Why Your Favorite Team Won't Win the 2022-23 NBA Title
Annual disclaimer: I do not actually despise Your Favorite NBA Team™.
Au contraire, I love Your Favorite NBA Team. They are underrated. Every other franchise is overrated. Your Favorite NBA Team doesn't have enough nationally televised games. Everyone else's has far too many. I am betting my life's savings on Your Favorite NBA Team to cash the over on their win total. Everyone on Your Favorite NBA Team will have a career year. If Your Favorite NBA Team isn't a championship formality now, it will be by the trade deadline, when they flip a collection of inessential contributors for a superstar without having to relinquish a single valuable draft pick or prospect.
When Your Favorite NBA Team wins the first end of a back-to-back on a Tuesday or Wednesday in January, against an opponent starting four or five players whose names you must Google to confirm they are actual NBA players, I will run through the streets, tears of joy streaming down my face and euphoric snot cascading out of my nostrils, reciting a victory song I will have written just for the occasion at the top of my lungs while live-streaming every moment of it across all six kazillion social media platforms.
Your Favorite NBA Team is My Favorite NBA Team™.
For the purpose of this exercise, though, I do not like Your Favorite NBA Team. I hate them. Loathe them. Despise them with the catastrophically explosive passion of a thousand-trillion simultaneous supernovas. I have never watched any of their games, and I don't plan to start now.
It's not personal. Or for clicks. (Well, not purely for clicks.) It's science. Only one team wins the NBA title every year. In 2022-23, it won't be yours—statistically speaking, anyway. I'm here to explain why.
Armors of apathy should be worn in the space that follows at all times. Safety first, after all. Let's ride.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
In a nutshell: The Dejounte Murray trade wasn’t the Donovan Mitchell trade.
“Why are the Atlanta Hawks getting fewer hugs and kisses for their acquisition of Dejounte Murray than the Cleveland Cavaliers for their massively gross overpay in the Donovan Mitchell trade?!” I, @BiasedHawksFan126782*, lament impartially on Twitter, as the distinct differences between the two situations soar over my head. “They gave up three unprotected firsts! And two swaps! And two rotation players! And Ochai Agbaji, who I have most definitely watched and who I know will be the best imaginable version of a Danny Green-Desmond Bane hybrid from Day 1.”
Look, the Murray trade is not unreasonable. Atlanta needs defense. Badly. Murray provides plenty of that. And he should help stabilize the offensive minutes without Trae Young, which still pretty much sucked last year. Murray, in theory, should also allow the Hawks to explore what Young can do without the ball as both a standstill and movement shooter and maybe even a screener.
And yet, there is something eerily Russell Westbrook-to-the-Los Angeles Lakers about this logic. Murray is so much better than Russ. Let’s make that clear. But if a large portion of the argument behind his arrival rests on him playing without your only All-NBA player or displacing said All-NBA player from the ball, then the risk involved is self-explanatory and implosive.
Once more: This could work. But the Young-Murray dynamic is not the only potential wrinkle. The Hawks are light on wing depth, even if De’Andre Hunter The Concept catches up to De’Andre Hunter in Actuality. Bogdan Bogdanović needs to be draped in bubble wrap until he successfully misses fewer than 15 games as a member of the Hawks. Jalen Johnson needs to be ready for minutes.
Oh, and not-happy-with-his-usage-last-season John Collins needs to be content with his role in an offense that added another ball-dominant creator. This is all, very clearly, going to end well and doesn’t have even a puncher’s chance of culminating in Atlanta looking up at the Washington Wizards.
*Note: I am not @BiasedHawksFan126782
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
In a nutshell: They’re more combustible than last year.
The Boston Celtics should be reveling in an offseason of triumph. They traded for Malcolm Brogdon, who gives them another capable shooter and straight-line creator, and they diversified their half-court floor game further with the addition of Danilo Gallinari. The East wasn’t necessarily theirs, but dammit if anyone other than the full-strength Milwaukee Bucks had claim to it.
So much for that.
Gallinari tore his left ACL and is out for the season. Robert Williams III’s knees, meanwhile, are also a problem. He underwent another procedure on the left one and won’t resume basketball activities until around Thanksgiving at earliest. It’ll be a minor miracle if he takes the court before 2023.
Boston’s front line is subsequently in a pickle. The Celtics can’t run 36-year-old Al Horford aground and don’t have much bankable depth beyond Grant Williams. Some combination of Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser, Blake Griffin (yes, that Blake Griffin), Noah Vonleh, Mfiondu Kabengele and, maybe, Jayson Tatum at center are suddenly important to surviving the regular season.
Big whoop. Boston is all-playoffs-everything, baby. Fair point. And they can certainly count on RW3 to be healthy by then. It’s not like he’s ever been banged-up in the postseason before.
Let’s also not discount the Celtics joining the faux Kevin Durant sweepstakes over the summer, even if tangentially. I’m sure being hocked in a deal weeks after making the Finals made Jaylen Brown feel really good. No way that comes back to bite Boston.
Finally, there is the incredibly serious matter of head coach Ime Udoka getting suspended for the entire season after an independent law firm "found that he used crude language in his dialogue with a female subordinate prior to the start of an improper workplace relationship with the woman." A press conference held by team president Brad Stevens and owner Wyc Grousbeck yielded little clarity and didn’t inspire much confidence in how the matter was handled and ultimately leaked.
