Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: Power Ranking the Elite Eight Teams
Adios, Alabama.
Happy trails, Houston.
TTYL, UCLA.
The 2023 men's NCAA tournament was already out of control in the first two rounds, but now we are officially in uncharted territory.
Never before has there been an Elite Eight with no No. 1 seeds. Nor has there ever been an Elite Eight with fewer than two combined No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.
Yet, here we are, offering up a new batch of power rankings for an Elite Eight that no amount of bracket-picking sorcery could have projected.
One important thing to note: Difficulty of the path to the national championship has no bearing on this list. Rather, this could be considered a ranking of how we would reseed the remaining eight teams based on perceived strength.
We'll examine how teams have played thus far, their Most Outstanding Player candidates and what they need to do to win it all.
8. Florida Atlantic Owls
1 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (24), Pre-Sweet 16 (15)
What We've Learned: For the record, Purdue losing in the first round as a No. 1 seed and Princeton reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed are not indications that the selection committee screwed up. Those are just absurd March Madness things that happened.
But the selection committee did screw up.
FAU deserved better than a No. 9 seed, and we all knew that long before this run to the Elite Eight. The Owls' seed was one of the things I griped about in our annual "Who got screwed?" article on Selection Sunday. They were 13th in NET and had an average rank across the six metrics of 27.2. There's a lot more that goes into determining seeding, but that number alone suggests FAU should've been a No. 7 seed.
The problem, of course, is that the Owls hadn't faced anyone worth mentioning. Great metrics, but no actual evidence they could beat a quality opponent. Until now.
They battled back from a seven-point deficit midway through the second half against a good, old Memphis team, survived a battle with FDU in which the entire world was rooting against them and then had an even more impressive comeback against Tennessee, putting together an 18-2 run against one of the best defenses in the nation. These Owls belong in the Elite Eight.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Johnell Davis. Despite standing just 6'4", Davis is the de facto power forward for the Owls. And through three tournament games, he is averaging 18.7 points and 7.7 rebounds. He was sensational in the second-round win over FDU, finishing that one with 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals. And he came through in the clutch against Tennessee, going 6-of-6 from the charity stripe (plus an assist and two rebounds) in the final five minutes.
X-Factor: Three-point shooting. Coming into the tournament, FAU was shooting 37.2 percent from distance and had not once sputtered through back-to-back games below 30 percent. But the Owls have had three consecutive tourney games below that mark yet keep finding a way to win. They got hot for a few minutes during the big second-half run against Tennessee, but we've yet to see them really catch fire.
Championship Blueprint: Maybe they're saving those triples for the latter half of a title run? Because FAU could win it all if those deep shots start falling. The Owls have shown remarkable heart and poise, outrebounding each of their first three opponents despite never having two players taller than 6'4" on the floor at any juncture.
7. San Diego State Aztecs
2 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (18), Pre-Sweet 16 (13)
What We've Learned: It actually is possible for a Mountain West team to reach the Elite Eight.
Since its formation before the 1999-00 campaign, the MWC had placed (excluding the current season) 55 teams into the NCAA tournament. None of them had made it to a regional final. Only a handfulโ2005 Utah, 2007 Nevada, 2011 BYU, 2011 San Diego State, 2014 San Diego State and 2018 Nevadaโhad advanced to a Sweet 16. And with Nevada, Boise State and Utah State all eliminated before the end of the first Thursday, it sure looked like business as usual for this perpetually underperforming league.
But finally, mercifully, the Aztecs did it.
They barely survived their opener against Charleston, but defense has carried them to the promised land. They locked down the Cougars late in that one, shut down Furman for the majority of those 40 minutes and then held a normally excellent Alabama offense to 3-of-27 shooting from distance in a 71-64 upset Friday.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Nathan Mensah. It'd be unconventional to award the M.O.P. trophy to a player who hasn't scored in double figures since before Valentine's Day, but Mensah is the sine qua non of SDSU's defense, as evidenced by his nine blocks thus far in the dance. He also has 17 rebounds over his last two games. (But if Matt Bradley shoots it better the rest of the way, he'll reemerge as the top candidate here.)
