Potential Bracket-Busters in First Two Rounds of Men's NCAA Tournament
You don't have to win the first two rounds of your NCAA men's basketball tournament pool, but you do have to survive it.
The tournament's opening weekend can be tricky to navigate. Just ask anyone who had Kentucky or Baylor in their Final Four last year. They were the top two seeds in the East Region, and neither made it to the Sweet 16.
The Wildcats were foiled by a Saint Peter's team that ended up destroying many brackets on its way to the Elite Eight, while Baylor was bounced by an eighth-seeded North Carolina.
Those teams pave the way for the definition of a bracket-buster here. To qualify for this list, a team must have a chance to beat an opponent that is rated four seeds higher. It could be a low-major Cinderella like that Saint Peter's team or it could be the 2022 iteration of North Carolina, which is a traditional blue blood that caught fire at the right time.
Using the projected seeds from Bracket Matrix entering Friday's games, these teams pose a real threat to spoil some brackets in the first two rounds of the men's tournament this year.
Make your picks: Play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge and Tournament Run.
Arkansas Razorbacks
1 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 9
It's hard to gauge what the Razorbacks' ceiling is. On one hand they were a middling SEC team for most of the year with a losing record (8-10) in conference play.
On the other, this is a team that went to the Elite Eight in last year's tournament and has legitimate NBA talent on the roster.
Guards Nick Smith Jr. (sixth overall) and Anthony Black (10th overall) are both lottery picks in Jonathan Wasserman's latest mock draft for Bleacher Report. The problem with looking at Arkansas' resume is that much of it was played without Smith.
Smith was out with a knee injury from mid-December to mid-February. Smith's ability to get a bucket was sorely missed and was evident when he hit the pull-up jumper to give the Razorbacks the final lead in their win over Auburn in the SEC tournament.
Eric Musselman's group is aggressive on defense, which can be a double-edged sword. The Razorbacks force turnovers at a 20.3 percent rate, but they also put teams on the line more than just about anybody with a 38.8 percent free-throw rate defensively, per Bart Torvik.
But if they avoid foul trouble and get big games from Smith and Black, they would give a No. 1 seed trouble in the second round.
Charleston Cougars
2 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 12
It hasn't taken Pat Kelsey long to transform Charleston into a dangerous NCAA tournament team. The former Winthrop head coach took over a Cougars team that was 9-10 in 2020-21 and led it to a school-record 31 wins this season.
The Cougars are balanced. They are 72nd in both of KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.
But it's the relentlessness and pace that the Cougars play with that should have higher seeds worried. Kelsey's group crashes the boards hard with the 17th-highest offensive rebound rate (35.1 percent) in the country, per Bart Torvik.
Their relentless style is made possible by a deep group of players. Nine players average at least 15 minutes per game, and they have five players who average double-digit points.
The big question is how the Cougars will adjust to the quality of competition they will see in the tournament. They are 0-1 in Quad 1 games and just 2-0 in Quad 2.
For now, their ability to stay with a Power Six team is hypothetical. However, their depth, balance and ability to create extra possessions with offensive rebounds bode well.
Northwestern Wildcats
3 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 7
The Northwestern Wildcats might not be the most consistent bunch, but they are dangerous. And identifying bracket-busters is all about how good a team can be on its best day.
For Chris Collins' team, the answer is elite.
The Wildcats have seven Quad 1 wins this year and five of them have come on neutral or road courts. The crown jewel, however, is a win at home against Purdue, the No. 5 team in the latest AP Poll.
The best case for the Wildcats is that they are good at taking care of the ball while forcing turnovers on the other end. They are ranked in the top 30 in turnover rate offensively and defensively, per Bart Torvik.
Some bad performances must be acknowledged. The Wildcats are 7-5 against Q1 teams but have a 4-5 record against Q2. Blowout losses to Iowa and Michigan were examples of what happens when they don't force turnovers and don't hit their threes.
They were 3-of-19 from beyond the arc against the Wolverines and 4-of-17 against Iowa.
They aren't good enough to overcome that kind of bad shooting. They are good enough, however, to beat elite teams when their shots are falling.
