Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: Power Ranking the Sweet 16 Teams
After a jam-packed, upset-filled six days of action, the 2023 men's NCAA tournament's field of 68 has been whittled down to a Sweet 16.
At this point, seeding is pretty much irrelevant. Even No. 15 seed Princeton now has the necessary confidence to perhaps pull off another stunner or two.
But how should the remaining 16 teams be ranked?
For the most part, these rankings are based on how well the teams played during the regular season. But teams aren't necessarily in the same order as they were in our pre-tournament power rankings, because a significant amount of consideration was given to how they looked in their first two NCAA tournament games.
Case in point: Michigan State has leapfrogged several teams, while UCLA's mounting injury situation was enough for the Bruins to get bypassed by a few teams that were right on their tail in our power rankings from 10 days ago. Xavier also plummeted several spots after needing a miraculous final few minutes to come back against Kennesaw State.
And while our pre-tournament No. 1 team is still standing, it is no longer No. 1 in the power rankings. That'll happen when you barely survive your opener.
Unlike our title-odds piece from earlier in the week, tournament draw holds no sway here. This is a straight-up ranking of the 16 remaining teams from worst to best.
16. Princeton Tigers
1 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 54
How They've Looked: Poised. Princeton shut down an elite Arizona offense, forcing the Wildcats to play at the Tigers' preferred pace. Against Missouri's great turnover-forcing defense, Princeton was unfazed, committing just nine giveaways while owning the game on the glass and from the perimeter. They weren't supposed to be in the Sweet 16, but they're absolutely acting like they belong.
Bread and Butter: Defensive rebounding. Limiting second-chance opportunities has been a seasonlong strength for the Princeton, and that hasn't changed with the severe uptick in schedule strength. It's one thing to keep Drexel, Dartmouth and Delaware from grabbing offensive rebounds, but the Tigers held Arizona and Missouri to just 15 combined for just two second-chance points apiece.
Achilles' Heel: Forcing turnovers. No D-I opponent has committed more than 14 turnovers against Princeton this season, as the Tigers rank 347th in steal rate. It's a good thing they're so strong on the defensive glass, because opponents are getting up at least one shot on just about every possession.
MVP: Tosan Evbuomwan. A mid-major Jalen Pickett, Evbuomwan averages roughly 15 points, six rebounds and five assists per game. He went for 15-7-4 against Arizona and 9-9-5 against Missouri. He also blocked a shot in each game. Few players fill up the box score like this import from England.
Championship Blueprint: Keep believing when no one else will. Princeton was given basically no chance against Arizona and picked by nearly everyone to lose to Missouri. But the Tigers haven't blinked, and they're still standing. Whatever magic they've harnessed, maybe they can hang onto it for another two weeks.
15. Florida Atlantic Owls
2 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 24
How They've Looked: Slippery. As in glass slipper-y? Because of Cinderella? Get it? Well, whatever. The Owls have looked like a team that could be here for the long haul. They played a great opener against a hot, veteran Memphis team, and then they had the composure down the stretch against Fairleigh Dickinson to eliminate a team playing with all of the house money. Hard to believe this program had never won an NCAA tournament game until a few days ago.
Bread and Butter: Depth. Nine Owls average 16-26 minutes per game, and save for the Vlad Goldin/Giancarlo Rosado tandem at the five, they're pretty much all interchangeable. Unless they try to overdo it with Goldin on occasion, fatigue should never be an issue for this versatile squad.
Achilles' Heel: The schedule. The metrics look great across the board, but did three games against Middle Tennessee really prepare FAU to deal with Tennessee? North Texas and UAB were solid C-USA teams, but the Owls hadn't faced a KenPom top-35 foe until narrowly surviving against No. 20 Memphis. And most of the remaining field rates even higher than that.
MVP: Johnell Davis. Davis has scored at least a dozen points in eight consecutive games, and he was particularly on fire in the second half against FDU, finishing that one with 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals. Kind of hard to beat a team when it has that type of one-man wrecking ball.
Championship Blueprint: Believe it can happen and get the defense to translate against legitimate competition. The first half won't be a problem. Dusty May's Owls are unafraid of this moment and will come out Thursday night fully prepared to pull off an upset. We'll see about the latter half.
14. Miami Hurricanes
3 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 30
How They've Looked: Streaky. In the opener against Drake, Miami scored just 13 points in the first 14 minutes but exploded for 16 points in the final five minutes in a come-from-behind win. Against Indiana, the Hurricanes stormed out to a 28-15 lead and later sealed the deal with a 16-2 run midway through the second half.
