NFL Football: Buffalo Bills 2011 Season in Review

From the Buffalo Bills hot early season 5-2 start, complete with the stirring second-half comeback wins against the New England Patriots and Oakland Raiders, to the other end of the spectrum, as witnessed by an ugly seven-game losing streak, the 2011 Bills season truly covered the gamut of highs and lows.

Now that the Bills season has ended with a record of 6-10, we can now take a look back at this past season and analyze everything about the team, from the good things, to the bad things and even the ugly things.

We will also talk about the upcoming 2012 season and toss out some potential names for consideration with the Bills first-round draft pick in 2012. We will also do some speculation with respect to free agency and which players the Bills might want to bring back next year.

Things the Bills Team Can Be Proud of

The Bills led the entire NFL in giving up the fewest sacks with just 23 allowed. This can be attributed to improved offensive line play, in combination with the short-passing game of the Bills and Ryan Fitzpatrick delivering his passes on time in that attack.

Steve Johnson becoming the first player in team history to record back-to-back 1,000-plus yards in receptions in consecutive seasons.

The Bills defense finished second in the AFC with 20 pass interceptions. It trailed only the New England Patriots (23) and was tied with Kansas City Chiefs for second place.

The Bills overall offense increased its production in 2011 to produce 46 yards on average more per game than it did in 2010. (increased from 304.9 to 351.5).

The Bills scoring offense rose from 17.7 points per game in 2010 to 23.3 points per game in 2011.

Fitzpatrick upped his production from 3,000 passing yards in 2010 to 3,832 in 2011, a gain of 832 yards. In addition, Fitzpatrick increased his completion percentage from 57.8 to 62 percent this year.

The Bills ground game showed improvement across the board. It gained 1,921 rushing yards in 2011, which was 120.1 per game and 4.9 yards per rush, and had 12 touchdowns and only lost four fumbles. Its overall rushing rank was 13. In 2010, those numbers were 1,720 rushing yards, 107.5 yards per game, an average of 4.3 yards per rush and only six rushing touchdowns. The Bills lost five fumbles and had an overall rank of 18.

The Bills had slight improvement in converting red zone scoring chances, going from a No. 20 rank in 2010 with 51.3 percent rate, to a rate of 52.8 percent, ranking them No. 11 in the NFL.

Things Bills Team Aren't Very Proud of

A 2010 eight-game losing streak that was followed by a seven-game losing streak in 2011. These long losing streaks do not go hand-in-hand with making the playoffs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick's TD to INT ratio went from 23 TD to 15 INT in 2010 to 24 TD to 23 INT in 2011.

Fitzpatrick led the NFL with 23 interceptions in 2011.

The Bills allowed the most yardage in team history in 2011—371.1 yards per game—which is up slightly from last year's 361.6 yards per game.

The Bills saw their penalty yardage jump from 633 yards in 2010 to 743 yards in 2011.

The Bills converted 37.9 percent of their third down chances in 2010. This year that conversion percentage dropped down to 32.5 percent.

Bills defense gave up .5 more points this year, as the points allowed average rose from 26.6 to 27.1 in 2011.

Fitzpatrick's QB Passer Rating fell from 81.8 last year to 79.1 this year. His yards per passing attempt also fell from 6.80 to 6.74, meaning he threw the ball down the field less this year.

2011 Overview Analysis

Now that we have gone through all of the specific high points and low points of the season, we can talk about the team in general.

The Good

Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both ran the ball effectively this year. If Chan Gailey doesn't come up with some new designs to incorporate both of them in the backfield at the same time next year, I will be disappointed in his ability to be a creative offensive guru.

The offensive line showed the ability to spring Jackson and Spiller on long runs and by and large kept Fitzpatrick protected. They proved that they can switch roles, are versatile, and can be swapped in and out for each other based on injuries that occur during a game. Just don't ask Andy Levitre to play center.

The rookie class of 2011 gained valuable experience, especially since it didn't have the benefit of any OTA's and a very limited summer camp practice schedule. I like the progress that the draft class made.

The Average

Ryan Fitzpatrick started off like gangbusters, but as the season progressed, he continued to make ill-advised decisions by throwing into tight coverage. His insistence to throw up that long lob pass along the sidelines was constantly falling short of the mark, and usually wound up in interceptions.