There are "no guarantees" Udoka will ever be back with the Celtics. Joe Mazzulla has been named head coach in the interim and is tasked with coaching a should-be contender that had last year’s best defense. This situation and the response is unprecedented, so much bigger than basketball and something that should not just fade into the backdrop.
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
In a nutshell: Face it, this team is doomed.
Tweeting "The Brooklyn Nets are getting slept on!" may be good for a fleeting dopamine rush fueled by droves of "likes" and "😤" replies from blind optimists with "NetsFan" followed by source code in their handles. Conceptually, when you look at their roster, there are even kernels of truth to the sentiment.
In actuality, the Nets are a won't-be contender better built to get in their own way than hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Kevin Durant reportedly requested a trade and then pushed for the organization to jettison both general manager Sean Marks and head coach Steve Nash. All three are still with the team, and we're supposed to believe everything is and will remain hunky-dory. Riiiiiight.
This says nothing of the roster's overarching unpredictability. KD continues to play like an all-time great—and has also missed more combined regular-season and playoff games since 2018-19 than the billed-as-fragile Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard.
Ben Simmons has not played meaningful basketball in roughly 16 months, is coming off back surgery and, oh, will probably log reps at center—something he's never done. What could go wrong?
Anything, meanwhile, is on the table for contract-year Kyrie Irving. He could lead the league in scoring. He could also lead it in work-from-home requests on game day. His range of outcomes is as wide as the subject matter in the unanswered telepathic messages I presume he sends to Elon Musk.
So, yeah, this team is doomed.
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Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
In a nutshell: Even their annual pursuit of the 10-seed feels ambitious.
The Charlotte Hornets didn’t do much of anything over the offseason, which is an interesting approach for a team that so desperately needed to do anything. Reuniting with head coach Steve Clifford—who, by the way, is a rock-solid hire—was their biggest move, and that’s mostly because Kenny Atkinson burned them first.
(To what extent the Hornets were in freeze frame because of Miles Bridges is unclear. He remains unsigned after being charged with three counts of felony domestic violence. He is “accused of assaulting his girlfriend in front of their two children” and his case has been continued (again) until Oct. 17, per ESPN’s Baxter Holmes.)
We are now in Year No. Infinity of the Hornets neglecting to properly beef up their center rotation. Everything they do up front is inherently transient. They haven’t had a permanent answer at the 5 since, approximately, the Al Jefferson era. And even that was brief. Get ready for another year of Mason Plumlee, a little Nick Richards, not enough of Mark Williams and probably very little of Kai Jones.
Bringing back Cody Martin was good—and essential. Doing absolutely nothing to address the backup point guard slot was neither. Charlotte has Dennis Smith Jr., staggering Terry Rozier from the starters, a dab of Point Cody Martin, 37 to 49 games of Gordon Hayward and no-friend-of-the-preseason James Bouknight.
This always mattered. It matters even more now that franchise lifeline LaMelo Ball is sidelined at least one to two weeks with a sprained left ankle. That’s not a long time. He should probably get used to the view from the sidelines anyway. The Hornets are primed to kick their habit of lusting after the 10-seed and join the race to the bottom—a choice the rest of the East might just make for them.
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
In a nutshell: DeMar DeRozan can’t shoot 3 trillion percent in crunch time forever.
Injuries torpedoed what was a more promising than expected Chicago Bulls team in 2021-22. Lonzo Ball (47), Alex Caruso (41) and Patrick Williams (65) missed a combined 153 games, and Zach LaVine was battling left knee issues by season’s end.
Chicago spent a huge chunk of the year near the top of the East anyway, thanks to DeMar DeRozan’s crunch-time heroics and a defense that placed eighth in points allowed per possession through Christmas. But that same defense cratered to 26th over the final three months, a majority stretch that coincided with extensive absences from Lonzo and Caruso, whose collective hyper-aggression made it possible to fortify lineups featuring at least two of DeRozan, LaVine and Nikola Vučević.
Ball will now begin 2022-23 where he finished 2021-22: on the shelf. He underwent another procedure on his left knee, and if you ask head coach Billy Donovan, the Bulls have to assume he won’t be around all year.
Chicago doesn't have a ready-made replacement for Lonzo on defense unless Williams or Ayo Dosunmu go kaboom. (I’m not ruling either out.) Ball’s absence is just as critical on offense—and harder to paper over. The Bulls finished 29th in the share of their looks from deep, and nobody on the team averaged more made or attempted triples per 100 possessions than Lonzo.
To make matters worse, Chicago is coming off an uninspiring offseason. It used only part of the mid-level exception, as small markets hard up for cash tend to do, and turned that portion of the MLE into Andre Drummond. Goran Dragić is a solid signing for the minimum, but he’s 36. The Bulls did not have the bi-annual exception to use because they, for some reason, burned it on Tristan Thompson during the middle of last season.
None of this reads like a team poised to do more than earn a play-in dalliance, let alone contend for a title. If DeRozan is anything less than a peripheral MVP candidate again, Chicago is screwed.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
In a nutshell: Was now really the right time for the Donovan Mitchell trade?
Putting aside the opportunity cost of the Donovan Mitchell trade—three unprotected firsts, two swaps, two rotation players and No. 14 pick Ochai Agbaji—isn’t difficult. That is, in fact, a boatload. Jettisoning three unprotected firsts is always risky, and two of them post-date Mitchell’s current contract.