Bread and Butter: Scoring versatility. Four different Hurricanes average at least 13 points per game, and five-sixths of their primary rotation shoots better than 35 percent from three-point range. They're top-40 in the nation in three-point, two-point and free-throw percentage. Best of luck in your quest to shut this offense down.
Achilles' Heel: Half-court defense. The Hurricanes generate better than seven steals per game, but the defense isn't great as a whole. Their efficiency numbers are a bit bloated from the 107-105 game against Cornell in December, but they did allow at least 83 points in eight of 34 games played.
MVP: Norchad Omier. Isaiah Wong leads the 'Canes in points, assists and steals, but Omier is the big man they can't live without. He averages better than 13 points and 10 rebounds per game and is their closest thing to a rim-protector.
Championship Blueprint: Go on a scoring spree. Miami is 22-3 when scoring at least 71 points, with two of the three losses ending in dramatic fashion. When Omier, Wong, Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller all get into a groove, this team has been just about unbeatable. Though, this next test against Houston will be their toughest of the season, by far.
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13. San Diego State Aztecs
4 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 18
How They've Looked: Defensive. No surprise there, though. Defense has been SDSU's calling card since 2006-07, and it didn't hurt matters that the Aztecs got to face a No. 12 and No. 13 seed. But Charleston and Furman were both significantly above-average offensive teams before running into San Diego State and scoring 57 and 52, respectively.
Bread and Butter: Perimeter defense. San Diego State allows a lot of three-point attempts, but they're rarely easy looks. And for the year, D-I opponents are shooting just 28.7 percent from distance against the Aztecs. They also have an eraser at the rim in Nathan Mensah, which allows Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell to press up on ball-handlers without fear of allowing an easy deuce.
Achilles' Heel: Shooting. At 50.2 percent, San Diego State is slightly below the national average in effective field-goal percentage. While defense wins championships, offense matters, too. Aside from Matt Bradley—who hasn't scored 20 in a game since December—you have to go back to the first two games of January to find the last time an Aztec scored at least a dozen points in back-to-back games (Butler).
MVP: Matt Bradley. He was both a better scorer and a better rebounder in each of the previous three seasons, but Bradley is still SDSU's go-to guy. He's simply playing in a less ball-dominant role with the addition of Trammell at point guard. Bradley has scored in double figures in 11 of his past 12 games and will be the biggest key to the Aztecs' future.
Championship Blueprint: Control the game with defense; do just enough with offense. San Diego State can score in the 70s or even the 80s on occasion, but it wants to win on the other end of the floor. And to that end, the Aztecs are a perfect 20-0 when holding opponents to 65 points or fewer.
12. Xavier Musketeers
5 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 13
How They've Looked: Resilient. Kennesaw State had Xavier dead to rights, leading by 13 with less than 10 minutes to play in the first round. But the Musketeers went on a 15-0 run, gutting out the most impressive comeback thus far in the tournament. (Maryland also rallied from a 13-point deficit against West Virginia, but that was midway through the first half, not the second half.)
Bread and Butter: Perimeter shooting. Xavier doesn't rely a ton on the deep ball, taking just 31.3 percent of its shots from downtown. But it sure can make them. Led by Souley Boum and Adam Kunkel, the Musketeers shoot 39 percent from three-point range. They've shot at least 40 percent in 18 of 36 games played, including eight games at 50 percent or greater.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter defense. The X-Men aren't exactly bad in this regard, but it's not a strength. Eight of their past 14 opponents committed 10 or fewer turnovers, and five of those 14 teams shot at least 45 percent from three-point range. They've done OK on defense thus far in the dance, but giving up 84 to DePaul in the Big East tournament eight days after allowing Providence to score 89 is still a thing that transpired earlier this month.
MVP: Souley Boum. The sixth-year senior from UTEP was held to one point in the Big East championship loss to Marquette, but he has bounced back for 31 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists through Xavier's first two tourney wins. Boum averages better than 16 points per game, and the Musketeers are a perfect 15-0 when he get at least 16 points and three assists.
Championship Blueprint: Make it rain and stay out of foul trouble. Xavier has no depth since losing big man Zach Freemantle at the end of January. It's basically a six-man rotation with Cesare Edwards occasionally getting minutes in the paint as the seventh man. But when they're making shots, it works for them.
