B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 11
Oh, what a glorious sport this is.
On the field, college football is creating magic each and every week. Week 10 was particularly beautiful when you add up the intrigue and significance.
At the betting window, it was magical as well. A strong season stayed strong on Saturday, as our CFB picks against the spread went 7-2. For the year, we are now a lovely 58-36-3.
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As always, we do not take greatness for granted. We appreciate the quality weeks, and then we move on. Week 11 is ripe with opportunity.
Before we get to the picks, here is what went right (and wrong) last weekend.
The Good: Notre Dame (+3.5) vs. Clemson
There were a bunch of games that felt right, although this one didn’t have much drama about it. The Irish absolutely dominated at home, and this bet never really felt threatened after Notre Dame scored its first touchdown.
The Bad: Tulsa (+7.5) vs. Tulane
We got cute, and Tulane made us pay. One of the best teams against the spread covered once again. Tulsa stayed in the game throughout, although we were constantly chasing points. It didn’t work out, although it wasn’t too far off.
With that out of the way, time for more winners.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.
Texas (-7) vs. TCU
Let’s begin with the obvious. Texas has gotten in the habit of blowing big leads, and TCU has mastered the art of falling behind and then coming back to win. Something has got to give this week, and I believe it will.
The oddsmakers are showing a great deal of faith in Texas, which is likely to generate some strong opinions.
On one hand, TCU is unbeaten and has lost just one game against the spread all season. On the other, it has flirted with disaster the past month, falling behind (but rallying) in four consecutive games.
Texas, meanwhile, has walked its own highwire act. Most recently, the Longhorns beat Kansas State on the road, although the win (and cover) did not come without drama.
Here’s the primary reason why I like Texas: TCU has the nation’s No. 70-ranked rushing defense, allowing nearly four yards per rush. Against running back Bijan Robinson, the best running back in football, that’s a problem.
Texas derails TCU’s unbeaten season, and it does so in a double-digit win.
Arkansas (+3) vs. LSU
Oh, we’re not done with top-10 teams that could be in for a rough weekend.
LSU, fresh off its dramatic, emphatic win over Alabama, is a small favorite over a team that just lost outright to Liberty at home. (Liberty fans, I mean no disrespect. But even you must admit this point spread is pretty wild.)
For starters, the hangover potential for this team is enormous. The Tigers just beat Alabama, something they rarely do, and the celebration could linger well into this week.
Here’s another element to consider. It’s Week 11, and LSU has played two true road games this season. That’s it. The first road game was a near loss at Auburn; the second was a 10-point win over Florida.
The road experience, at least thus far, has been a mixed bag at best.
Arkansas, of course, is not without issues. Losing to Liberty as a double-digit favorite isn’t ideal, although Hugh Freeze’s team has been superb this year.
This week, the Hogs bounce back. This is the Sam Pittman special, and Arkansas, despite a fair number of ups and downs, throws chaos into the conference once more.
Wake Forest (-3.5) vs. North Carolina
Do you sense a trend this week? I promise, it’s not intentional. While chaos is something we appreciate and celebrate in these parts, it’s not something we force.
This is a game and line I like a great deal. In fact, I’m kicking myself for not backing Virginia against UNC last week. The Cavaliers were a seven-point underdog, and they nearly upset the Tar Heels.
A week later, and the Demon Deacons are live coming off back-to-back losses on the road. This week, Wake Forest will play in front of the home crowd. When you consider that Wake is 4-1 against the spread at home, it puts the matchup in perspective.
Although I love watching Drake Maye throw footballs for UNC, this will be a fascinating temperature check. To date, North Carolina’s best win is either Duke or Pittsburgh. (That is a polite way of saying I have concerns.)
Wake Forest wins a football game with a basketball score.
Oregon State (-14) vs. Cal
Give Cal credit. The Bears have hung tough against some quality teams.
After nearly upsetting Notre Dame earlier in the year, Cal put a scare into USC on the road last weekend. This outcome came just a few weeks after the Bears were competitive against Washington.
With that out of the way, this will likely be an ugly football game. Oregon State has not lost against the spread at home, and the Beavers seem to thrive when playing in Corvallis.
This week, Oregon State will attempt to bounce back from a close loss to Washington that was played in difficult conditions. This will be a much different challenge against a much different team.
While Cal has played admirably, the weight of five consecutive losses—coupled with back-to-back weeks on the road—finally catches up. The Beavers take down the Bears with ease. Nature in reverse.
Baylor (-3) vs. Kansas State
Somewhat quietly, Baylor has revived a season that was heading in the wrong direction. After three consecutive wins, including a thrilling three-point win at Oklahoma a week ago, the Bears are rolling.
On the other side, Kansas State has now lost two of the last three games. In fairness to the Wildcats, they have been competitive in every game this year.
It feels like, however, that these two teams are heading in different directions. And although K-State is still ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll, it’s Baylor that is favored to win.
For the Bears, the formula is simple: recreate last week’s game plan.
Baylor ran for 281 yards against Oklahoma, and running back Craig Williams did the heavy lifting. After watching Texas run for 269 yards last week, the strategy to recreate this production should be pretty direct.
Either way, Baylor stays hot with a victory.
Other Games on the Card
Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. East Carolina
I love what the Pirates have done, but this feels like the perfect spot for a Cincinnati team trying to make a statement. The Bearcats beat a very good team by more than a touchdown.
UCLA vs. Arizona (Over 78)
It's a lot points, although I am here for it. We were on the UCLA over last week, and the Bruins cashed in against Arizona State. This week, we're doing the same at a higher number. Final score: UCLA 55, Arizona 31.
UConn (+14.5) vs. Liberty
Is this a tad scary? Absolutely. But UConn is riding a wave right now thanks to Jim Mora Jr., and we're hopping on. Liberty will have a football hangover after last week, and it shows.
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