Still, the worst-case scenario is oddly palatable. Evan Mobley is 21 and entering Year 2. Darius Garland, fresh off an All-Star selection, is 22 and doesn’t begin his post-rookie extension until 2023-24. Jarrett, also fresh off an All-Star selection, is only 24. The Cavs could lose Mitchell in 2025 free agency (player option) or trade him before then and be left with a workable asset base.
Um, that’s the spirit?
Digestible worst-case scenarios mean nothing if Cleveland’s best-case outcome isn’t title contention. That much remains to be seen. Mobley looks like a future best-player-alive candidate, but again, he’s entering Year 2. Despite the relative ease with which Mitchell and Garland should work on offense, this trade makes the most sense if Mobley emerges as Cleveland’s best player. How long before that happens?
There’s also something discomfiting about the Cavs getting their first taste of almost-playoff basketball sans LeBron James and then acting like they’re one player away from raising another banner that same offseason. They’re teasing fate. And they’re doing so without concrete wing depth.
Dean Wade is the most versatile of the options. Can he handle heavier defensive lifting playing next to two guards? Is there too much ball-handling overlap if Caris LeVert enters the mix? Isaac Okoro shot 35.1 percent on wide-open threes last year, but what if defenses start putting a body within 12 feet of him? Dylan Windler can’t be the answer…can he? Is the solution a trade, preferably for someone who’s not Jae Crowder? And what’s the bench look like once Ricky Rubio returns from his torn ACL? Can he and LeVert play together? Will intense staggering be required?
Cleveland has flexibility next summer, is super young and houses four All-Star-caliber players. The future is bright. The present? That’s less defined.
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
In a nutshell: They can't even land the right friend of Luka Dončić.
Never mind quibbling over how the Dallas Mavericks lost Jalen Brunson. Did they fail to extend him? Did he always have his eye on bolting for the CAA Knicks? And if so, why didn't Dallas trade him at last year's deadline?
It doesn't matter. The Mavericks lost Brunson. That's the point. They lost him, their second-best player, and did nothing to adequately replace him.
Trading for Christian Wood came at a low opportunity cost, and he will add a layer of shot creation off the bench. What will the Mavs look like defensively if and when he, Dončić and Tim Hardaway Jr. share the floor? Let's not think about it.
Signing JaVale McGee was kind of fine. It was also sort of weird. Why go after him and Wood? And why give age-34 McGee a three-year deal with a player option? And a guaranteed starting spot? Maybe head coach Jason Kidd wants to mimic aspects of the Los Angeles Lakers' 2019-20 championship run. He was an assistant, and McGee was on the team—the same team that didn't play him a single second during those NBA Finals.
Spencer Dinwiddie can slide into the starting role next to Dončić and played well last season after coming over from the Washington Wizards. But the secondary ball-handling reps are devoid of potential solutions. My Frank Ntilikina optimism typically knows no bounds, but he's a three-and-D wing, not a creator. Josh Green cannot take on those reps. Believe the answer is Jaden Hardy at your own risk.
The Mavs couldn't even keep Goran Dragić, a friend of Dončić, away from the Chicago Bulls. They are instead left to (maybe) sign Facundo Campazzo—also a friend of Dončić, but one who is much, much worse than the other friend of Dončić—or wait on pins and needles for a Kemba Walker buyout. Congrats on following up a trip to the Western Conference Finals with a gap year, Dallas.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
In a nutshell: They have a whole lot of questions and imperfections for a contender.
The Denver Nuggets will enter the regular season as a trendy title pick among those who want you to know that they’re nervy and cool and not afraid to bellow "Nikola Jokic is actually a good defender!" until they’re as flushed in the face and biceps as Jokic himself is by the six-minute mark of the first quarter. (Related: The Nuggets might be my title pick.)
Riding with Denver isn’t that egregious on the surface. Jokic led a cast of role-player-only teammates to 48 wins last season. Better availability from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter will go a long way, and the additions of Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope deepen the defense while positioning the Nuggets to futz and fiddle with different combinations depending on matchups.
That’s a training-camp mindset, though. Everyone is in the best, leanest, most muscular shape of their entire lives. Reality checks come later—and they’re inevitable.
Brown’s offensive fit is not a given unless he’s downing ultra-wide-open threes (possible!) and always playing with Jokic (less so). This rotation still feels like it needs a wing to break out. And you can definitely trust Davon Reed or rookie Christian Braun to be that wing.
Imagineering different lineup combinations is fun until you remember head coach Michael Malone will invariably marry himself to all-bench units that feature one ball-handler (Bones Hyland) and way too much DeAndre Jordan. Zeke Nnaji apparently made a mysterious “giant leap” over the summer. The Nuggets trust him so much they waited a full four seconds before announcing they signed DJ at the start of free agency.
Michael Porter Jr. is still good for a couple of candid/passive-aggressive quotes every few weeks that make you wonder whether he’s happy in his role next to Jokic and Murray. I guess we’re also supposed to trust that a 24-year-old with chronic back issues will enjoy pristine availability. And that Murray himself will be the same player even though he’s working his way back from a torn ACL and hasn’t played regular-season basketball since April 2021.
