Picking Long-Shot Dark Horses for Major MLB Awards in 2023
Major League Baseball figures to be in something of a news vacuum between now and the start of spring training in February, so what's say we pass the time with some awards race ponderings.
Specifically, about which players might pull a Justin Morneau, a Robbie Ray or a Devin Williams and come from out of nowhere to contend for the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in the American League and National League.
Look, we won't lie. This is mostly an excuse to talk about players we otherwise don't get many excuses to talk about, and yet who deserve attention on account of being A) fun, B) interesting and C) potentially really good.
We tabbed six who could even be good enough to contend for the aforementioned hardware in 2023, for reasons that we're going to explain in detail. For the sake of being just a little more thorough, we also tabbed one honorable mention for each award.
AL Rookie of the Year: CF Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics
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The rookie record for stolen bases is 110, set by Vince Coleman back in 1985. Nobody's going to beat that in 2023—or ever, most likely—but Esteury Ruiz has more right than most to be eyeing it.
Ruiz, who turns 24 on Feb. 15, may not have a recognizable name, but he does come associated with a big number: 85. That's how many bases he stole in 114 minor league games last year, which is...[checks notes]...a lot.
Ruiz stole that many bases in part because, per MLB.com, he has legitimate 80-grade speed. But it also helped that larger bases, a pitch clock and limits on pickoff throws contributed to an overall rise in stolen base attempts in the minors last year. That should also hold true of those things and their major league debuts, which naturally bodes well for Ruiz.
Ruiz's hit tool generally doesn't grade out as well, but those reports clash a bit with the fact that he slashed .332/.447/.526 at Double-A and Triple-A last year, with walk and strikeout rates of 12.2 and 17.4, respectively. That at least hints at the possibility that he can avoid the Billy Hamilton curse of not being able to get on base enough to make use of his speed.
As for his power, Ruiz has enough in reality to hit 16 home runs in the minors in 2022 and enough in theory to earn comps to Alfonso Soriano:
Though nothing is set in stone just yet, Ruiz seems slated to start in center field for the A's on Opening Day. He thus has the goods and the window to trump better-known prospects like Gunnar Henderson, Triston Casas and Hunter Brown for the AL Rookie of the Year.
Honorable Mention: C Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
All O'Hoppe did in 2022 was hit .283/.416/.544 with 26 home runs in 104 games at Double-A. Whether he can translate that performance to the majors without further fine-tuning at Triple-A is a good question, but the Angels seem likely to give him a shot anyway.
NL Rookie of the Year: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
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So obvious is Corbin Carroll's candidacy for the NL Rookie of the Year that two-thirds of the executives polled by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo tabbed him as the guy to beat for the award.
But before anyone can say "You'd have to be crazy to pick any other Arizona Diamondbacks prospect," here's a crazy idea: What if Brandon Pfaadt is actually the desert-dweller to beat for the NL Rookie of the Year?
There wasn't much fanfare when Arizona drafted Pfaadt out of Bellarmine University in the fifth round of the 2020 draft, but the right-hander has since put himself squarely on the radar with lights-out pitching. In making the journey from Single-A at the outset of 2021 to Triple-A by the end of 2022, he's racked up a 3.56 ERA and 378 strikeouts against only 61 walks. The latter two figures speak to what MLB executives see as his best tool: pitchability.
Not to be glossed over, though, is that the 24-year-old Pfaadt's (pronounced "fought," for the record) stuff is filthy. He operates in the low-to-mid 90s with his four-seamer and sinker, with a changeup and a curveball that are both usable and a slider that's more like plus.
To put it more succinctly about Pfaadt: He's a dude with five pitches and the know-how for how to use them.
Especially if he has a strong spring, the Diamondbacks may have a hard time denying Pfaadt a spot in their Opening Day rotation. From there, he could ultimately beat out not just Carroll, but also the New York Mets' No. 1 prospect, Francisco Álvarez, for the NL Rookie of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Matt Mervis, Chicago Cubs
Eric Hosmer looks like a mere stopgap at first base for the Cubs, and not just because he's, you know, Eric Hosmer. They have every reason to keep the position warm for Mervis, who spent 2022 hitting 36 home runs in the minors plus another six in the Arizona Fall League.
AL Cy Young Award: RHP George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
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Randy Johnson and Félix Hernández are the only two Cy Young Award winners in the history of the Seattle Mariners, so any pitcher who would join them clearly has good taste for which company to keep.
Bully for them that they have a few candidates for the task this year, including past winner Robbie Ray, relative newcomer Luis Castillo, up-and-comer Logan Gilbert and another up-and-comer who obviously gets our vote: George Kirby.
The 24-year-old was plenty good as a rookie in 2022, making 25 starts and pitching to a 3.39 ERA with 133 strikeouts against only 22 walks over 130 innings. That's all good stuff, and ditto for the minus-18 run value attached to his four-seam fastball. That was Castillo, Max Scherzer and Cristian Javier territory last year.
But enough about that. The pitch that really matters for Kirby is this one:
That slider is nasty. So nasty, in fact, that it's kind of shocking he didn't even start throwing it until he made his 13th start on July 26. But no matter. There was no going back after that, as he pitched to a 3.02 ERA and, even better, a 1.88 FIP the rest of the way.
We say "even better" for two reasons. For one, FIP cuts through a fair deal of things pitchers can't control by focusing on strikeouts, walks and home runs. And for two, that 1.88 mark literally led all of MLB after July 26.