11. Michigan State Spartans
6 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 35
How They've Looked: Steely. Or should I say steal-y? Michigan State was not a turnover-forcing team during the regular season, entering the dance on a 10-game streak of six or fewer steals. But the Spartans had seven against USC and nine more against Marquette, pacing them to victory despite an unusual lack of made three-pointers. If they keep defending like that AND the shots start falling, maybe the Big Ten's 22-year title drought finally comes to an end.
Bread and Butter: Three-point percentage. They don't take a ton of threes, but the Spartans closed out the regular season shooting 49-of-95 (57.6 percent) over their final four games. They're also sitting at 38.7 percent for the season, and that's in spite of a brutal 2-of-16 performance against Marquette on Sunday. Joey Hauser is the best option, but three Spartans shoot north of 40 percent from distance.
Achilles' Heel: Interior offense. It's bizarre that MSU doesn't take a ton of threes, because it's just not very good inside the arc. At 48.2 percent, the Spartans shoot well below the national average on twos and are also sub-par at offensive rebounds and drawing fouls. Far be it from us to question Tom Izzo, but you'd think they'd steer into the three-point prowess a bit more.
MVP: Tyson Walker. Through four games thus far in March, Walker is averaging 15.0 points, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.5 turnovers. And if the Spartans desperately need a bucket at any point, they'll be putting the ball in the hands of No. 2.
Championship Blueprint: Keep killin' 'em with defense. It's hard to believe the team that blew a 10-point lead with 40 seconds remaining against Iowa less than a month ago is suddenly holding good offenses below one point per possession, but capture that lightning in a bottle and ride it to a title.
10. Tennessee Volunteers
7 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 22
How They've Looked: Stingy. Tennessee often allows a lot of free-throw attempts, but that has not been the case thus far in the tournament. Louisiana took nine. Duke was awarded only seven. And it's certainly not because of a lack of defensive intensity. The Vols have 17 steals already and held those first two foes to 53.5 PPG.
Bread and Butter: Physicality. Unless you can turn a steal into a fast-break bucket, there are no easy points against the Volunteers. They hound you along the perimeter, and their help defense in the paint is second to none. This is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Against Duke, they turned 12 offensive rebounds into 12 points, blocked five shots and tallied eight steals. Hard to beat that.
Achilles' Heel: Offense. It's a good thing they're so darn good on the offensive glass, because there's not much else Tennessee does well on that end of the floor. The Vols aren't terrible by any means, but they're slightly below the national average in effective field-goal percentage, turnover percentage and free-throw rate. And because of that, lengthy scoring droughts are relatively common.
MVP: Santiago Vescovi. He's the leading scorer. He's by far their top three-point option. And now that Zakai Zeigler is out, Vescovi is the remaining leader in both assists and steals. Kind of a miracle that they survived the opener against Louisiana while he went for just three points and four assists with three turnovers.
Championship Blueprint: Clamp down on defense and have a couple of guys show up in a big way on offense. Tennessee is undefeated (22-0) when allowing 62 points or fewer, though there have been several close calls on nights when it couldn't get anything to fall on the other end of the floor. As long as guys like Vescovi and Olivier Nkamhoua keep playing well, though, they've got a shot.
9. Arkansas Razorbacks
8 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 25
How They've Looked: Insatiable. The sensational three-man freshman class hasn't delivered much thus far in the dance—Jordan Walsh has been pretty good; Nick Smith Jr. decidedly has not been—but the veterans have been outstanding. Devo Davis and Ricky Council IV have combined for 80 points and 30 rebounds. Makhi Mitchell has been a game-changer in the defensive paint, and Kamani Johnson has been a wrecking ball on the glass. Those guys are locked in.
Bread and Butter: Momentum-shifting defense. Arkansas averages better than eight steals and five blocks per game, which is right up there with Houston for the best combination in the country. And when they can turn those plays into run-outs for easy buckets, even better.
Achilles' Heel: Three-point shooting. Arkansas doesn't even average 5.0 made threes per game. It had been better in that department late in the year after getting Smith back on the floor, but the Hogs are at just 14-of-57 (24.6 percent) in four games played since the beginning of the SEC tournament.
MVP: Ricky Council IV. Smith is the brightest future star. Anthony Black has been a great freshman point guard who leads the team in assists and steals. Davis was the second-half sensation in the win over Kansas. But when Arkansas needs a bucket, Council's the guy they turn to for it.