Harder truth time: What’s more likely, the Nuggets win the 2023 title, or not enough question marks are answered in the affirmative and they’re left shopping MPJ for the requisite depth and defensive help they’re already supposed to have acquired?
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
In a nutshell: It's still too early.
Cade Cunningham has put the Detroit Pistons on the map. And they have given him more complementary help. (See: Bogdanovic, Bojan.) It might even be enough complementary help to guarantee the Pistons don't contend for a bottom-two record in the Eastern Conference unless they really, really, really want to. It is not nearly enough help to dub the 2022-23 Detroit Pistons "Grizzlies East."
Jaden Ivey is a one-stop entertainment factory. He is also a rookie point guard who must learn the ins and outs of playing off another ball-dominant floor general. Even if his fit next to Cunningham is seamless, his development won't be. Killian Hayes has tweaked his jump shot and just went scorched earth versus the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night, and preseason is obviously everything so he's officially on the superstar track, but who knows if he'll get there this season?
Detroit's frontcourt rotation is all kinds of confusing. Marvin Bagley III (out three to four weeks with a right knee injury) and Isaiah Stewart will play beside other bigs, because apparently, they are stretch bigs themselves capable of doing so. Alrighty then.
Rookie Jalen Duren will be good for one to two highlight reels on each side of the floor and 12 fouls per 36 minutes. Nerlens Noel will play, probably, at some point. Saddiq Bey will tantalize with an on-ball offensive skill set that is deeper than you think—and sometimes deeper than you'd like.
At their core, the Pistons are still rebuilding. And rebuilding teams don't win championships. Or many games. If they stumble into more victories than Chicago or Charlotte, then so be it. But otherwise, let Cade and friends marinate.
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
In a nutshell: Draymond Green, ahem, punched the culture into the fetal position.
Props to the Golden State Warriors. Even after losing Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II in free agency, they have very few pure basketball concerns surrounding their title defense.
Indeed, the bench unit gets younger and more inexperienced if they lean significantly on some combination of Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman. And yes, Jordan "The Ceiling Is Devin Booker With More Threes But What If It's Actually A Well-Rested Lou Williams?" Poole has yet to spearhead a league-average offense when Stephen Curry sits. And OK, we haven't seen a full season of Klay Thompson since 2018-19. And sure, there's something terrifying about Andrew Wiggins playing for his next contract with the self-assurance of a reigning champ who convinced at least one NBA executive he's the league's best defender. And, oh yeah, Stephen Curry is 34. And age-32 Draymond Green is without an extension.
But that's totally it. Until we get to The Punch.
New Media will tell you Green taking a swing at Poole is something that happens fairly frequently, that there are two sides to every story, and that the only truly aggrieved party is the Warriors' right to practice privacy. Back-In-My-Day Media will tell you that Green taking a swing at Poole is something that happens fairly frequently, that "Poole didn't even lose consciousness or walk uphill to practice only to then get slugged, so what's the big deal?," and that this generation couldn't survive practices from decades ago because they don't understand basketball is nothing without the threat of going comatose.
The Warriors, meanwhile, will tell you—and have told you—the culture is fractured. Steph sounded annoyed. Kevon Looney, too. Head coach Steve Kerr sounds as optimistic as a My Chemical Romance chorus.
Historically speaking, Green also seems to do something every third season or so that theoretically contributes to Golden State not winning a title. First, there was his Finals suspension (2015-16). Then, his mid-game spat with Kevin Durant (2018-19). In 2022-23, it's his socking Poole so accurately and hard that it reverberated throughout the next nine generations of Poole's family, to whom he also issued an apology. This advanced math is irrefutable. The Warriors aren't winning a title.
Houston Rockets
11 of 30
In a nutshell: Oklahoma City doesn’t own their pick. Still.
Young talent worth monitoring abounds up and down the Houston Rockets depth chart. Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün make up an exciting long-term core, and they are dotted by NBA-Twitter favorite Tari Eason, confident-as-hell Josh Christopher, extension-eligible Kevin Porter Jr. and the intriguing live-dribble passing, among other things, of TyTy Washington.
Some of us also value Usman Garuba’s ability to defend seven of the five positions on the floor. And somehow, this team also has the outside-in dependability of Eric Gordon, tough-as-nails Jae'Sean Tate and good-enough-to-crack-the-rotation-but-not-successfully-demand-a-trade KJ Martin. And let us not forget about Garrison “Why Pay Duncan Robinson $90 Million?” Mathews.
This team is deep. And unpredictable. And has punted on proven point guard play altogether for the second consecutive season. (Please don’t count Dennis Schröder’s layover as “proven point guard play.”) And, frankly, might get head coach Stephen Silas fired or extended.
More than anything, it shouldn’t be trying to win at all costs. The Rockets will decongest the rotation before long. Gordon, Martin and KPJ should all be up for grabs. Houston should experiment with every lineup possibility under the sun.
No, this isn’t a group that will necessarily tank its heart out. But it is the last year before draft obligations start conveying to Oklahoma City. If the Rockets don’t tank, they will at least not skirt being bad.
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
In a nutshell: The draft lottery is their championship.
Tyrese Haliburton extremists will insist the Indiana Pacers might be better than you think. (Related: It is I, a Tyrese Haliburton extremist.) But have you looked at the rest of this roster lately?