X-Factor: Three-point defense. Alabama's 3-of-27 performance Friday night was particularly brutal, but teams throwing up long-range bricks against this defense is nothing new. In six games played since the start of the MWC tournament, opponents are shooting 28-of-137 (20.4 percent) from downtown.
Championship Blueprint: Keep wanting it more than the opposition. The Aztecs have been relentless on defense and tough on the glass. It has long been this program's M.O., but it's working in March for a change. This was an underappreciated team all season long, but it might actually be the best team left from the especially broken half of the bracket.
6. Miami Hurricanes
3 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (30), Pre-Sweet 16 (14)
What We've Learned: Norchad Omier's ankle is feeling just fine.
Miami's big man suffered a nasty-looking ankle injury early in the ACC tournament loss to Duke. We're talking a "ruled out of returning to the game almost immediately" type of injury, leaving us to wonder if A) he'd be able to play in the tournament or B) Miami could make any sort of run without him.
But the 6'7" center has been looking like Charles Barkley in the lane, averaging 14.7 rebounds per game to go along with 10.3 points, 1.3 assists and 1.3 steals. He held his own against Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis and Houston's Jarace Walker, and each opponent in the dance has shot below 49 percent from inside the arc against the Hurricanes, even though Omier has yet to block a shot.
When Omier records a double-double, Miami is 15-1. The lone loss was an overtime game at NC State. The 'Canes can win it all if he keeps owning the paint.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Nijel Pack OR Isaiah Wong. Pack was the star of the opening win over Drake with 21 points. Wong led the way with 27 points and eight rebounds against Indiana. Then it was Pack's turn again with seven triples and 26 total points against Houston. Will it be Wong again in the Elite Eight? Or Pack? Or perhaps Omier or Jordan Miller? Scarcity of dudes who can put the team on their back is definitely not a problem for Miami.
X-Factor: Defense. So far, so good on this front. Miami shut down Drake's offense and was better than expected on that end of the floor in the two most recent games. But this is still the same team that allowed 83 points to Virginia Tech, 85 to both Louisville and Florida State and 87 to Wake Forest, all in the span of 26 days late in the regular season. The Hurricanes still won three of those games because of their offense, but it's likely the defense will eventually gets torched.
Championship Blueprint: Stay hot on offense. Not a single team scored 78 points against Houston this season until Miami exploded for 89 points in the Sweet 16. And if you can score like that against the Cougars defense, you can shoot your way to a title.
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5. Kansas State Wildcats
4 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (14), Pre-Sweet 16 (7)
What We've Learned: It's actually the year of the small man. That became clear when the least-tall roster in the nation (Fairleigh Dickinson) eliminated 7'4" Zach Edey in the first round, but Kansas State's 5'8" Markquis Nowell's evolution into the indisputable biggest star of this tournament has further driven home the "might over height" narrative.
Kansas State has gotten great contributions from elsewhere too. Keyontae Johnson is averaging nearly 18 points per game. Ismael Massoud had a massive triple against Kentucky and several more in the win over Michigan State. Nae'Qwan Tomlin has scored in double figures in every game and has provided great defense in the paint.
It's not a one-man show that got Kansas State from the Little Apple to the Big Apple, but Nowell has stolen all of the spotlight with his combination of heroics and theatrics. Even if Kansas State loses this next game to Florida Atlantic, I might try to write in Nowell for Most Outstanding Player next week in Houston.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Nowell. What an unbelievable run for the star out of New York Cityโone that has inescapably resulted in Kemba Walker comparisons. Nowell set the NCAA tournament single-game record with 19 assists against Michigan State, and he's averaging 14.0 dimes to go along with 21.3 points and 3.7 steals. It's all reminiscent of the first three games in Big 12 play in which he went for a combined 91 points, 33 assists and 10 steals.
X-Factor: Turnovers. For as great as Nowell can be, he does get sloppy on occasion. It hasn't been an issue yet, as Kansas State finished plus-eight in turnover margin in each of the wins over Kentucky and Michigan State. And when their takeaways outnumber their giveaways, the Wildcats have been unbeatable, sitting at 17-0 in games with a positive turnover margin.