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Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
4 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 12
It's not hard to imagine Oral Roberts ruining some brackets in the first two rounds. Paul Mills' squad is just one year removed from a Sweet 16 run in which it eliminated Ohio State and Florida in back-to-back games before a narrow defeat to Arkansas.
This is by far Mills' most accomplished team since taking over at Oral Roberts. They finished the season with 30 wins and a dominant run through the Summit League tournament that included a 92-58 win over North Dakota State in the championship game.
Max Abmas, who led the team in scoring throughout the 2021 tournament run, is back. He's sixth in the nation in scoring and leads a Golden Eagles offense that is 25th in KenPom's offensive efficiency.
The Golden Eagles aren't as impressive on the defensive end, ranking 105th. They do have a unique advantage in 7'5" rim protector Connor Vanover. The Arkansas transfer is averaging 3.3 blocks per contest.
His size alone could help them slow teams down in the paint, and that could be enough for their offense to outscore someone and pull off an early upset.
Toledo Rockets
5 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 13
Experience, three-point shooting and good ball-handling are a dangerous combination when it comes to the tournament.
The Toledo Rockets bring all three to the table.
RayJ Dennis, Setric Millner Jr., Ra'Heim Moss, Dante Maddox Jr. and JT Shumate all have multiple seasons of averaging at least 20 minutes per game. The Rockets are sixth in the nation in KenPom's offensive efficiency anchored by a unit that connects on 40.7 percent of its three-point attempts.
They make the most of their possessions, too. They are fifth in the country in turnover percentage.
The Rockets don't have the kind of experience against good teams you'd like to see. They lost their only contest against a Quad 1 team and are 79th in the NET rankings.
However, their point differential (+9.5) is that of a team that dominated most of its easy schedule, which is a sign of a good team.
There are real concerns that will likely keep the Rockets from making a run beyond the opening weekend. They are nothing special on the boards, ranking 158th in total rebound percentage, per Warren Nolan, and the defense is lackluster.
They rank 280th in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
Still, the Rockets are the kind of team that can score well enough to keep up with anybody at any given time.
Utah State Aggies
6 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 11
Utah State's chemistry on offense is a thing to behold. Soon enough, the Aggies should get the opportunity to do their thing in front of a national audience.
They are 10th in the country in assist rate, per Bart Torvik. They also shoot the ball well from everywhere, ranking sixth in effective field-goal percentage and in the top 40 in two-point percentage, three-point percentage and free-throw percentage.
They aren't a particularly strong rebounding team on the offensive end. They aren't going to create many extra possessions that way. They will, however, keep their opponents from doing so. They are 37th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage.
The Aggies are 1-4 against Quad 1 teams, but they make up for some of that with a 9-1 mark against Quad 2.
If things slow down offensively, the Aggies do have a secret weapon in Taylor Funk. The St. Joseph's transfer scored the team's first 16 points against New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament and has been playing college basketball since 2017.
That kind of veteran leadership and scoring ability can come in handy when the lights are shining brightest during March Madness.
West Virginia Mountaineers
7 of 7
Projected Seed: No. 9
The Mountaineers' record is nothing to get excited about. They finished the year with a 19-14 overall mark, including a 7-11 run in conference play, before getting bounced by Kansas in the second round of the Big 12 tournament.
But going into the NCAA tournament means getting out of the brutal Big 12 schedule. In a conference that is projected to put at least seven teams in the tournament, including four in the top three seed lines, that's an important factor.
The truth is West Virginia does a lot of things that bode well for its chances to be a surprise Sweet 16 team.
Having Bob Huggins on the sideline doesn't hurt. He's only been eliminated in the round of 64 at West Virginia twice in 10 appearances.
Its efficiency profile is what fans should be paying attention to, though. The Mountaineers are 17th overall in KenPom's rankings anchored by a 19th-ranked offense and a defense that is just outside of the top 50 at 52.
According to Bart Torvik, the 10 teams with the most similar efficiency profiles since 2008 have at least advanced to the round of 32 eight times. In five cases, the team went to the Sweet 16 or further.
There's a good chance West Virginia is going to be underseeded based on the rigors of playing a Big 12 schedule. That could spell trouble for one of the tournament's No. 1 seeds in Round 2.
Stats and references to records in Quadrants up to date entering Friday's games.
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