Myles Turner is entering Year 8 of his NBA career but somehow Year 9 of being in the NBA trade rumor mill. Nobody in league history has shot a higher clip on threes-while-looking-melancholy than Buddy Hield.
Isaiah Jackson is getting set to plumb the depths of his, er, on-ball skills. Color me equal shades of fascinated and frightened. But Jackson won't be starting. No, no, no. Why try optimizing Haliburton with a genuine lob threat when you can guarantee a starting spot to Jalen "Shot Threes Really Well For Seven Games Last Season" Smith?
Bennedict Mathurin is a (wildly talented) rookie. The Pacers will either give him the agency to make mistakes or give head coach Rick Carlisle the agency to curtail his minutes. Neither avenue results in more wins.
Also: Where are all the wings?!? (On the L.A. Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans and Lou Williams' dinner plate.) As currently constructed, Aaron Nesmith means something to this team. That, on top of everything else, settles it: This will be a banner year for the Pacers' lottery odds.
L.A. Clippers
13 of 30
In a nutshell: Depth is cool, but trustworthy star durability is even better.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have been on the L.A. Clippers for three seasons. During that time, they have appeared in a combined 104 regular-season and playoff games together.
That is…not ideal.
Leonard missed all of last season with a partially torn ACL in his right knee, which contorts the data. That’s also the point. Leonard hasn’t missed fewer than 15 games since 2016-17, his age-25 season. He now enters his age-31 season working his way back from a fairly major injury. This could be the setback that derails the all-galaxy version of him.
If it’s not, the Clippers aren’t above getting done in by their depth. Sure, they run 87 players deep. But Ivica Zubac and Moses Brown are the lone centers. Isaiah Hartenstein won’t be un-missed.
Positionless switchability is the dream nowadays. Have the Clippers achieved that? They have PG and Kawhi and then a bunch of wings or combo forwards who are best served handling slower, more methodical ball-handlers rather than detonative attackers. Offenses will flinch when they run a pick-and-roll only to have the initiator go from being defended by PG to Kawhi. They won’t get that same shiver down their spine going from Kawhi or PG to Marcus Morris Sr., Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, etc.
And if that turns out to be more strength than wart, are we sure the Clippers' point guard setup is copacetic? They don’t need a traditional floor-general hierarchy, but betting on the quartet of George, Leonard, Reggie Jackson and John Wall, perhaps with some Terance Mann sprinkled in, isn’t beyond reproach. Wall’s change of pace will be valuable. How will it look within the larger context of the team? And who’s their third-best player? Norman Powell? Sometimes, depth begets convolution.
Poking holes in the Clippers’ title case is an exercise in crafting mountains out of molehills. But championship pursuits can be swung by the little things, and some of their concerns aren’t so tiny.
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
In a nutshell: Championships aren’t won by overloading your roster with non-wings.
Any scenario in which the Los Angeles Lakers contend for a title begins with two conditions, the first of which is “Well, what if Anthony Davis and LeBron James play in a combined 130 or more games?”
This in itself is problematic. LeBron is still a superhuman, but age-38 seasons are best approached with the intent to load-manage—or at least not invite misfortune by having him clear 37 freaking minutes per game like last season. Anthony Davis may have vengeance in his eyes after two humdrum seasons (by his standards). But his durability is even more in question. It isn’t that he has a chronic injury; getting injured is his chronic injury.
Let’s suspend skepticism of the durability and availability from the Lakers’ two stars for a second. That brings us to the second issue: Russell Westbrook is still on this team. And not only is he still on this team, but the Lakers proceeded to jam-pack the roster with other guards, many of whom skew ball-dominant, in Patrick Beverley, Dennis Schröder, Lonnie Walker IV and the return, for real this time, of Kendrick Nunn.
Pardon my French: But what in the actual hell?
Because that's not enough, Anthony Davis is already passive aggressively complaining about playing the 5...in the third person. And Russell Westbrook is an early candidate to make All First Team I Don't Want To Be Here. LeBron will be subtweeting about fitting in or about fitting out or about signing Carmelo Anthony any day now.
And somehow, after a couple years’ worth of creating problems he’s yet to solve, general manager Rob Pelinka got an extension. Failing upward is a thing, folks. Too bad the Lakers can’t follow that same model to title contention. They'd be a dynasty in waiting.
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
In a nutshell: The Memphis Grizzlies looked at the rest of the Western Conference and still decided they could use fewer per-minute givens.
Is this a compliment masquerading as (uninventive) snark? You're gosh damn right!
After finishing with the NBA's second-best record(!) last year, and with Jaren Jackson Jr. slated to miss the start of the season with a right foot injury, the Grizzlies steered further into their big picture. Tyus Jones is back, but De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson are gone. Both ranked in the top seven of minutes played. In their stead, Memphis will turn to some combination of rookie Jake LaRavia, David Roddy and expanded roles for Ziaire Williams, Santi Aldama and John Konchar.
I respect this organizational flex. The Grizzlies have earned the right to bet on their internal grooming. They just won 56 games despite Ja Morant missing 25, and neither Anderson nor Melton played mission-critical roles during the postseason.
However!
The Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns aren't going anywhere. The L.A. Clippers and Denver Nuggets are healthier. The Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans are coming. The Sacramento Kings don't look like a pushover. The Dallas Mavericks...still have Luka Dončić.
