NBA Opening Week: Observations, Oddities and Statistical Anomalies

Only on Christmas Day could halftime of Celtics-Knicks morph into a second-quarter LeBron James sighting.  (Who do you suppose turned the channel?)

NBA Opening Day on Christmas doesn’t quite work for one as old as the Abacus.

Don’t misunderstand.  He was able to sample a morsel or three from all five games that day.

But some other sampling, and a soft couch, slightly hindered his attention span for a while.

Nonetheless, and in large part due to the nice folks at NBA League Pass and their Free-per-view—there’s another week’s worth of free games, y’all—pro basketball in all its fame and glory found its way into this humble abode.

So, without any further ado, Abacus Reveals his off-beat observations and opinions from the NBA’s first seven days of play.

Back-to-Back-to-Backs

The Los Angeles Lakers’ journey into NBA 2011-12 has been fraught with the unexpected—a new coach replacing a legend; the acquisition of a stud nixed by the league office (or was it the team owner?) and consequent trade/give-away of their sixth man; and a disappointing Christmas Day loss in which they outplayed a title contender even without their suspended starting center.

They limped home winless on Tuesday to play their third game in as many nights against a team making its season debut.  No brainer, huh…bet the rent money?

Not so fast, Diamond Jim.

Coach Mike Brown’s troops put together their most efficient game of the week both offensively and defensively.  The Lakers committed just nine turnovers and got to the free-throw line 37 times, more than doubling Utah’s attempts.  They were successful on 55 percent of their possessions (48 of 87) while earning stops at a gaudy 59 percent (53 of 90).  The Jazz helped out some by shooting a mere 32 percent on its field goals, including a putrid one for 13 on treys in the 96-71 trouncing.

The only other team to complete a three-fer during the opening week was the Houston Rockets, who managed to secure two home victories over teams who’d played the night before.  Between those two performances the Rockets, though apparently not their game, took a day trip to Memphis.

This week’s three-fers: Denver (yesterday through tomorrow), Sacramento (Tuesday through Thursday), Atlanta (Thursday through Saturday) and Oklahoma City (Friday through next Sunday).

Offensive Offensive Rebounding (and That’s Not Double-Talk)

Through their first three games, the New York Knicks had misfired on 127 field-goal attempts.  They amassed a total of 21 offensive rebounds in those very games, a paltry .165 rate of exchange.  Wednesday against Golden State, New York missed 42 shots and managed just four get-backs.  That’s atrocious.

Then they played the season’s most prolific offensive rebounding unit, whose 6’6’’ center had failed a physical and seen his lucrative free-agent contract voided during the run-up to season.

The Sacramento Kings are one of only two teams (the other being the New Orleans/NBA’s Hornets) whose offensive rebounding percentage (that is, the ratio of offensive rebounds to missed field goal attempts) has been .250 or better in every game.  That means that they retain possession of the ball at least once for every four misses—for the Knicks, that ratio is an unimpressive one in six.

So, what happened New Year’s Eve in California’s capital?

The Amare Stoudemire-less Knicks’ shooting was much better than it had been since opening night against Boston, especially from three-point land, and rookie Josh Harrellson led the charge to 17 extended possessions and 43 boards overall.

The Kings, however, behind Chuck Hayes and second-year postman DeMarcus Cousins, corralled 51 rebounds, 22 off the offensive glass.  Indeed, their .393 offensive rebounding percentage is the best among all 56 NBA games played last week.

Alas, the Kings lost 114-92 to the Knicks, falling to 1-3 on the season.  After all, you gotta miss a lot of shots, 56 in this case, to create so many offensive rebounds, right?

Efficiency Experts

Since the elimination of the center jump after every score, basketball has been a sport of alternating possessions—after you score, your opponent gets the ball.

This equitable distribution of scoring opportunity, in one regard, makes basketball a rather simple strategic undertaking.  Take advantage of your scoring opportunities, make it as tough as you can for the other team to do the same, and you should win.

Two games from last Friday’s slate serve as prime examples:

First, at Milwaukee, the Washington Wizards shot 30-85 from the floor—that’s 55 misses.  Offensive rebounds balance out nine of those misfires, but that still leaves 46 empty possessions.  Add in 14 Wizard turnovers, and the Bucks earned 60 “stops” in 99 possessions.  Milwaukee played its “D” at a 60.4 percent rate of efficiency while cruising to a 21-point blowout.

At the Staples Center against the Clippers, the Chicago Bulls matched their division rival’s rate of efficiency (ironically, also 60.4 percent), but their achievement was at the offensive end of the floor. They shot 39-78, hustled their way to 15 offensive rebounds, and committed just 12 turnovers—a mere 36 empty possessions in their 91.  CP3’s new squad had to play at over 55 percent offensive efficiency in order to lose by only 13.

How uncommon are these “60 Percent” games?  In last year’s playoffs, no team reached that barrier in its defensive efficiency, while offense clicked that well only three times, twice by the surprising Memphis Grizzlies, once by Mr. Paul’s former team.

Numbers, Numbers and More Numbers (What Do You Expect from an Abacus?)

Consistency of performance is a coveted quality in the athletic arena.

But how likely is it for a team’s percentage of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency for a game to be identical?  It happened just once in 81 playoff games last spring.

Last Wednesday, however, in weathering the Charlotte Bobcats’ spirited challenge, the talents from South Beach executed a 51 percent rate of efficiency at both ends of the floor compared to the Bobcats’ 49 percent while eking out a one-point decision.

Oddly, that same statistical game had been played two nights earlier in Washington.  The Wizards played the part of the 51 percent team, but New Jersey turned logic on its ear by stealing a 90-84 victory in both teams’ openers.

How does such a thing happen?  Well, 13 missed free throws in 34 opportunities thwarts a fair bit of effective offensive execution it seems.

Washington spitting away its opener was not the most egregious malfeasance of numerical logic on an NBA floor this week.  Christmas Day’s offerings included two games in which the more statistically efficient team lost.

The Knicks were able to “stop” only 42 of Boston’s 96 possessions, a .437 rate of defensive efficiency.  Boston defended at an even 48 percent (47 stops in 98 possessions), but fell 106-104 due to a nine-to-two Knick edge in three-point field goals.

Later that day, in a more proficient defensive display, the Lakers were successful in stopping 54.3 percent of Chicago possessions, compared to 49.5 percent stoppage by the Bulls, but were undone by nine missed foul shots and beaten at the buzzer by last season’s MVP.

Both the Bulls and the Oklahoma City Thunder won twice when they numbered out as the less efficient team, and the phenomenon occurred nine times in the week’s 56 games.

Numbers Never * Lie?  Whatchu talkin’ ‘bout, ESPN?

A Fast Pace

The adjustment on the part of the Miami Heat to play a more up-tempo style has generated opinion aplenty among basketball pundits, but LeBron and company are not the only NBAers pushing the pace of play in our funky young season.  No one seems to be noticing because the others are stationed west of the Mississippi and out of the media’s eye.  (Abacus’s morning Houston Chronicle has yet to give him even one Portland Trailblazer box score, not even a “Yesterday’s Late Box.”  Good thing he discovered the Internet last week, huh?)

Here’s a look at the pace-pushers from Week 1:

Team	100-poss games	poss/game	points/game
Minnesota	3 out of 3	102.33	98.67
Denver	3 out of 4	102.25	105.75
Miami	3 out of 4	102.25	104.75
Portland	2 out of 3	101.33	106.33

None of these teams have yet played an overtime game; indeed there's been only one so far, courtesy of a Kyrie Irving blown lay-up.

And on that note of ineptitude, Abacus will move on to Week 2—he'd better take his nap first!