ESPN's Kevin Seifert, when asked by reporters about Cook's future in Minnesota, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was noncommittal.
"Conversations are always ongoing with him," he said. "We're trying to be solutions-oriented and always try to put the roster together within our constraints."
Cook, who signed a five-year, $63 million extension in 2020, carries a cap hit of just over $14 million in 2023.
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
This isn't the first time that Cook's future in the Twin Cities has come into question. There have been reports for some time that the Vikings were looking to move Cook via a trade. Now, that buzz is heating up again.
It's not that Cook had a bad season in 2022. The 27-year-old topped 1,100 rushing yards, averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry, scored 10 total touchdowns and finished 10th in PPR points among running backs.
But teams are becoming more and more leery of paying running backs big money, and the Vikings committed over $6 million in guarantees to Alexander Mattison in the offseason.
From Mattison's perspective, Cook moving on would be a good thing. It clears the path to a featured back role. But for Cook, hitting the market this late in the offseason would likely be a disaster. There are a few potential landing spots where he could salvage most of his value. But it's far more likely that his workload would become cloudy in a new home.
And for fantasy running backs, cloudy is bad.
Ravens Not Finished at Wide Receiver?
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The Baltimore Ravens recently made a major splash in free agency, agreeing to terms with veteran wideout Odell Beckham Jr. on a one-year deal. It was a badly needed infusion of talent at a position of weakness for the team, but some in the draftnik community believe the Ravens still aren't done adding at the position.
Despite the Beckham signing, there are still no shortage of mock drafts in which the Ravens target a wideout with the 22nd pick. For Josh Edwards of CBS Sports, that receiver was Quentin Johnston of TCU.
"Baltimore may or may not have Lamar Jackson next season," he wrote. "Regardless of who is at quarterback, the team needs more pass-catchers. Quentin Johnston is a tall boundary threat who has some ability to shake loose post-catch."
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
Jackson's contract impasse with the Ravens isn't the cause for concern. Despite a lack of progress between player and team, unless a surprise offer comes along, the Jackson saga is going to end of two ways. Either he'll sign an extension with Baltimore, or he'll play under the franchise tag in 2023.
Jackson doesn't have any real leverage, and he's not going to leave $32.4 million on the table.
No, the problem here is that the more crowded the Ravens' pass-catching corps becomes, the less likely it is that any of their wideouts will be a fantasy difference-maker.
Even if you believe that the passing attack will be markedly better under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens are still going to be a run-first team. In Jackson's four full seasons as starter, they have ranked 28th or lower in pass attempts three times.
Baltimore is going to want to get a return on the $13.8 million in guarantees it handed Beckham. Tight end Mark Andrews is going to be a major part of the passing game. A rookie would be no better than the No. 3 option in a low-volume passing attack.
That's not great.
Saquon Barkley's Contract Impasse
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In 2022, Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants had one of the best seasons of his five-year career. He set a career high with 1,312 rushing yards, eclipsed 1,600 yards from scrimmage, found the end zone 10 times and finished the year fifth among running backs in PPR points.
However, despite that fantastic season, Barkley hasn't received the long-term deal he's seeking. After reportedly turning down a contract that averaged roughly $12 million a season last November, Barkley was hit with a franchise tag that would pay him just over $10 million for 2023.
Per ESPN, Barkley has no intentions of signing that tender.
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
It's possible that this will be much ado about nothing by the time training camp rolls around. The Giants and Barkley have until July 15 to work out an extension. The cold reality is that Barkley has little leverage. And at the NFL owners meetings in Arizona, team owner John Mara said that the franchise wants Barkley to spend his entire career in New York.
"I told Saquon we want him to be a Giant for his entire career," Mara said. "He provides leadership, he's a great player and we'd like to be able to get something done with him at some point. The running back market is what it is right now, but I'm still hopeful at some point we will come to an agreement."
However, about the only leverage Barkley does have is holding out. Or at least threatening to. He reportedly is seeking $14 million a season, and the Giants took their offer from last year off the table. The gap between player and team isn't a narrow one.
And if we do get to July without a deal being struck, the odds of a holdout from an unhappy player go way up. And even if Barkley eventually reports, this situation has the makings of a cloud that could hang over the team all season.
Clouds are the last thing you want from a first-round pick.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Making the Rounds
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As has already been mentioned, this isn't an especially strong draft class at wide receiver. In the opinion of the B/R NFL Draft Scouting Department, the aforementioned Quentin Johnston is the best of the bunch. Just behind Johnston is Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has been busy on the visit circuit of late.
Per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, Smith-Njigba has either recently visited or will visit the Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys.
In the most recent mock draft at Bleacher Report, Smith-Njigba is going 12th overall to the Texans.
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
For starters, as B/R's Derrik Klassen wrote, while Smith-Njigba is a polished route-runner with a high floor, his limitations as a player also cap his ceiling.
"For slot-needy teams, Smith-Njigba is the answer," he said. "He's an excellent possession receiver from the slot with his route-running intelligence, quarterback friendliness and adequate blocking skills. It's just hard to imagine someone with Smith-Njigba's lackluster speed and inability to play outside (for now, at least) being a bona fide star receiver. Smith-Njigba projects best as a slot-only type who can be a high-end No. 2 option."
Also, of those teams Rapoport mentioned, there isn't a single realistic landing spot that would be favorable for fantasy managers. Smith-Njigba isn't falling to the Bills at No. 27. Dallas and Baltimore pick outside of the top 20 and present a tricky path to targets as a rookie. The Texans and Falcons both have massive holes at the quarterback position, and Smith-Njigba would likely be third in the pecking order in Atlanta.
If the Texans land C.J. Stroud at No. 2 and then use the 12th pick to keep the former Ohio State teammates together, that would be the best-case scenario.
The rest? Not good.
More Michael Gallup in Dallas in 2023?
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Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup had a season to forget in 2022. While working his way back from the ACL tear that cut his 2021 campaign short, he was a non-factor. His 424 receiving yards and 10.9 yards per catch both marked career lows.
However, Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy believes a rebound season could be coming.
Per Calvin Watkins of the Dallas Morning News, McCarthy said that he expects Gallup to be a bigger part of the Cowboys' new-look offense in 2023.
Why Fantasy Managers Should Worry
There has been no shortage of reports regarding what the offense will look like with McCarthy calling the plays, but the latest seemingly flies in the face of McCarthy's earlier assertion that Dallas will run the ball more this year. Even then, the coach told reporters that the scheme wasn't going to change that much this year.
"I don't see a huge change in the run component of it schematically. But you know it's just like anything. If you put three play-callers in the same room and you gave them the same play, they'd probably all call it a little differently. So, I think that's to be expected. I think the second point is you've got to evolve it every year anyways. You know, if we didn't make the change at play-caller we'd be evolving anyways," he said.
It's not a matter of talent with Gallup. In 2019, he caught 66 passes, eclipsed 1,100 yards and averaged almost 17 yards per reception.
But even if Dallas does approach last year's 556 pass attempts, there are only so many targets to go around. CeeDee Lamb is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver, and running back Tony Pollard will be a sizable part of the passing game too. The departure of tight end Dalton Schultz frees up some targets, but the arrival of Brandin Cooks should eat up those looks—and then some.
One of two things is going to happen. Either Gallup's rebound isn't coming, or Cooks isn't going to be the factor in Dallas that many fantasy managers expect.
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