Championship Blueprint: Keep playing with fire and get the freshmen going. With Arkansas, it has never been a question of talent, but rather one of health and whether everyone will be engaged on both ends of the floor. Thus far, they look great, and there's still plenty of room for improvement if Smith starts hitting shots in the latter rounds.
8. Creighton Bluejays
9 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 15
How They've Looked: Thirty-ish. In each game thus far, both a Creighton player and an opposing player has scored at least 30 points. For the Bluejays, it was Ryan Kalkbrenner in the opener against NC State and Ryan Nembhard in the second-round win over Baylor. The difference has been that Creighton also has had three other players score in double digits in each of those games.
Bread and Butter: Pure shot-making. If you were to add up total turnovers, offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts, Creighton's games might feature the lowest number in the country. Just a ton of one-shot possessions from which the Bluejays bank on their ability to make more buckets—in particular, three-point buckets—than they allow. And it usually works.
Achilles' Heel: Depth. Of all teams, you'd think Creighton would have made it a point to have more than five key players, considering injuries piled up on the Bluejays last March. But no. Aside from Francisco Farabello playing about 16 minutes per game and doing very little while on the floor, Creighton barely turns to its bench unless it has no other choice. One rolled ankle or one whistle-prone officiating crew and they're in deep trouble.
MVP: Ryan Kalkbrenner. The seven-foot center leads the team in points, rebounds and blocks and is one of the most efficient scorers in the nation, making 73.1 percent of his two-point attempts. It's mostly dunks and layups, but he does have some range on his shot. Per BartTorvik, Kalkbrenner makes 52.7 percent of his long twos. He's also a 78.6 percent free-throw shooter and has made six triples on the year. If he comes back for another season and continues to develop that range, he'll be a strong NPOY candidate.
Championship Blueprint: Party of five. If Kalkbrenner, Nembhard, Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Arthur Kaluma are all playing well, Creighton is going to be very tough to beat. Just got to hope that whole quintet stays healthy and out of foul trouble.
7. Kansas State Wildcats
10 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 14
How They've Looked: Myopic. The deep ball has been an issue for Kansas State at just 9-of-36 from distance, but the Wildcats sure are seeing the rim up close. They shot 70 percent inside the arc against Montana State, 63.6 percent against Kentucky and a combined 79.4 percent from the free-throw line. They're not a big team by any means, but they have been crafty and efficient.
Bread and Butter: Perimeter defense. Kansas State had 20 steals between the first two rounds while the opposition shot a combined 10-of-41 from three. Antonio Reeves missed a lot of wide-open shots when he started 0-of-9 from deep, but the defense did make Kentucky work like mad to get him those looks.
Achilles' Heel: Committing turnovers. Markquis Nowell is an incredible talent, but he and Keyontae Johnson both average more than three turnovers per game. And when they're coughing up the ball like that, it mitigates the impact of the perimeter defense on the other end. Foul trouble is also pretty common for the Wildcats, though it usually doesn't impact the two stars.
MVP: Markquis Nowell. For some, it was a toss-up between Nowell and Johnson heading into the tournament. But Nowell went for 17 points and 14 assists in the opener before lighting up Kentucky for 27 points and nine assists. Kansas State is still dancing because of his heroics running the point.
Championship Blueprint: Get the dynamic duo rolling. When Nowell and Johnson have a combined O-rating of greater than 192, Kansas State is 21-2. And when they both post an O-rating of 103 or better, the Wildcats are a perfect 13-0. It all hinges on those two stars and the turnover-forcing defense.
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs
11 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 11
How They've Looked: Unstoppable. Only one team remaining in the Sweet 16 scored at least 75 points in each of its first two games, and the Zags went for 82 against Grand Canyon and 84 against TCU. No surprise there, though. They led the nation in scoring at greater than 87 points per game and have been held below 75 just twice in their past 26 games.
Bread and Butter: Up-tempo offense. Gonzaga scores a lot and does it fast. If you try to beat the Zags at their game, you're almost certainly going to lose. No team is better at making two-point buckets, and this transition offense is second to none, as Drew Timme and Anton Watson have been honing this craft for four years.
Achilles' Heel: Contesting shots. Drew Timme can block shots and Ben Gregg has been a solid eraser during his brief stints on the floor. However, opponents are scoring on Gonzaga like never before. Their defensive effective field-goal percentage of 51.7 is the worst in team history on KenPom, and by a wide margin.