In the face of what figures to be a brutal playoff race, the Grizzlies continue to prioritize the longer haul. That's admirable. It also means they've done nothing to cap the number of unknowns, what-ifs and games out of which Dillon Brooks will shoot them.
Miami Heat
16 of 30
In a nutshell: They’re worse than last year.
P.J. Tucker was kind of, sort of, incredibly important to how the Miami Heat defended and crashed the offensive glass this year. They will miss him, terribly, without exception.
But this isn’t just about his departure. There is a trickle-down effect. Caleb Martin is a viable replacement…until the second round of the playoffs or so. And by putting him in the starting lineup, your top-two bench players are Victor Oladipo and then…Max Strus? Dewayne Dedmon? Gabe Vincent?
Duncan Robinson still exists. And Ömer Yurtseven might play. Haywood Highsmith is generating preseason buzz. Clearly this Heat team is stuh-acked.
Maybe depth won’t be the issue. It wasn’t last year. The Heat mine hidden gems like Jimmy Butler overcharges for coffee. But the top of the roster isn’t exactly a given. Kyle Lowry is in life-altering shape and was reportedly dealing with personal stuff off the court. I’m glad he’s OK. Genuinely. But he turns 37 in March. Butler just turned 33. Neither is a stranger to missing time, and Miami’s half-court offense placed in the 32nd percentile when it played with Herro last season.
On the rare occasion the Heat were able to play Bam Adebayo with all three of Butler, Herro and Lowry, they notched a half-court offensive rating in the 3rd percentile. Bam will help by being more aggressive on some nights—just enough to tempt turned-a-corner optimism. Eventually, though, you’ll remember that “Adebayo” is an anagram for “7-of-13” and that this Heat team needs a trade to compete with the tippy-top of the East (i.e. Milwaukee Bucks).
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
In a nutshell: Their depth is…confusing.
No contender in the Eastern Conference—or, for that matter, the league—may offer more stability than the Milwaukee Bucks. That’s among the many, many, many perks to having Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But Milwaukee’s stability feels…top-heavy. They have Giannis. They have regular-season step-back-jumper extraordinaire Jrue Holiday. They have Khris Middleton (still out with a wrist injury). They have Pat Connaughton. And Brook Lopez. And Bobby Portis.
Things get iffy after that.
Will the Bucks be too reliant on age-36 Wesley Matthews? Can George Hill stay healthy? Do they suddenly need Jevon Carter? Is there anyone who can unlock smaller lineups with Giannis as the lone big, independent of Portis or Lopez? Do the Bucks even want to use those lineups before the playoffs?
How much juice, if any, does Serge Ibaka have left? Did this team have the depth necessary to rationalize funneling their best spending tool, the mini mid-level, into a 35-year-old Joe Ingles working his way back off a torn left ACL who probably won’t be ready until 2023? Heck, can Lopez even be counted among the givens after battling a back issue for almost all of last season? Could Milwaukee need MarJon Beauchamp to contribute as a rookie? Where does Jordan Nwora fit?
As far as “Your favorite NBA title contender sucks” arguments go, this one is pretty rosy. On any given night, though, the Bucks could struggle to stretch six certainties deep. Giannis' dominance is a formality. Theirs is not.
Minnesota Timberwolves
18 of 30
In a nutshell: Uh, what if this doesn’t work?
Star power drives title contention, and the Minnesota Timberwolves have noticeably more of it than most. If Anthony Edwards effectively builds on his sophomore campaign, this team could legitimately have three top-25 players. That may not be the most likely outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility.
Scant few others can say the same. Maybe the Cleveland Cavaliers. And the Phoenix Suns. Perhaps even the Philadelphia 76ers, depending on how drunk you are with Tyrese Maxey optimism.
Anyhow, the addition of Rudy Gobert pretty much guarantees a top-10 defense. Karl-Anthony Towns’ range—both on- and off-ball—ensures the offense should be fine. Head coach Chris Finch is a clipboard-carrying mastermind if things get too clunky. This will work. In the regular season. Probably.
Conversely, nothing inspires confidence in a team’s championship stock quite like surrendering control of five first-rounders (one swap), three rotation players and this past June’s No. 22 pick (Walker Kessler) for an over-30 star who plays the same position as one of your incumbent stars—the same incumbent star who you turned around and extended on a four-year, $224 million supermax.
Don’t worry, though. The Timberwolves absolutely have enough shooting to make this work—so long as Kyle Anderson’s 154 made triples since 2019-20, Jaden McDaniels’ career 3.4 three-point attempts per game and the uncomfortably important Taurean Prince count as “enough shooting.”
And even if they don’t, at least the Wolves have enough ball-handlers to run the offense from the outside-in. There’s Ant, Jaylen Nowell and contract-year D’Angelo Russell, who most definitely doesn’t have to worry about his place on this team beyond this season, nope, nope, nope. And then there’s…Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin, Austin Rivers and Bryn Forbes.
On the bright side, if the Timberwolves find they’re more experimental and unfinished than contender, at least they have the assets to make a trade without including one of their core pla—
New Orleans Pelicans
19 of 30
In a nutshell: Let’s see this group play a season together at something resembling full strength, shall we?
Getting high off the New Orleans Pelicans’ supply isn’t hard. They are duh-eep.
Zion Williamson is back and looks like a lean bulldozer. The offensive ceiling on lineups featuring him with Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Anybody, maybe even you, does not exist.