The draft class of 2010 didn't do that much to distinguish themselves in 2011, outside of C.J. Spiller. Alex Carrington and Arthur Moats made some plays but I wouldn't classify them as being consistent. Torell Troup had a lost year, and whatever happened to Danny Batten? Marcus Easley is quickly running out of time, and he may be a reincarnation of James Hardy.

The Bad

George Edwards' defensive schemes and inability to find ways to put pressure on the quarterback cost the Bills dearly. Good riddance to George.

Leodis McKelvin looked lost in the secondary for long stretches during the year, and his inability to see the football in flight is almost mind-boggling. He turns his back to the quarterback and has no idea when to make a play on the ball.

Steve Johnson's need to express himself and put his messages out there ahead of the good of the team drives me absolutely nuts. Sure, he is harmless overall, but he just doesn't get the big picture.

Fred Jackson

Ever since he arrived in Buffalo, Fred Jackson has exhibited flashes of brilliant play. Back when he was the occasional third-down change-of-pace running back, Jackson would make a run or catch a pass, and it would make you sit up in your seat and wonder what could happen if he saw more time.

Well, the Chan Gailey spread offense and the 2011 season proved what Jackson could do when he was allowed to be the featured back. Had Jackson not suffered the broken leg against the Miami Dolphins, there is no telling how much yardage he would have amassed this year. Jackson was en route to a MVP-caliber type of season until the leg injury struck.

Even though Jackson missed six complete games, and the majority of a seventh game, he still established career highs this year in rushing touchdowns (six), longest career run (80 yards) and the highest average of rushing yards per carry, 5.5.

Not only that, but Jackson also established career highs as a pass receiver in that he gained 442 yards as a receiver and established a new career high in average yardage per reception at 11.3. He also set a new high with 10 rushes of 20 plus yards or longer.

Jackson was responsible for 53 first downs this year, and despite defenses stacking the box against him, Jackson continued to find ways to create at least one big play every week to help out the offense. While it is gratifying for the Bills to see C.J. Spiller doing so well in Jackson's absence, the reality of the situation is that Jackson is still in the prime of his career, and you continue to ride that horse until he can't be ridden any longer.

From a pass receiving threat, to a great power running back, to an extraordinary pass blocker as a running back, Fred Jackson is a vital key to the Bills' short-term success. To my way of thinking, he is the best part of the 2011 season for the Bills organization.

Dave Wannstedt Replaces George Edwards

As of now, I am glad that George Edwards is out because I was just never sold on the job that he was doing over the past two years. Is Dave Wannstedt the right guy to turn around the Bills' defensive woes?

Clearly, Chan Gailey is comfortable with Wannstedt, and I don't think he feels threatened that Wannstedt could eventually take Gailey out as head coach down the road.

The question on my mind is what will Wannstedt do to improve the defense? For starters, it would be a boon to any defensive coordinator to have Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman return to your team in 100 percent physical health.

Having both of those guys back in 2012 and ready to return back to earlier form can only mean good things for the Bills defense. Those are the kind of guys you build around. Whether a healthy Merriman is even possible any longer is a fair question. We can only hope.

So, what will Wannstedt do? Will he keep the 3-4 concept, or will he want to switch to 4-3? Or, will he want to go with Edwards' hybrid approach and adjust it from game to game depending on the opponent?

The Bills have some talent now on the defensive line with Marcell Dareus, Williams, Alex Carrington, Troup, Spencer Johnson, Dwan Edwards and Kellen Heard. They have as much beef and strength as any defensive line in Bills recent history.

The linebacker corps to me is the bigger question mark. The younger players like Moats and Batten didn't really step up and do much. Of course the Bills released Aaron Maybin in camp, and look at what he did with the Jets. Who knew?

In my opinion, the Bills upgraded their linebacking corps with the addition of Nick Barnett over Paul Posluszny. Barnett showed great speed during the season, and all of the concern about injury history proved to not be an issue, as Barnett played in all 16 games.

Chris Kelsay played better in the second half than he did in the first half. Andra Davis and Kirk Morrison probably are casualties going forward, as the Bills need to land some more athletic playmakers at LB.