MVP: Drew Timme. The mustachioed marvel is in Perry Ellis territory in that it feels like he has been on the roster for nearly a decade. The veteran big man has scored at least 21 points in nine of his past 10 NCAA tournament games and just had a field day against TCU, finishing with 28 points, eight rebounds and three assists. He can keep the Zags in just about any game.
Championship Blueprint: Score at will. Gonzaga simply isn't built to win games in the 60s and low-70s, but it can run-and-gun with anyone. The Zags are a perfect 28-0 when scoring at least 75 points this season and have gone 111-3 when reaching that mark over the past four years.
5. UCLA Bruins
12 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 5
How They've Looked: Unimpeachable. Despite the injuries to Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona, UCLA has trailed for just 46 seconds in this tournament—early in the second round against Northwestern. The Bruins tore UNC-Asheville to shreds, and though Northwestern clawed back from an early 13-point hole to tie the game midway through the second half, UCLA never blinked and surged right back ahead for good.
Bread and Butter: Turnover margin. At plus-5.6 per game, the Bruins rank second in the nation in this department. Northwestern actually broke even with them, but they had won the turnover battle in 12 of 13 games heading into that one. It's not nearly the strength it was when Clark was playing, but UCLA can still generate takeaways and has committed fewer than 10 turnovers in 11 of its past 12 games.
Achilles' Heel: Scoring in general. It's a common theme in this year's Sweet 16, and UCLA is yet another team that is fantastic on defense and highly suspect on offense. The Bruins avoid turnovers and grab a lot of offensive rebounds, but between their affinity for mid-range jumpers and their not-great three-point shooting (aside from David Singleton), points can be tough to come by.
MVP: Jaime Jaquez Jr. He has been Mr. Everything for UCLA. He went for 41 points, 16 rebounds, five assists and five steals in the first two rounds, and it was nothing out of the ordinary for him. He's a star player who has shone more brightly with each passing year and who is now ready to win a title as a senior.
Championship Blueprint: Get/stay healthy and follow the script. UCLA has the DNA of a champion, boasting a great defense and an offense that can generate points, even with average-at-best shooting percentages. As long as they don't get sped up and they stick to what they do best, they can win four more games.
4. Texas Longhorns
13 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 7
How They've Looked: Defensive. Texas has been looking great on that end of the floor since the regular-season finale against Kansas, but it has been especially impressive in the tournament given the competition faced. Colgate is No. 2 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage. Penn State is No. 11. And Texas held those offenses to a combined total of 127 points in 128 possessions.
Bread and Butter: Turnover Margin. Texas actually lost this battle against Colgate, but that was exceedingly rare. In their final 10 games heading into the dance, the Longhorns forced 165 turnovers while committing just 99. Lead guard Marcus Carr averages better than 2.5 assists per turnover and better than one steal per turnover.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter Shooting. The overall three-point percentage is fine, but Texas is Jekyll and Hyde from one game to the next. The Longhorns have shot north of 54 percent from three-point range four times this season, including the opener against Colgate. They've also shot below 15 percent three times, including the second-round game against Penn State.
MVP: Marcus Carr. Star player who leads the team in points, assists and steals. It has been a bit since he had a big game in the scoring department, but he can impact the game in a big way without even hitting shots. Plus, that just means he's due.
Championship Blueprint: Stay locked in on defense and don't fall in love with the three. Three-point inconsistency hasn't been the cause of Texas' demise. In fact, the Longhorns won each of the three disastrous shooting performances mentioned above. But why test that fate when you're so good at scoring in the paint and at the free-throw line and so good at winning via defense? Keep playing like they have been lately, and Texas could finally win its elusive national championship.
3. Connecticut Huskies
14 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 6
How They've Looked: Tardy. Whatever Dan Hurley is telling his guys at halftime, he might want to switch it up and make that the pregame speech. Connecticut trailed by two at the intermission against Iona and led by just one at halftime against Saint Mary's. Yet, the Huskies won the former by 24 and the latter by 15. Better late than never, but they'd cruise to a title if they could play with that level of intensity for 40 minutes.
Bread and Butter: Rebounding. Connecticut has been particularly dominant on the offensive glass, but it is well above-average on the defensive boards, too, boasting an average rebound margin of plus-9.3. Led by Adama Sanogo, Andre Jackson and Donovan Clingan, the Huskies have won the rebounding battle in 18 consecutive games.