New Orleans’ defense improved a great deal after last season’s 3-16 start, particularly in transition. It is built to muck stuff up this year. Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy and Dyson Daniels will smother and disrupt and star in nightmares. Larry Nance Jr. unlocks some genuinely drool-inducing lineups. A healthy Jaxson Hayes offers perimeter mobility on defense. Devonte’ Graham could have a bounce-back year. This team is going to gobsmack a lot of opponents—and is already an edgy top-four-seed pick among the NBA intelligentsia.
How about we pump the brakes? Let’s see Zion last the entire season first. He was an All-NBA candidate in 2020-21 but has missed more than 62 percent of the Pelicans’ regular-season games for his career. Durability is a concern.
So, too, is striking functional balance with the rest of the roster. Ingram must now adapt to playing beside two shot creators in Zion and McCollum. He’s proved capable of shape-shifting, but it’s still an adjustment.
How will lineups with Zion, McCollum and Valanciunas defend? Do the Pelicans downsize when they close games? Their best shooter is McCollum. Their second-best is Graham. Their third-best is whoever most recently trained with Fred Vinson. Is that enough? And finally: Does the absolute best version of these Pelicans justify their hype? Or is this merely a rush to coronate what’s still unfinished?
New York Knicks
20 of 30
In a nutshell: Their ceiling is the middle.
Nothing quite typifies the New York Knicks' immediate outlook like traveling great, potentially tampering-filled lengths to sign something like the 49th- to 61st-best player in the NBA. They just had the offseason of a team that aspires to perfectly mime the last six years of Charlotte Hornets basketball.
This organization can't even not overpay for Donovan Mitchell correctly. Do they deserve praise for not almost emptying their asset clip on a star who wouldn't elevate them to title contention without another big-time addition? Or did they just get lucky that the Cleveland Cavaliers came in with an equally, if not more, aggressive offer that piqued the Utah Jazz's interest and spared the Knicks from going all-in on the seventh seed? Who's to say?
Plenty of tantalizing youth is peppered up and down the roster. That inoculates the Knicks against complete aimlessness. They have an infrastructure around which to assemble the future.
This, of course, assumes Tom Thibodeau will lean on the youth. And aside from RJ Barrett, that is a bonkers assumption to make. Deep down, even the most intractable apologists know Thibs will ride Julius Randle's shot selection, Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier into oblivion while Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley average minutes in the mid- to late-teens.
To be fair, cannonballing into prospect development won't improve the Knicks' current win total. To be even more fair, looking at the older heads Thibs will inevitably favor, it might.
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
In a nutshell: SamPrestiLaserBeamEyes.jpeg
Picturing a world in which the Oklahoma City Thunder finish their season after National Step in the Puddle and Splash Your Friends Day (January 11), let alone contend for a title, is exceedingly difficult.
There is nothing inherently wrong or aimless with their rebuilding approach. They are playing the draft-and-asset odds. And they have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who sounds content and informed and not at all like he's window-shopping through the catalog of teams monitoring his situation—as if being 24 and under contract for the next half-decade with a team that doesn't play in California or New York is a "situation" that warrants monitoring.
But I digress...
The Thunder will tank their butts off. And not just because it's in general manager Sam Presti's DNA, but because No. 2 pick and perfect-SGA-complement Chet Holmgren will miss all of 2022-23 with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot.
Pretend the Thunder will compete for W's if you must. We know how this ends: with OKC listing Victor Wembanyama as "DNP - On loan to Metropolitans 92" on their scorecard and with mysterious midseason shutdowns.
SGA is currently dealing with a sprained MCL. By February, he'll be missing games with a chipped toenail. Lu Dort will get benched for being so strong that Oklahoma City is worried about opponents suffering too many ouchies on his drives.
Josh Giddey (lost a Timothée Chalamet lookalike contest and needs time to cope) will join the DNP brigade. Kenrich Williams (too positionless; his versatility gives Mark Daigneault a headache), too. Jalen Williams (grabbed Jaylin Williams' jersey by mistake), as well. Darius Bazley—well, he'll play 50 minutes per 48-minute game.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
In a nutshell: Guard play matters.
The Orlando Magic are yet another team that falls under the “Too Early” umbrella. They have the skeleton of something special with Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner, but right now they’re good enough to maybe, possibly, potentially make the Charlotte Hornets sweat their monopoly on the 10th seed.
Beefing up their guard play will be pivotal in the months (and years) to come. Banchero can absolutely run an offense. Of this, I am sure. But the guard situation is lackluster.
Nobody should be disembarking the Jalen Suggs bandwagon. Not yet. But he’s out for a while with a right knee sprain and more suited to the off-guard role. Markelle Fultz is on the shelf, as well (fractured left toe). And while he brings more table-setting, his ceiling will be limited so long as he’s not a threat to nail jumpers the defense isn't daring him to take or finagle his way to the free-throw line.
R.J. Hampton has a nifty cadence to his game. I’m on the verge of selling my stock anyway. Cole Anthony is basically the living embodiment of “Heat Check” with slightly more passing.
A dearth of guards who can break down the defense and effectively steward the offense for everyone else will result in some pretty funky lineups. The Magic have already rolled out Franz Wagner at the 2. That might become a staple. It’s only a matter of time before they deploy an all-big unit featuring Banchero at point, perhaps once published author Jonathan Isaac makes his return to basketball.
