Early Contract Predictions for Upcoming NHL Restricted Free Agents
For the first time since 2019, the NHL's annual free-agent period begins at noon ET on July 1. Hockey fans and pundits will be focused on the potential destinations of the unrestricted free agents (UFAs). At the same time, the negotiations involving notable restricted free agent (RFA) players could also garner headlines.
Like UFAs, restricted free agents can re-sign with their current teams between now and July 1. The difference is the rights of RFA players remain with their current teams beyond July 1 unless they're traded or their clubs decline to re-sign them. RFAs have until 5 pm ET on Dec. 1 to sign new contracts or become ineligible to play in the NHL for the remainder of the season.
Some, such as Montreal Canadiens winger Cole Caufield, are completing their entry-level contracts. Others, like the New Jersey Devils' Jesper Bratt, are coming off their second or third contracts and have arbitration rights.
Here are our predictions for what the top 10 NHL RFAs will receive for their next contracts. We'll examine their current deals, how much we anticipate they're entitled to, and for how long. As always, you can express your thoughts about this topic in the comments section below.
Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils
1 of 9
With a team-leading 73 points in 76 games last season, Jesper Bratt seemed in line for a significant raise on a long-term deal coming off a breakout campaign. Instead, he and the New Jersey Devils agreed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract.
In a Nov. 23 interview with The Fourth Period's James Nichols, Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald indicated contract talks had begun with Bratt. Nichols indicated Fitzgerald made several attempts with different structured offers to keep the 24-year-old winger in New Jersey on an eight-year deal before reaching an agreement on the one-year contract.
On Dec. 29, NJ.com's Ryan Novozinsky reported Bratt remained committed to inking a long-term extension with the Devils. Sitting second among Devils scorers this season with 46 points in as many games, he's proven to be an invaluable part of the club's development into a playoff contender.
There's no indication if Fitzgerald is making progress in his contract discussions with the Bratt camp. The playmaking winger is going to get a substantial raise on a long-term deal. How much and for how long remains to be determined.
Prediction
Bratt agrees to an eight-year deal worth $8.5 million per season with the Devils.
Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens
2 of 9
Over the past two years, the Montreal Canadiens have endured a roller coaster of highs (reaching the 2021 Stanley Cup Final) and lows (finishing dead last in 2021-22). During that time, diminutive winger Cole Caufield emerged as a rising offensive star.
After finishing third among Canadiens scorers with 12 points in 20 games in the 2021 playoffs, the rookie Caufield overcome a poor first half to finish last season with a team-leading 23 goals in 67 games.
Leading the Canadiens with 26 goals in 46 games, the 5'7", 174-pound left winger was on pace to perhaps become the first Hab to score 50 goals in a season since Stephan Richer in 1989-90. Unfortunately, his season came to an end as he will undergo shoulder surgery.
Despite the ups and downs in his short NHL career, Caufield has displayed the ability to become an elite scoring star for the Canadiens. The 22-year-old is in the final season of his entry-level contract and lacks arbitration rights. Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes is hopeful of inking Caufield to a long-term extension.
Prediction
Despite his season-ending surgery, expect Caufield to sign an eight-year deal worth $8 million per season.
Dylan Cozens, Buffalo Sabres
3 of 9
The Buffalo Sabres are within reach of a playoff berth for the first time since 2010-11. Among the reasons behind their improvement is the play of Dylan Cozens.
Now in his third NHL season, Cozens sits fifth among Sabres scorers with 16 goals and 42 points in 46 games. The 22-year-old has already exceeded his previous career-highs of 13 goals and 38 points last season and could reach 30 goals and 70 points by the end of this season.
Centering the Sabres' second line alongside JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn, the 6'3", 195-pound Cozens is in the final season of his entry-level contract and lacks arbitration rights. Given his steady development as a two-way forward, he should be in line for a big pay raise.
On Jan. 21, Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reported Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams will want to sign Cozens to a long-term contract like the one that Tage Thompson signed last summer. The 25-year-old Thompson agreed to a seven-year extension worth $7.2 million annually after scoring 38 goals and 68 points last season.
Prediction
Adams signs Cozens to a seven-year deal worth $7 million annually, keeping his cap a bit below that of leading scorer Thompson.
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Alex DeBrincat, Ottawa Senators
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Acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks last summer, Alex DeBrincat was coming off his second 41-goal performance in his five NHL seasons. Following a brief adjustment with his new team, the 25-year-old winger sits among the Ottawa Senators' leading scorers with 15 goals and 39 points in 46 games.
The 5'8", 178-pound DeBrincat has proven that size is no detriment to becoming a reliable NHL scorer. At his current rate of production, he could reach 30 goals and 70 points by season's end. His production is down a bit compared to his final season in Chicago but that's due to seeing second-line minutes and losing center Josh Norris to a shoulder injury.
DeBrincat is completing a three-year contract with an average annual value of $6.4 million but his actual salary for this season is $9 million. That's how much it'll cost the Senators to qualify his rights before July 1 unless he and general manager Pierre Dorion can agree to a new contract before then.
On Dec. 29, the Ottawa Sun's Ken Warren speculated DeBrincat could receive between $8 million and $9 million annually on a long-term contract. With a projected $16.3 million in salary-cap space for 2023-24, the Senators can afford to retain him. However, it could force them to shed some salary elsewhere to fill out the remainder of their roster.
Prediction
The Senators reach an agreement with DeBrincat on an eight-year deal worth $8.5 million annually. He'll become the club's highest-paid player, earning just above captain Brady Tkachuk's $8.25 million.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winnipeg Jets
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A restricted free agent with arbitration rights last summer, Dubois became the subject of trade speculation linking him to the Montreal Canadiens before inking a one-year, $6 million qualifying offer with the Winnipeg Jets. He dismissed the chatter, insisting he never requested a trade and had no intention of doing so.
