B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 8
Some Saturdays are so good you forget about the bets.
Winning money, of course, is always the objective. But when you are gifted a game like the one we witnessed between Alabama and Tennessee, the wagers take a back seat.
The same can be said about TCU-Oklahoma State and USC-Utah—what glorious football games they were.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The same cannot be said about our picks against the spread last week. In fact, it was downright rough.
A roaring start to the year has cooled some in recent weeks. Still, we are 39-27-3 against the spread on the year. Also, the winners are about to flow.
Before we get into this week's picks, let's explore the good and the bad from the week that was.
The Good: Duke (+7) vs. North Carolina: Although UNC came back and won the football game, the Blue Devils covered the spread and nearly pulled the upset. While not a lot went right in marquee games, this one worked out just fine.
The Bad: Alabama at Tennessee (Under 66): The idea behind this selection was that nervous energy would translate to less output. More than 100 points later, and it’s safe to say that this football hypothesis backfired. Hey, it happens.
Here are the Week 8 picks.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.
Miami (-9) vs. Duke
For regulars of this weekly column, you are well aware that backing Miami has already backfired this season. The Hurricanes have been inconsistent (at best) this year, and that's being kind.
But this point spread seems somewhat bold in the best possible way, and the oddsmakers' confidence in Miami feels noteworthy.
Mario Cristobal's team didn't exactly dazzle against Virginia Tech on the road last week, but QB Tyler Van Dyke finally seemed to find a rhythm, completing 63 percent of his passes for 351 yards and two touchdowns. Although Miami didn't light up the scoreboard, there were some positive signs that should translate soon.
Specifically, this week. (Well, hopefully.)
The Blue Devils were indeed solid last week, as referenced above. But it's also not a performance that feels easily duplicated. A week prior, Duke lost outright to Georgia Tech.
Don't just reach for the points. Miami finally delivers a convincing win.
SMU (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati
One team is 5-1. The other is 3-3. One team is ranked coming off a trip to the playoff. The other is SMU.
The spread between these two teams is only a field goal, which is likely going to generate a fair amount of public interest in Cincinnati.
Look deeper, and you will see a capable SMU team that has plenty of potential. A few weeks back, the Mustangs hung tough with TCU at home. They also kept it tight against Maryland, which speaks to the quality of the team.
Since playing Arkansas in the opener, Cincinnati hasn't played much of anyone. (Sorry, Indiana fans.) Furthermore, the last result, a 28-24 win over South Florida before a bye, was too close for comfort.
Given everything that the Bearcats lost this offseason, they deserve the utmost credit for playing as well as they have early on.
They have yet to cover a spread on the road, however, and it doesn't start this week.
Texas Tech (-6.5) vs. West Virginia
Last week, West Virginia was one of the few teams that won us money. This week, we're hoping that the Mountaineers do their part in a slightly different way.
In watching that game against Baylor, one thing really stood out. This West Virginia defense is a bit of a mess—currently tied at No. 103 in scoring defense in the nation—and it likely won't improve this week.
Texas Tech comes into this game off a bye, which couldn't have come at a better time. All three capable QBs, Behren Morton, Donovan Smith and Tyler Shough, have dealt with injuries of some kind. All appear to be getting closer to playing.
Morton, a redshirt freshman, feels like the potential starter. He was excellent against OK State, accounting for 415 total yards and three touchdowns, although any of the three could perform well if called upon.
Lubbock is a strange place to play. Just ask Texas. It plays a role once again, and the Red Raiders deliver a convincing win.
LSU (-2) vs. Ole Miss
Don't do this to me again, LSU.
Just, well...don't.
A few weeks ago, we backed the Tigers against Tennessee. LSU was a small underdog at home against the Vols, and they proceeded to botch the game immediately and lose by roughly 479 points.
A few weeks later, and we're going back to the well.
The No. 7 team in the AP Poll is an underdog against an unranked conference foe. That is a wild development, although I'm not exactly shocked the point spread settled where it has.
To be clear, Lane Kiffin deserves the utmost credit for getting the Rebels to 7-0. Along the way, however, Ole Miss has failed to cover the spread in three of the past four games. The Rebels struggled against Tulsa, could have lost to Kentucky and had moments of "meh" against Vanderbilt and Auburn.
It sets up a unique betting opportunity for LSU, which is coming off a 45-35 win at Florida. While there won't be that many points this week, there will be enough.
The Tigers upend Ole Miss' perfect season and cover the spread.
Oregon (-6) vs. UCLA
We are approaching Halloween, and UCLA has played exactly one true road game thus far. Oh, and that trip was to lovely Boulder, Colorado, to take on a very bad football team.
That is a polite way of pointing out how difficult this game might be for a team that hasn't seen an environment anything close to what it will see on Saturday afternoon. There is a lot to like about UCLA, especially quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet. The defense has also played better than expected.
But this road trip feels like a doozy, and Oregon is a much different team than the one we saw lose by 46 points to Georgia in the opener.
When quarterback Bo Nix is on, and that's been the case for much of the year, he can be dynamic. Playing at home should help a great deal.
Thus far, the Ducks have not lost a game against the spread playing in their own building. That theme continues once again with an impressive win over a very good foe.
Other Games on the Card
Wisconsin (-2.5) vs. Purdue
On the topic of weird point spreads, here's another. While this year has certainly not gone as planned for Wisconsin, it will be better for one week. Braelon Allen runs wild for the Badgers.
East Carolina (+5) vs. UCF
UCF has been on fire, but East Carolina is no pushover. The Pirates cost me last week, although they'll be up for this. Also, expect a whole lot of points in one of the sneaky-good games of the weekend.
Louisville (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Here are two teams we're still trying to figure out. Pitt isn't the team many thought they were getting in the preseason, and Louisville is in a position to take full advantage of the opportunity at home.
Rutgers (-3) vs. Indiana
It's probably not going to be a great football game, and please don't let anyone paint a different picture. Rutgers, however, just feels like a better overall team than Indiana, and the Scarlet Knights cover the number in a win.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