Championship Blueprint: Let Nowell and Johnson cook. I mentioned this before the Sweet 16 game, but it bears repeating/updating. Kansas State is 22-2 when Nowell and Johnson post a combine O-rating of at least 192, and the Wildcats are a perfect 14-0 when each half of that duo has an O-rating of 103 or better. It doesn't have to be alley-oops for reverse slams with one minute remaining in a tight game, but it sure is more fun when that's the way they're stealing the show.
4. Creighton Bluejays
5 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (15), Pre-Sweet 16 (8)
What We've Learned: The preseason hype was justified.
Creighton ended up with a No. 6 seed because it suffered 12 losses. Eight of those came during a disappointing 9-8 start to the season, at which point people were talking about the Bluejays being as much of a letdown as preseason AP No. 1 North Carolina.
But this No. 6 seed has been borderline unstoppable, winning each of its first three tournament games by at least a nine-point margin.
Ryan Kalkbrenner scored 31 in the opener against NC State. Ryan Nembhard went for 30 in the win over Baylor. And in the Sweet 16 victory over Princeton, Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman each scored at least 19 points. Haven't even mentioned Arthur Kaluma yet, and he might have the most raw talent on the roster.
It took a while for everything to click, but Creighton sure looks the part of the preseason Top 10 team that it was five months ago.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Kalkbrenner. The big man didn't dominate Baylor's porous frontcourt defense the way we thought he might, but he's still averaging 21.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in the tournament. Creighton has a bunch of solid perimeter shooters, but Kalkbrenner is the metronome in the paint who shoots over 70 percent from the field.
X-Factor: Perimeter defense. Creighton rarely forced turnovers during the regular season and has just nine steals thus far in the tournament. But this defense does excel at running shooters off the three-point arc, keeping perimeter jumpers to a minimum. The Bluejays were especially on point in this regard against a Baylor team that basically lived on three-pointers all season long.
Championship Blueprint: Stay healthy and stay hungry. Of the remaining eight teams, Creighton has the least depth. The bench has scored 16 total points in the tournament, 14 of those from Francisco Farabello, who doesn't shoot much (or well). But the Bluejays' starting five is a quintessential quintet, capable of winning it all if it can avoid both injury and a widespread cold spell.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs
6 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (11), Pre-Sweet 16 (6)
What We've Learned: Maybe defense doesn't win championships anymore? Historically speaking, the top-five offense/not-top-75 defense teams have not lasted long in the tournament. Inevitably, there's a game where they can't score 80 points or can't stop their opponent from scoring 85 and they almost always get bounced before the Elite Eight.
But this Gonzaga teamโwhich was No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 76 on defense heading into the danceโseemingly can't be stopped, knocking out TCU's top-25 defense before eliminating maybe the best defense in the nation in UCLA.
In fairness, the Zags have had a lot of luck in the form of opponents missing players. TCU didn't have Eddie Lampkin Jr. and UCLA was without both Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona. It's hard enough to slow Drew Timme at full strength, but with both of those teams missing their starting center, it was impossible. Still, opponents have continued their season-long trend of scoring almost at will.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Timme. Gonzaga's center has averaged 28.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.0 blocks through three tournament games. And, out of nowhere, he's even hitting threes now, too. Timme was 2-of-22 from distance for the season, last making a long-range shot on New Year's Eve in a blowout of Pepperdine. But he's 2-of-2 in the dance.
X-Factor: Defense. As in, can the Zags play any? UCLA had 46 points by halftime and was leading by 13 in a game that looked just about over. And if the Bruins hadn't missed 11 consecutive field-goal attempts, they surely would have won. TCU also broke 80 points against Gonzaga, and that team can't even shoot. TCU ranks 210th in effective field-goal percentage. UCLA is 152nd. Connecticut is 29th. Simply outscoring this next opponent might not be an option.