Slated once again for RFA status with arbitration rights, the 24-year-old Dubois is on pace for his best NHL season yet. With 50 points in 48 games, he's third among Jets scorers. He could reach 35 goals and 85 points.
The 6'2", 205-pound Dubois has become an important core player on the Jets as they jockey for first place in the Western Conference. He continues to downplay speculation that he could join the Canadiens as an unrestricted free agent in 2024. Head coach Rick Bowness remains hopeful he'll remain in Winnipeg for a long time.
Dubois will be in line for a substantial raise on a long-term deal. The Jets wanted to sign him to a lengthy deal last summer but he preferred the one-year deal to see how this season pans out. He could prefer something shorter than seven or eight years that would still allow him the option of testing the UFA market while still in his playing prime.
Prediction
The Jets open the vault to keep Dubois in Winnipeg this summer as they agree to a five-year deal worth an average annual value of $9 million.
Vince Dunn, Seattle Kraken
6 of 9
Having had short-term contracts throughout his six-season NHL career, Vince Dunn will seek a lengthier deal as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. The 26-year-old defenseman is also a year away from unrestricted free-agent eligibility.
Dunn is in the final season of a two-year contract worth an annual salary-cap hit of $4 million. He's the highest-scoring defenseman among the Kraken this season with 34 points in 46 games as well as the leading scorer among this year's class of RFA blueliners. Dunn is already poised to exceed his previous career-best of 35 points in a season.
Skating on the Kraken's top defense pairing, Dunn is second in time on ice per game (23:51) including a team-leading 2:42 of power-play ice time per game. At his current rate of production, he could reach 50 points by season's end. Dunn is also among the team leaders with 31 takeaways and 51 blocked shots.
Dunn's chemistry with Adam Larsson provides the Kraken with a reliable first-defense pairing. General manager Ron Francis will want to ensure that it remains intact for the long term
Prediction
The Kraken will make Dunn their highest-paid player for next season by signing him to a seven-year deal worth $7 million per season.
Timo Meier, San Jose Sharks
7 of 9
A restricted free agent with arbitration rights on July 1, Timo Meier is in the final season of a four-year contract with an average salary-cap hit of $6 million. However, the 26-year-old winger is earning an actual salary this season of $10 million, which is what it'll cost the San Jose Sharks to qualify his rights.
Meier and the Sharks could avoid that by agreeing to a new contract before July 1. However, his future in San Jose is uncertain as he's become the subject of trade speculation. On Jan. 21, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman expressed his belief that the Sharks will allow interested teams to speak with the Meier camp about a contract extension.
A talented offensive winger, Meier is second among Sharks scorers with 47 points in 48 games. He was on a similar pace last season with a career-high 76 points in 77 games. Given his offensive skills, he should attract plenty of interest in the trade market.
If Meier is traded by the March 3 trade deadline, there is no certainty he'll re-sign with his new club before July 1. That $10 million qualifying offer could prove too rich for most teams to pay out, which could turn him into simply a playoff rental player for this season.
Prediction
Meier is traded to the New York Rangers at the trade deadline. He finishes this season in New York and hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent on July 1, where he will seek a seven-year contract worth between $9 million and $10 million annually.
K'Andre Miller, New York Rangers
8 of 9
In just his third NHL season, K'Andre Miller is blossoming into a solid top-four defenseman with the New York Rangers. Skating alongside Jacob Trouba on the second pairing, the 23-year-old had already exceeded his 20-point performance in 82 games last season with 25 points in 47 games thus far this season.
The 6'5", 215-pound Miller is also a solid defensive presence, sitting among the Rangers' top five with 96 hits, 57 blocked shots and 36 takeaways. His point production, meanwhile, puts him second among this year's RFA blueliners. He's also second among the Rangers in time on ice per game (22:16).
Miller is in the final season of his entry-level contract and lacks arbitration rights. While he's benefitted from playing alongside the experienced Trouba, he has the potential to become a top-pairing defenseman.
The Rangers have $16 million in projected cap space for 2023-24 with RFA forwards Alexis Lafreniere and Filip Chytil also to re-sign. Of that group, the case can be made that Miller is the most deserving of a significant pay raise.
Prediction
The Rangers re-sign Miller to a seven-year contract worth $7 million per season.
Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, Anaheim Ducks
9 of 9
Fans of the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks haven't had much to cheer about since last season. However, the play of winger Troy Terry and center Trevor Zegras provides them with some hope that better days are on the horizon. Both are invaluable foundation pieces for the Ducks.
A six-season NHL veteran, Terry enjoyed a breakout performance in 2021-22 with a team-leading 37 goals and 67 points in 75 games. That performance was no fluke as the 25-year-old winger has 12 goals and 26 assists for 38 points in 47 games to sit second among Ducks scorers. He's within range of finishing with 25 goals and 65 points.
Zegras, 21, is in his third NHL campaign. A gifted center with terrific offensive skills, he was a finalist last season for the Calder Memorial Trophy after finishing second among rookie scorers with 61 points. Leading the Ducks this season with 40 points in 47 games, Zegras could finish with 70 points by season's end.
Terry is in the final season of a three-year contract and has arbitration rights. He'll be seeking a big pay bump over his current annual cap hit of $1.5 million. Zegras, meanwhile, is in the last season of his entry-level contract and is also in line for a substantial raise. Last September, Ducks GM Pat Verbeek said he'd talk contract with them following this season.
Prediction
Terry gets a six-year contract worth an average annual value of $7 million. Zegras, meanwhile, receives an eight-year deal with an annual salary-cap hit of $8 million.
Stats (as of Jan. 23, 2023) via NHL.com with salary info via Cap Friendly.
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