From the secondary, George Wilson and Jairus Byrd had solid seasons, and Da'Norris Searcy turned in a nice rookie season as well. The corners were beat far too regularly, especially Florence and McKelvin. Terrence McGee is once again a health risk and Aaron Williams, and Justin Rogers flashed some talent while learning via baptism by fire as rookies.

Bills Issues at Quarterback

Chan Gailey is often quoted as saying that if Ryan Fitzpatrick were the biggest of his problems, then he wouldn't have any problems. While on the surface I can appreciate what Gailey is trying to say, the reality is that Fitzpatrick has proven that he isn't always the answer.

Fitzpatrick is prone to play almost perfect football (check out those three touchdowns in the season finale against the Patriots in the first three drives of the game), and then just as easily go into a major funk where the team doesn't score for the rest of the game and he throws four interceptions.

The Bills don't really have a bona fide quarterback to turn to when Fitzpatrick goes off the deep end. With the No. 10 draft pick, the Bills can forget about taking a quarterback in the first round, because Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be long gone when the Bills' turn is on the clock.

With both Matt Barkley and Landry Jones deciding to stay in school, that makes the decision easy. However, I would be open to looking at somebody like Ryan Tannehill in the second round. Bring the kid in, and keep Fitz on his toes.

There is no question that the NFL-leading 23 interceptions were not all Fitzpatrick's fault, as quite a few of them were the result of passes that went off a Bills player and bounced up in the air for an easy pick. I get that part.

But I also recall a number of interceptions that he had no business throwing, and those mistakes are not the kind of thing our defense is good at preventing a quick touchdown by the opposition.

I still see Fitzpatrick as the starter in 2012, but I also want to state that I don't want to be in a position that we have no one else to turn to when Fitz is having a bad day. I realize that we signed Tyler Thigpen to a long-term deal, but frankly I just wasn't very impressed with what I saw from him this year.

Brad Smith Dilemma

What in the world will Gailey ask Brad Smith to do in 2012? Will he be the Wildcat QB, a kick returner or a starting wide receiver? His role continued to evolve and change throughout the 2011 season, but his chances to run the Wilcat were basically eliminated from his options in the second half of the season.

In the first half of the year, you could basically count on Smith to pick up a crucial first down whenever they brought him in to run the Wildcat. I don't recall what week things changed, but Gailey abruptly eliminated Smith from running the Wildcat, and you never saw him in that function for the rest of the season.

When Gailey had Kordell Stewart in Pittsburgh, he would constantly rotate Stewart throughout his various uses during the entire season. I realize that injuries to wide receivers Marcus Easley, Roscoe Parrish and Donald Jones tied Gailey's hands to a degree, but are you telling me that Smith can't rotate out of being a receiver to run one play as Wildcat QB when you have a crucial third-and-short or fourth-and-short scenario?

With all of the various weapons at Gailey's disposal in the offense, and assuming that everybody else is returning for 2012, it will be interesting to see what lessons Gailey learned about his use of Brad Smith and what his plans are for him in 2012.

Steve Johnson: Bring Him Back or Let Him Walk?

What is the league-wide perception of Steve Johnson? Is he thought to be a gifted and talented wide receiver in the DeSean Jackson mold, that is prone to bouts of selfish behavior, putting his needs ahead of the team? Or is he just a talented misunderstood player that is just in need of some simple maturity?

Johnson clearly is an impact player on the Bills offense. Having registered two straight 1,000-plus yards in receptions highlights how important he is to the offense and to the team. But his penchant for drawing attention to himself after scoring touchdowns has to be a maddening situation for Gailey and the team.

What if the Bills focused on throwing the ball to Johnson between the 20's and ignored him in the red zone? Or why not have every Bills receiver that is in the end zone swarm Johnson after he catches a touchdown pass and not give him any room or space to anything that isn't in the best interests of the team?

It will be interesting to see how the negotiations go with Johnson. Do the Bills offer him a reasonably well-paying contract offer attached with multiple years, or do they simply throw a franchise tag at him and give him one more chance to see if he has grown up or not?