Championship Blueprint: Keep playing in high-scoring affairs. The Zags are a perfect 29-0 when scoring at least 75 points, so their best hope of finally winning an NCAA tournament is to make the final score look like more of an NBA game. After all, they did beat Alabama 100-90 in mid-December. Maybe they can do something similar the rest of the way.
2. Texas Longhorns
7 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (7), Pre-Sweet 16 (4)
What We've Learned: This defense is no joke.
Colgate, Penn State and Xavier were three of the best shooting teams in the country this season, but none of them could buy a bucket against this Longhorns defense, holding them to an average of 66.0 points.
This was a severely Jekyll and Hyde defense during the regular season, though. At their peak, the Longhorns shut down Gonzaga and twice held Kansas below 60 points. At their valley, they let Kansas State score 116 in regulation and had no answer for the mediocre offenses of Iowa State or Tennessee.
But they've been in Jekyll mode over the course of their past seven games, defending better than any other team in the dance.
Better hope they can keep it going, though, with a potent Miami offense looming Sunday, followed by an even better Connecticut or Gonzaga offense in the Final Four.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Marcus Carr. There's a lot of depth for the Longhorns, as evidenced by five guys scoring in double figures against Xavier. One of those is Sir'Jabari Rice, who has been in some kind of zone over the past two months. But the season-long staple has been Carr, who has scored at least 10 points in 14 of his last 15 games, and who runs the show on both ends of the floor with his assists and defense.
X-Factor: Three-point shooting. Good luck forecasting this lot. Texas shot 13-of-25 from distance against Colgate, followed it up with a 1-of-13 effort against Penn State and then was hot again for a 7-of-12 performance against Xavier. The Longhorns can win without the deep ball, and in fact have gone 12-1 when making five or fewer triples. But there might not be a bigger X-Factor left in this tournament than the complete unknown of whether Texas will be able to hit water in the ocean.
Championship Blueprint: Keep winning the game with defense and keep not losing it on offense. The Longhorns got sloppy in the opener against Colgate, allowing the Raiders to rack up 11 steals. But they committed just five turnovers against Penn State and Xavier had just two steals Friday night. Turnover margin has been a strength for this Longhorns team all season long, and they could ride it to a title.
1. Connecticut Huskies
8 of 8
Previous Rankings: Pre-Tournament (6), Pre-Sweet 16 (3)
What We've Learned: The boys are back in town. For the first seven weeks of the season, Connecticut was the most insatiable team in the country, destroying everything in its path, winning each of its first 13 games by double digits. And in seemingly every one of those games, there was some five- to eight-minute stretch in which the Huskies demoralized their would-be competition.
Well, that team is back. UConn went on a 19-4 run against Iona, a 14-2 run against Saint Mary's and a 14-0 run against Arkansas, in each case taking what was a one-possession game and turning it into a blowout in a hurry. The Huskies have won their first three games by a combined margin of 62 points.
And save for one off night at Creighton in mid-February, that team has been back for a while. Connecticut has won 12 of its last 14 games and has yet to win by fewer than six points in this entire season. When the Huskies are hot, they're red-hot.
Most Outstanding Player Candidate: Adama Sanogo. UConn's 6'9" star has been feasting in the paint, shooting 33-of-44 (75.0 percent) from the field while averaging 23.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game. It has been a rough tournament for that whole "Year of the Big Man" narrative, but certainly not for this particular big man.
X-Factor: Depth. Connecticut's bench is averaging 20.0 points per game in the dance, and we're not just talking about garbage-time buckets at the end of blowouts. Reserves Donovan Clingan, Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra have played pivotal roles throughout the season and throughout this tournament. Fatigue and/or foul trouble are rarely a concern for this squad.
Championship Blueprint: Continue to own the paint. UConn is one of the few teams that has actually shot it well from distance in this tournament, sitting at 44 percent or better from three-point range in each game. But the real problem for opponents is that Connecticut has convincingly won the rebound battle in each game and is shooting 58.3 percent inside the arc while holding its competition to 36.6 percent. Hard to hang with a team doing that.
Advanced statistics courtesy of KenPom.com.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @KerranceJames
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