Achilles' Heel: Committing fouls and turnovers. It's a good thing UConn always wins the rebounding battle, because it hasn't won the turnover battle in a single game since late-January. The Huskies aren't egregiously turnover-prone, and they actually lost the last game in which they forced more turnovers than they committed. But it's a problem. The propensity for getting a little too handsy on defense can be an issue, too.
MVP: Adama Sanogo. For a while there in November and December, it seemed like Sanogo was destined to become a first-team All-American. But between Connecticut's losing skid and a limited supply of MVP performances, he dropped off the national radar. He's still Connecticut's leader in points and rebounds, though, and he was dynamite in the first two rounds, tallying a combined 52 points, 21 rebounds and two blocks.
Championship Blueprint: Continue being bigger, deeper and stronger than all comers. Connecticut comes at you in waves with a nine-man rotation in which everyone plays a key role. It's not quite "2014-15 Kentucky platoons," but it's close. And for all the talk of "Peak Alabama" being the best team in the country, "Peak Connecticut" stomped Alabama by 15 on a neutral floor.
2. Houston Cougars
15 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 1
How They've Looked: Wounded. Houston certainly played better against Auburn than it did against Northern Kentucky, but Marcus Sasser is nursing a groin injury and Jamal Shead is battling a knee injury. Houston doesn't take the court again until Friday, though, and maybe the six days off between games will be just what the doctor ordered for this backcourt duo. (When Jarace Walker and J'Wan Roberts combine for 11 blocks like they did against Auburn, though, who needs a backcourt?)
Bread and Butter: Elite Defense. Offensive rebounding is also an extreme strength of this title favorite, but the defense is where Houston shines brightest. The Cougars force a lot of turnovers, block a lot of shots and are just generally a colossal nuisance to deal with. Auburn drew a ton of fouls and only committed eight turnovers but still had a miserable time trying to score on Houston.
Achilles' Heel: Perimeter Shooting. For the year, Houston is OK from distance, both taking and making triples at roughly the national average. Dating back to their first game against Memphis in mid-February, though, the Cougars have shot slightly below 30 percent from three-point range in their last 10 games. And missing jumpers sure has been contagious at times for Houston.
MVP: Marcus Sasser. Arguably the most valuable player in the country, Sasser both runs the show on offense (Shead is the point guard, but Sasser is the man) and spearheads this outstanding defense. Between losing the AAC championship to Memphis and not looking right against Northern Kentucky when he was out/limited, there's no denying his value added on the court.
Championship Blueprint: Defend like always and avoid the cold spells. Basically every champion goes through one game where it can't hit the broad side of a barn and needs to grind out a win with defense. Houston might have a couple of those duds on offense, but it does have the defense and the rebounding to make up for it.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
16 of 16
Pre-Tournament Rank: No. 4
How They've Looked: Dominant. While FDU upset Purdue, Northern Kentucky battled Houston and Howard hung with Kansas for 15 minutes, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi never had a chance against Alabama. And though Maryland jumped out to an early seven-point lead, the Crimson Tide quickly rallied and eventually cruised to a fifth consecutive win by double digits.
Bread and Butter: Contesting shots. We often think of Alabama for the star power of Brandon Miller and the up-tempo offense, but did you know the Crimson Tide now lead the nation in defensive effective field-goal percentage? They don't force many turnovers, but they block better than five shots per game and do a fantastic job of running shooters off the three-point arc.
Achilles' Heel: Turnover margin. Alabama is sitting at minus-76 in turnover margin for the season, which is usually a death sentence in the tournament. You don't need an elite turnover-forcing defense to win it all, but it can't be a handicap. Turnover data on Sports-Reference isn't great once you go further back than 2010-11, but I believe 1999-2000 Michigan State was the last team to win it all while posting a negative turnover margin for the year.
MVP: Brandon Miller. The freshman phenom was limited by a groin injury in the first two rounds, but he sure looked fine during that block-triple sequence in the second half against Maryland. He averages 19 points, eight rebounds and two assists per game, shooting nearly 40 percent from distance. And with Zach Edey and Jalen Wilson out of the picture, Miller is maybe the most valuable player left in the dance.
Championship Blueprint: Get the offense going early and often. Dating back to Dec. 20, Alabama is 21-0 when scoring at least 70 points and 1-3 when falling below that mark. The Crimson Tide certainly can win with defense, but this team is way more dangerous in high-scoring affairs.
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