The Toughest MLB Free-Agent Decisions Entering the New Year
The end of 2022 will not mark the end of the line for Major League Baseball's free-agent market, and don't think there's no intrigue left just because all the big stars are spoken for.
For instance, consider the dilemmas.
Both players and teams will have to make difficult choices when 2023 arrives. Where to play for a couple of notable of the former, while the latter will have to weigh how much certain players are worth and how much they're willing to spend.
We have eight to get to, starting with the players.
Where Will Evan Longoria Continue His Career?
1 of 8
Atop the leaderboard for service time among free-agent hitters is where you'll find Nelson Cruz and Robinson Canó, though neither seems to be in demand. Both are north of 40 years old and coming off forgettable seasons.
And then there's Evan Longoria.
He's 37 and well removed from his prime as a two-way superstar for the Tampa Bay Rays. Yet he still hit well for the San Francisco Giants over the last two seasons, putting up a 119 OPS+ and 27 home runs in 170 games.
Rather than call it a career, the three-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove Award winner reportedly would like one more chance to win a World Series ring:
That conceivably rules out a return to the Giants, who don't look like much of a threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres after Carlos Correa escaped their grasp. Despite their apparent interest, the Arizona Diamondbacks aren't right for Longoria either.
Then again, there's always the possibility that no contenders come calling with a role as a full-time player or even as a platoon option. In that case, Longoria might have to take a chance on a long shot for the '23 World Series.
Where Will Zack Greinke Continue His Career?
2 of 8
If there's a pitching equivalent to Longoria on the free-agent market, it's surely none other than Zack Greinke.
The 39-year-old has just about done it all since he broke into the majors back in 2004. He's won the American League Cy Young Award. He's collected six All-Star nods. He's won both Gold Gloves and Sliver Sluggers. And he's pitched in two World Series.
Like Longoria, however, Greinke has yet to win a ring.
As he's 25th among starting pitchers on the all-time JAWS list, Greinke doesn't necessarily need one to be worthy of Cooperstown. It's a thing worth rooting for, of course, but whether he cares about what other people care about is always a good question.
It therefore wouldn't be surprising if Greinke takes up the Kansas City Royals on their interest in bringing him back following their reunion in 2022. But there's bound to be overtures from other teams after he pitched to a 111 ERA+, which would give him with the opportunity to opt for something other than the familiar.
What Is Jurickson Profar Worth?
3 of 8
The market may be picked clean of stars, but any team in need of a switch-hitting, multiple position-playing Swiss Army knife of a player can still consider Jurickson Profar.
But at what price?
The 29-year-old was generally expected to command a multiyear deal at eight figures per at the outset of the offseason. And that was before free agents started beating expectations left and right, as teams have run up a $3.6 billion spending bill.
It perhaps figures that Profar would be the next to land higher on the pay scale than anticipated. But the same was hypothetically also true of Brandon Drury, and he didn't beat expectations in signing a two-year, $17 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
It wouldn't be the biggest shock if the market forces Profar into a similar fate. Because while he is coming off a solid season with the Padres, said season accounts for about half of his career rWAR. It could prove to be an outlier, not a sign of things to come.
.png?w=256)
What Is Jean Segura Worth?
4 of 8
Apart from than Profar, the best position player still standing on the open market is Jean Segura.
Next year will mark his age-33 campaign, and he already isn't much for power and speed, but the two-time All-Star still has things to offer. He's an efficient contact hitter and plays a good second base, the latter of which ought to have more appeal as baseball prepares to enter the post-shift era.
But while these qualities hypothetically make Segura deserving of a multiyear deal, teams in need of his services can justifiably ask, "But do they, really?"
After all, Segura's general profile is similar to that of fellow All-Star Adam Frazier, who got only a one-year, $8 million deal from the Baltimore Orioles. Teams can look at that and wonder if Segura should likewise sign for a below-market deal.
Segura and his camp are sure to resist and hold out if this proves to be the case, but it may not work in his favor that the start of spring training is around the corner.
What Is Nathan Eovaldi Worth?
5 of 8
After Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón, the best starter on this year's market was arguably always Nathan Eovaldi. And unlike them, he is still out there.
If that is because teams are wary of signing him, well, fair enough.
Even at 32 years old, Eovaldi should be in line for a multiyear deal worth eight figures per. Maybe not Chris Bassitt money (three years, $63 million), but surely at least José Quintana money (two years, $26 million).
Yet there's more than one complicating factor for Eovaldi, starting with the fact that his 2022 season didn't end on a high note. He made just eight starts after June 8 because of back and shoulder/neck injuries, and his trademark fastball velocity was way down.
There are also Eovaldi's ties to draft-pick compensation by way of his rejection of a qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox. He's therefore a high-risk, high-reward target with a steep acquisition cost, which makes it worth watching whether he or a pitching-needy team will blink first.
How Can the Red Sox and Giants Dull the Pain of Huge Losses?
6 of 8
Of all the big losers of the offseason, none stood out more than the Red Sox—until recently.
Boston did, after all, want to keep Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. Its fatal mistake was not translating that desire into a suitable offer, which gave him little choice but to accept a substantially better one from the Padres.
That "until recently" caveat is necessary, however, because the Giants landed squarely in the same boat as the Red Sox when their own shortstop plans blew up four days before Christmas. Correa was their guy for about a week. Now he's the New York Mets' guy.
That's assuming the Mets and Correa work around the same issues that the Giants raised with the star's physical, but there doesn't seem to be much doubt they will.
As soon as Correa is no longer a free agent, Boston and San Francisco will be left standing with similarly sized holes at shortstop and similarly flawed rosters. And with the open market devoid of impact additions, both teams may have to turn to the trade market to salvage their winters.
Will Seattle and Atlanta Continue to Stand Pat?
7 of 8
The list of teams that have spent the least in free agency is an interesting one.
The Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers have spent nothing? That tracks. But then there's Atlanta and the Seattle Mariners with a combined investment of just $3.5 million, which does not.
Even though the Mariners did well in trades for Teoscar Hernández and Kolten Wong, it seems like just yesterday that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto was hinting at a run at one of the open market's big shortstops.
Atlanta, meanwhile, apparently never made much of an effort to keep Dansby Swanson around before he landed on the North Side of Chicago. Though it's been active on the trade market—notably acquiring Sean Murphy—that's arguably the defining act of its offseason.
At this point, Seattle and Atlanta don't have much choice but to try to improve on the margins. Should they continue standing pat in free agency instead, it will be reasonable to ask whether they did enough to keep up in the American League West and National League East.
How Much More Can the Dodgers Spend?
8 of 8
Even if theirs hasn't exactly been the worst, nobody has had a weirder offseason than the Los Angeles Dodgers.
After they won 111 regular-season games only to get bounced from the first round of the playoffs, the Dodgers figured to be out for vengeance. To that end, it surely helped that they had a ton of salary set to come off the books.
It's therefore weird to see the Dodgers sitting there with just $44.5 million in free-agent deals to show for their offseason. Rather than a team on a rampage, they have operated a lot more like a team that's spooked of the luxury tax.
The latest twist on that front is the reinstatement of 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer. That put his salary back on the books, which in turn has the Dodgers $100,875 shy of the $233 million luxury-tax threshold for next year.
That perhaps doesn't necessarily mean they have no more moves to make. But if they don't do anything, they will owe it to their fans to make that rumored run at Shohei Ohtani next offseason.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
