LSU vs. Alabama: Preview, Predictions for 2012 BCS National Championship Game

The BCS bowls are finally here and you can't talk big bowl games without talking about the BCS National Championship Game. If the first match between LSU and Alabama was any indication, version 2.0.12 should be a thriller.

The match isn't without controversy. Would it be a national title game without controversy?

Is Alabama the best choice for this contest? Certainly, they've put together a great season.

However, they played LSU once already and lost at home to the Tigers. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State also posted a one-loss record and at least has an argument that they belonged in this contest.

On top of that, this is a contest between two teams that not only grace the same conference, but play in the same division of the same conference. For the first time, we have a team that didn't even win its own division playing for the national title.

What's done is done however, and the matchup between these two programs promises to be a thriller.

Who will come out on top and who should you watch in the "Game of the Century II"?

LSU Run Game Is Key to Tiger Victory

LSU doesn't have a single featured running back. Instead they have a trio of sophomore runners that have combined for just over 2,000 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns.

That trio is going up against the No. 1 rushing defense in the country, though. In their first meeting with the Crimson Tide, the Tigers put together 148 rushing yards.

They'll need all of that and more in the second go 'round.

LSU doesn't have a particularly effective pass attack. In fact, it's not good at all, statistically speaking. The Tigers rank 105th in the nation in passing offense, averaging only 160.2 yards per game through the air.

The strength of this Tiger team has been its defense. That's great unless you're going against another defensively stout team. There has to be some resemblance of an offense and LSU's best bet is the run game.

The pace will likely be slow and LSU needs their youngsters to step up big and keep the chains churning down field with consistent success on the ground.

Don't Expect the Same Coaching Miscues from Alabama

One of the most maddening aspects of the first meeting between these two teams for Tide fans would be the kicking game. Alabama missed four field goals through the course of the game.

Hitting even half of those missed field goals would have been enough to lift Alabama over LSU and we'd be talking about how the Tide had already run the gauntlet instead of the Tigers.

Blame the kickers all you want, but as much of the fault for those miscues rest on the shoulders of Nick Saban.

Calling for Cade Foster to try from 44 yards in the first quarter was no big deal. You have to try and you have to show your kicker you have faith in him. Asking him to hit from 50 yards out on the next possession is a little shakier, but forgivable to a degree.

After that, Saban went to Jeremy Shelley on the next two kicks. The first attempt from 49 yards was blocked, which rests on the shoulders of the blockers. The next one was made from 34 yards out.

However, his defense was playing exceptionally well. They were stifling LSU's offense and getting the ball back fairly quickly.

Punting the ball away and pinning LSU deep in their own territory would have been preferable to allowing them have the ball near midfield. Chances are, the Tide would have gotten the ball back in much better position themselves and offered better opportunities to score from much closer than they were forced to attempt from.

Don't expect Saban to take those chances again in similar situations. Look for Saban to pin the Tigers deep in their own territory and allow his defense to get the ball back in good position.

The Game Itself Will Change the Way It's Played

For those expecting another 9-6 kind of game, don't. This is different.

Certainly, Alabama was fired up to play LSU back in November and vice versa. They both knew what was at stake in that game—a chance to get right where they are now.

This is the game. It's on a neutral field. It will be played in front of the largest national audience of any other game. The winner officially gets to hoist the crystal football.

By its very nature, this game will bring out the best in both teams. There won't be any need for extra-conservatism. There's nothing further to play for after this game. It's all or nothing.

I wouldn't expect Les Miles to hold back either on offense or defense. While he coached a relatively conservative and smart game the first time around, I would expect him to pull out the stops this time. He'll want to put Alabama down early and try to hold them there.

If he's remotely successful, Saban may not have much choice but to open up the game plan as well.

If you prefer, reverse the roles, but I wouldn't. Historically speaking, Saban is a conservative coach while Miles is a much bigger gambler.

Remember also that Alabama actually outperformed LSU in the first match. They just didn't capitalize on their relative success. Don't expect the same outcome if the Tide are able to do even a minuscule measure more in this game than they did the first time around.

One way or another, a coach is going to have to (by choice or necessity) open things up and take some chances. The end result should be a higher score than the first meeting.

Defenses Will Still Rule the Day

If you don't like defensive football, you're not going to be that impressed with this matchup. There's just no two ways of cutting it, these are defense-first teams.

Alabama has a tremendous running back in Trent Richardson, but he'll be facing the toughest run defense on 'Bama's schedule. LSU has a multitude of tools at their disposal including Jordan Jefferson, but he hasn't had to take on any defenses tougher than the Tide's.

If you're a defensive-minded fan, this game is a dream showdown.

Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the country against the run. They're also No. 1 against the pass.

LSU is ranked No. 3 against the run and No. 8 against the pass.

To be in the top 10 in either of those statistical categories usually translates into success on the field. For both teams to rank inside the top 10 in both categories is flat out sickening.

There will be big hits and great stops. Offensive production will be extremely hard to come by for both teams.

The team that blinks first may well be the team that loses the game.

And the Prediction Is...

So, who will win the rematch of the "Game of the Century"?

Alabama has the more complete team, but that didn't help them in their own home stadium back in November.

Still, the Tide outgunned LSU and out-played them pretty much all day. They gave up field position and still didn't allow them to do anything more than a few field goals.

Alabama largely lost because they couldn't hit the long field goals. I don't think they'll even try this time around.

Look for the pace to be slow and the first half to look a lot like the last game these two played. The second half will be different, though.

As the coaches start to open up the game plans, things will shake up a little more. Turnovers will be more of a factor this time around and there will be some gutsy calls that could make or break a team's ultimate performance.

In the end, I'll fall back on the stats. Alabama had more yards, a better passing percentage and a better third down conversion rate.

They'll do it again, only this time they won't muff most of their field-goal attempts.

Prediction: Alabama 17, LSU 13