Bills Draft Slot Is No.10 and 10 Names to Tuck Away

Here is the set draft order for the 2012 NFL draft. The Bills will be drafting out of the No. 10 position, and in subsequent rounds they will be rotating places with both Carolina and Miami.

1. Indianapolis Colts, 2-14
2. St. Louis Rams, 2-14
3. Minnesota Vikings, 3-13
4. Cleveland Browns, 4-12
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4-12
6. Washington Redskins, 5-11
7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-11
8. Carolina Panthers, 6-10
9. Miami Dolphins, 6-10
10. Buffalo Bills, 6-10

So, with the No. 10 draft slot in mind, we are throwing out 12 names for you to get familiar with, as the Bills could easily make their first draft pick from somebody on this list:

1. Andrew Luck, Standford, QB  

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, QB  

3. Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St., WR 

4. Vontaze Burfict,  Arizona St., LB  

5. Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina, WR 

6. Matt Kalil, USC, Tackle    

7 -  Jonathan Martin, Stanford, Tackle  

8. Whitney Mercilus, Illinois, DE 

9. Riley Reiff, Iowa, Tackle       

10. Morris Claiborne, LSU, Corner  

11. Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama, Corner 

12. Courtney Upshaw, Alabama, LB

I didn't include any running backs since the Bills are set there, but if Trent Richardson goes ahead of No. 10, that just means there is one more great player available for the Bills to select from. They could also consider trading down, but we know that is unlikely for Buddy Nix to do.

Bills Free Agents in 2012 and 2012 Opponents

Bills 2012 Opponents

NFL official 2012 schedule will come out later, but at least we know who the Bills will be playing at home and on the road next year.

Home Opponents

Kansas City, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Seattle, St. Louis, Miami, New England, NY Jets

Away Opponents

Cleveland, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, San Francisco, Miami, New England, NY Jets

Bills Free Agents for 2012

Unrestricted

OT Demetrius Bell, TE Scott Chandler, RB Tashard Choice, CB Reggie Corner, LB Andra Davis
WR Derek Hagan, WR Stevie Johnson, K Rian Lindell, WR Ruvell Martin, LB Kirk Morrison
WR Roscoe Parrish, K Dave Rayner, S Bryan Scott and LB Reggie Torbor

Restricted

OL Chad Rinehart, LS Garrison Sanborn and OL Kraig Urbik

From the free agent lists, the priorities to re-sign would be Bell, Chandler, Johnson, Lindell, Parrish, Scott, Sanborn, Rinehart and Urbik.  Based on cost and room with the salary cap, I could see a case for Choice, Hagan and Martin (for special teams).

What Does Buddy Nix Need to Do to Get Bills to Playoffs?

Since Detroit and Cincinnati qualified this year for the playoffs, that leaves the Buffalo Bills as the only NFL team that has failed to reach the playoffs since 2000. The pressure in year three to reach the playoffs for the duo of Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey will be turned up several notches, especially when the fans saw what the team was capable of doing with the fast 5-2 start.

Nix will need to come up with another solid draft class to follow up what he did in 2011. I see the priorities as several pass-rushers, a left tackle, a wide receiver that can stretch the field, a quarterback that can be an upgrade over Tyler Thigpen as the backup and some help at corner and linebacker.

That list is long enough that it won't be possible to meet it all in the draft, so that is where free agency comes in to fill in the gaps.

The Bills have been hit hard with injuries in both years under Gailey, so hopefully they can catch a break there in 2012, at least to a degree. A healthy Fred Jackson, Shawne Merriman, Kyle Williams, Terrence McGee, Roscoe Parrish, Eric Wood, Rian Lindell and Marcus Easley would go a long way towards curing what ails the Bills team.

While Doug Whaley and the Bills front office did a great job during the 2010 season of identifying free agents like Chad Rinehart, Kraig Urbik, Kellen Heard, Erik Pears and Scott Chandler, there seemed to be a lack of notable discoveries in 2011. If there were, I somehow missed them.

The Bills aren't that far away from becoming a playoff team. Obviously they will need more consistent play from Ryan Fitzpatrick and they will need their defense to step up several notches from what they did in 2010 and 2011. But the nucleus is there, and with some added depth and smart moves, the Bills are in position to take the next step forward. What do Bills fans think?