Kirby will have to stay healthy, of course. But if he can, he could beat out even the likes of Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani to win the AL Cy Young Award in 2023.
Honorable Mention: Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Hey, speaking of Javier, he pitched to a 2.25 ERA over his final 104 innings of the regular season and then allowed only one hit against 14 strikeouts in the two starts he made in the playoffs. One of those saw him spearhead a combined no-hitter, which was both a second for the World Series all-time and a second for him personally.
NL Cy Young Award: LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
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Clayton Kershaw and his left arm won the NL Cy Young Award three times between 2011 and 2014, but since then the award has been won exclusively by right-handers. Per the law of averages, that can't last forever.
Safe bets to end the streak in 2023 include Max Fried and Julio Urías. But, yeah, we really are about to stump for a 24-year-old who's made all of 19 starts in the majors and who pitches his home games in a backyard-sized stadium.
Nick Lodolo's experience as a rookie was hit-or-miss. Hit-wise, he pitched to a solid 3.66 ERA over 19 starts. Miss-wise, he was sidelined for a while with a back injury and struggled with control in handing out 39 walks and an MLB-high 19 hit-by-pitches over just 103.1 innings.
Lodolo's stuff, however, is worth dreaming on. Start with his breaking ball, which looks like he traveled back in time and stole it off Andrew Miller:
As Justin Choi of FanGraphs highlighted, Lodolo's breaking ball suddenly gained more horizontal action starting on Aug. 6, 2022. This was after he had already started an experiment with his fastball mix, throwing fewer sinkers and more four-seamers.
Things eventually came together so well for Lodolo that opposing hitters hit just .127 against his four-seamer and .103 against his breaking ball over his last nine starts. In those, he struck out 67 and allowed only 35 hits.
As for whether Lodolo can really continue to survive on just two pitches, hey, it's worked for Carlos Rodón the last two years and even Kershaw was basically a two-pitch guy at his pinnacle.
Honorable Mention: RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
One might think we're drinking Reds Kool Aid, but Greene also finished last year on a tear in allowing just two earned runs while whiffing 37 batters over his final four starts. His fastball already had loads of velocity and then some (and then some more), but he seemed to alter its shape for the better just in time to go out on a high note.
AL MVP: 1B Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
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If any Texas Ranger is going to become the club's first AL MVP winner since Josh Hamilton in 2010, it'll probably be Corey Seager. Or maybe even Marcus Semien, who actually lived up to his track record as an MVP contender after getting off to a brutal start in 2022.
So why Nathaniel Lowe? Well, why not Nathaniel Lowe?
He was an interesting hitter even before 2022, but it wasn't until the latter half of the season that he made the leap to good. Heck, he was so good that he made the AL leaderboard for wRC+ after the All-Star break look like this:
- Aaron Judge: 251
- Nathaniel Lowe: 176
- José Altuve: 175
- Yordan Álvarez: 170
There was Lowe, sandwiched in between two MVPs and ahead of a guy who basically single-handedly won three playoff games last October.
As for what begat this transformation, Lowe effectively shrugged in explaining it as "committing to better pitches" when he spoke to Levi Weaver of The Athletic last August. But Davy Andrews of FanGraphs found that there actually is a statistical basis for that, and the extent to which Lowe's contact quality benefited isn't subtle. His hard-hit rate jumped from 40.4 percent in the first half to 50.0 percent in the second.
The catch with Lowe is that his defense can be adequately summarized as "not great," but that barely mattered in 2022 and it won't matter at all in 2023 if he picks up where he left off. At best, he'll hit well enough to challenge even Judge, Álvarez and Ohtani for the AL MVP.
Honorable Mention: LF Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels
While we're slicing up guys' 2022 seasons looking for MVP clues, who else remembers when Ward started last year off with a 1.194 OPS and nine homers through 30 games. That didn't last, but perhaps only because he played through a bum shoulder for the remainder of the year. With better health in 2023, perhaps he'll get back on track and stay there.
NL MVP: CF Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
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Giancarlo Stanton is the only MVP the Miami Marlins have had in 30 years. If Jazz Chisholm Jr. is going to make it two in 31 years, he'll have to address some lingering doubts.
That he's past the injuries that stopped his 2022 season after 60 games, for one, and also that he's capable of making a smooth transition from second base to center field. But nobody ever accused the guy of lacking confidence, so go figure that he purportedly texted manager Skip Schumaker that he was ready to "go out there and win Gold Gloves."
His elite sprint speed can only help there, though probably not as much as it'll help him on the basepaths. He's stolen 37 bases in 205 games even without the new stolen base-friendly rules, so predicting that he'll commit base theft even more frequently in 2023 is a layup.
Of course, the only thing better than speed is speed and power. To the latter, Chisholm owns 34 home runs and he's only made forward progress with his exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Better yet, Chisholm became dangerous against the right pitches in 2022. His run values against four-seamers and sliders, the two most oft-used pitches in MLB today, were at plus-10 and plus-nine. The only other players to hit both marks were Judge, Álvarez, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Rhys Hoskins.
If all goes well for Chisholm in 2023, we're talking plus center field defense and a 30-30 season offensively. Even if such things don't boost the Marlins into contention, voters for the NL MVP might nonetheless find themselves convinced.
Honorable Mention: SS Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
If anything, Cruz is too obvious to deserve to be a "dark horse" for the NL MVP award. But, well, some things just can't be helped. In this case, it's hard not to think that big things are possible for a 6'7", 220-pound shortstop with video game tools and who was last seen cutting his strikeout rate way down.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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