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Super Bowl 2023: Opening Odds for Chiefs vs. Eagles, Top Prop Bets History
January 30, 2023Super Bowl 2023: Opening Odds for Chiefs vs. Eagles, Top Prop Bets History
If oddsmakers are on top of this, Super Bowl LVII could be a championship clash for the ages.
There is no discernible difference between these clubs.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles were each the No. 1 seed in their respective conference. Collectively, they were the NFL's only teams to win 14 games this season.
A matchup as even as this one seems can produce football drama of the highest order. It can also put gamblers in a tough spot, since this really feels like it could go either way.
Still, we'll dig into the latest odds and a few prop bets from DraftKings Sportsbook and see what recent history might reveal about them.
Super Bowl LVII Opening Odds
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
Over/Under: 50
Money Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-130; bet $130 to win $100); Kansas City Chiefs (+110; bet $100 to win $110)
This game opened as a pick'em, but enough money has fallen Philly's way to make the Eagles modest favorites.
That sort of checks out.
The Eagles have shown better balance. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (defense-adjusted value over average), Philly has the league's No. 3 offense and No. 6 defense. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranked first (by a ton) on offense but landed all the way down at No. 17 on defense. Philly has also fared better against the spread, going 10-9 to Kansas City's 7-11-1 mark, per TeamRankings.com.
While each club has some injury issues at quarterback, Kansas City's are most recent. Jalen Hurts is now three games into his return from the shoulder sprain that held him out of Weeks 16 and 17. Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is barely a week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain in the divisional round.
Philadelphia also had the (much) more dominant showing in the conference championships. The Eagles barely broke a sweat in their 31-7 dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers, while the Chiefs needed a last-second field goal to fend off the Cincinnati Bengals by a 23-20 count.
However, some context is needed here. Mahomes' injury was somehow nonexistent in the conference title game. If he was limited, he certainly hid it well, as he threw for 326 yards and two scores. Plus, Philly's lopsided score wasn't quite what it seemed. San Francisco couldn't throw the ball following injuries to Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson, and the 49ers still matched the Eagles in yards per play (3.9).
First TD Scorer
Miles Sanders: +600
Jalen Hurts: +700
Travis Kelce: +750
Isiah Pacheco: +850
A.J. Brown: +950
Dallas Goedert: +1100
Jerick McKinnon: +1100
DeVonta Smith: +1300
Patrick Mahomes: +2800
Something about this prop always draws me in.
Maybe it's that it can be decided so quickly. Maybe it's that it seems like it should somehow be obvious. Whatever the case, this always gets my attention.
If you played this wager in the conference championships, you had a good chance to cash. Miles Sanders opened the scoring in the NFC clash. Travis Kelce got things started in the AFC. Both were touchdown machines in the regular season.
If you want to deep down the list, though, the Eagles receivers immediately stand out as intriguing options.
Kansas City allowed a league-worst 33 passing touchdowns this season. A.J. Brown had 11 touchdown receptions, and DeVonta Smith snagged seven. If the Eagles want to make an early statement, look for them to aggressively attack through the air and potentially connect with one of their top pass-catchers for the first score.
Will Either Team Score 30-Plus Points?
Yes: -140
No: +115
In today's pass-happy NFL, this seems like it should be a gimme.
But that's the beauty of this prop. You never quite know the big stage and bright lights will change things.
Kansas City averaged a league-high 29.2 points this season. Philly landed two spots back with 28.1. All due respect to these defenses, but these combinations of quarterbacks and playmakers have you think that a 30-point half isn't out of the question.
The Eagles have cleared 30 points in both of their playoff games so far, tough their 269 total yards in the conference title game show that wasn't exactly an offensive clinic. Before this stretch, Philly closed the regular season by failing to crack 30 points in three of its final four contests. And the lone exception in that stretch was a game quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have produced point totals of 27 and 23 this postseason. They reached 30 points in four of their last 10 regular-season contests, one of which was an overtime win over the Houston Texans in which Kansas City had 24 points at the end of regulation. The Chiefs could pop for 30-plus points at any time, but they haven't exactly reeled off a bunch of them lately.
Recent history is pretty divided on this wager. Neither the Rams nor the Bengals reached 30 points in Super Bowl LVI. But Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers did the year prior, and these very same Chiefs did the year before that. Neither club hit the mark in Super Bowl LIII, but both teams (including the victorious Eagles) did in Super Bowl LII.
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