UFC 286 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Edwards vs. Usman 3
Kamaru Usman will attempt to go into hostile territory and take his UFC welterweight title back from Leon Edwards at the O2 Arena in London, England.
Usman was the most dominant welterweight in the world up until the moment that Leon Edwards connected with a high kick that knocked him out in the fifth round of their UFC 278 meeting.
It was shocking revenge for Edwards in a bout that reprised their 2015 matchup. Usman won that one by unanimous decision before either of them were the champions they have since become.
The co-main event is a huge lightweight matchup between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.
It's a strong card that should pique the interest of UFC fans headlined by the rivalry between Usman and Edwards.
Here's a look at the complete card and predictions for the biggest fights.
UFC 286 Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ESPN+ PPV at 5 p.m. ET)
Leon Edwards +200 vs. Kamaru Usman -240
Justin Gaethje +200 vs. Rafael Fiziev -240
Gunnar Nelson -360 vs. Bryan Barberena +295
Jennifer Maia +140 vs. Casey O'Neill -165
Marvin Vettori -275 vs. Roman Dolidze +220
Prelims (ESPNews / ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET)
Jack Shore -500 vs. Makwan Amirkhani +400
Chris Duncan -115 vs. Omar Morales -105
Sam Patterson -280 vs. Yanal Ashmoz +235
Muhammad Mokaev -850 vs. Jafel Filho +600
Early Prelims (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass at 1 p.m. ET)
Lerone Murphy -175vs. Gabriel Santos +150
Christian Leroy Duncan -215 vs. Duško Todorović +185
Malcolm Gordon +320 vs. Jake Hadley -390
Joanne Wood -175 vs. Luana Carolina +150
Jai Herbert +165 vs. Ludovit Klein -195
Juliana Miller -425 vs. Veronica Hardy +350
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Usman Gets His Revenge
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Leon Edwards has to get credit for making it to the fifth round against Usman last time. He also deserves credit for the absolute beauty of a head kick he landed to win the belt.
But there's a reason that Usman was in the lead on all three judges' scorecards. Edwards was fighting admirably, but The Nigerian Nightmare was in control for much of the fight.
That's not likely to change because Edwards landed a great kick. The threat of that strike might make Usman hesitate to some extent, but it's more about him being aware of its threat than changing his game plan.
Usman is still the much better wrestler and will likely lean into that heavily again. He struggled to keep Edwards on the mat in their last fight—his five takedowns only rendered a little over 10-and-a-half minutes of control, per UFC Stats.
If Edwards can continue to create scrambles and get up, then he'll have more time to stun the former champion again.
But that's not necessarily a repeatable path to victory.
Prediction: Usman via fourth-round TKO
Gaethje Stuns Fiziev in Co-Main Event
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Justin Gaethje will enter the co-main event as the underdog to Rafael Fiziev, who enters the fight on a six-fight win streak and hasn't tasted defeat since 2019.
But fans and bettors shouldn't be so quick to write off Justin Gaethje. The Highlight is 1-2 in his last three fights, but those two losses have come against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.
Both are tremendous grapplers, and they both finished Gaethje with submissions. Fiziev is not that kind of fighter. instead, he's going to look to stand with Gaethje and prove he's the better striker.
That's always a risky proposition. Gaethje's combination of volume, leg kicks, power and durability make him a unique challenge on the feet.
In essence, Gaethje has seen plenty of fighters like Fiziev. The inverse is not true. Fiziev will be in the biggest fight of his career to this point, and he might be making a mistake if he thinks standing and trading with Gaethje is a good idea. Sound the upset alarms.
Prediction: Gaethje via decision
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Roman Dolidze Sends Warning to Middleweight Division
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Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson all felt the power of Roman Dolidze in 2022. Now, the Georgian will look to add Marvin Vettori to that list in his first fight of 2023.
Dolidze is not a well-known name in the middleweight division. At 34 years old, he may be running out of time. But there's no denying he's on a heater right now. He has four wins in a row, including the three knockouts mentioned earlier.
The middleweight has generated some buzz with his knockout power recently, but he has a grappling background, too. He's competed in ADCC and was a grappling world champion. So Marvin Vettori's pressure and ability to do some wrestling of his own isn't a definitive advantage.
Vettori has fought some killers recently, so his stock is high despite losses in two of his last three fights.
But this one should be a close bout in which Dolidze will make it known that he's a threat to the middleweight division.
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