This self-exploration will be valuable down the line. Immediately, the Magic are more likely to party-crash the race for Victor Wembanyama (by design) than come within striking distance of a top-six Eastern Conference finish.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
In a nutshell: The What-Ifs are overwhelming.
Try as the Philadelphia 76ers might to emulate the 2017-18 Houston Rockets, what if they can't?
What if age-29 Eric Gordon and age-32 Trevor Ariza don't wander through that door? What if P.J. Tucker actually plays like he's 37?
What if head coach Doc Rivers suffers from another rampant case of "Playing That Former Big of Mine" instead of Paul Reed or Tucker-at-the-5 arrangements during Joel Embiid-less minutes?
What if the ball doesn't get back to James Harden? What if he stops cutting carbs?
What if Embiid is as banged-up as he was last postseason because he spent the regular season propping up the Sixers after Harden stopped cutting carbs?
What if De'Anthony Melton is asked to dribble? What if Matisse Thybulle doesn't stop freelancing as a stonemason during games? What if Tyrese Maxey doesn't play well enough to carry Harden in the playoffs?
Be careful, Sixers fans. It's a minefield out there.
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
In a nutshell: Their soul seems broken.
The atmosphere surrounding a team that won a league-best 64 games last season and brings back all six of its best players shouldn't be this bad. Yet, for now, the 2022-23 Phoenix Suns are depressing and confusing as hell.
Deandre Ayton is feeling either motivated or jilted or both after having to go outside the organization for his max-contract offer. He and head coach Monty Williams may or may not have each other's phone numbers to boot. We can't be sure.
Jae Crowder isn't with the team while the Suns work to find a trade. If his losing a starting spot to Cameron Johnson didn't destroy their leverage, then this certainly will.
In the meantime, the fate of Phoenix's bench lies with some combination of Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, Jock Landale, Bismack Biyombo, Dario Saric and maybe Ish Wainright. If only the NBA had something called a mini mid-level exception the Suns could have dangled in free agency rather than rummaging through the bargain bin while getting held hostage by Kevin Durant's botched trade request...
Who needs bankable depth, though, when Chris Paul is only 37? And when this will be the year Mikal Bridges more aggressively jacks threes and attacks on-ball, for real, we swear? And when you have Duane Washington Jr. on a two-way contract?
Granted, with all their own first-round picks and digestible deals galore, the Suns are built to make a trade. Awesome. They will be so dangerous and deep once they materially shift the makeup of the current roster in the middle of the season. How reassuring and not-at-all fragile.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
In a nutshell: This movie is just a sequel with different supporting cast members.
Did the Portland Trail Blazers really just pivot out of a non-contender headlined by two small guards and tank their asses off only to meticulously maneuver their way into…a non-contender headlined by two small guards?
Building around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum isn’t the same as building around Lillard and Anfernee Simons. It’s also not drastically different.
General manager Joe Cronin has at least constructed a nucleus with the defensive oomph to finish better than 27th to 30th in points allowed per possession. Gary Payton II is a human eclipse. Josh Hart is still First Team All Shoots Worse From Three Than You Think, but he guards bigger than he stands. Jerami Grant can toggle between red-carpet one-on-one assignments and helping. Nassir Little and Justise Winslow inject their own levels of nasty.
Even so, the deja vu is real.
Two small guards as your primary building blocks? Check.
Questionable shooting on the wings? Check.
Complete absence of backup playmaking beyond staggering your two small guards/primary building blocks? Check.
Jusuf Nurkic in the middle with unproven, unspectacular and/or unknown depth behind him? Check again.
It’s a good thing the Blazers’ impromptu tankfest last season culminated in Shaedon Sharpe with the No. 7 pick. They’d feel an awful lot like Washington Wizards East without him.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
In a nutshell: You don't get a participation trophy for making the play-in tournament.
Imagine subjecting your fanbase to so much recurring emotional and psychological turmoil that they (deservedly) parade around the streets at the mere prospect of reaching 40 wins and bagging the 10th seed.
This is what the Sacramento Kings have done.
Let's be clear: This is not a low blow directed at Kings fans. I have interacted with many of you on Twitter and in direct messages and on podcasts. You freaking rule.
The organization does not. Failure is ingrained into the franchise's DNA. Its 16-year playoff drought spans not one or two but near countless regimes (read: culprits).
Success for this team isn't even measured in title hopes or, hell, top-six-seed hopes anymore. Success is actually protecting the first-round pick you gave up for Kevin Huerter. It is signing Malik Monk instead of Lonnie Walker IV. It is hiring a head coach who maybe, possibly, if the Kings are lucky, can guide De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and a crap load of complementary shooting as sky-high as 25th in defensive efficiency.
Optimism is afoot throughout Sacramento entering the regular season. Rightfully so. Mike Brown's press conferences are worth nudging up the Kings' win-total projection by, like, six. But October is not February. It isn't even November. We may not care to admit it, but we all know Brown's emphatic screams of delight will devolve into cries for help by 2023.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
In a nutshell: The tank is on.
Dealing Dejounte Murray signaled the San Antonio Spurs were about to embark on a full-scale rebuild. Additional pingpong balls would be their Larry O'Brien Trophy.
They have not disappointed.
Head coach Greg Poppovich is currently approaching this season like it'll be a free-for-all. When he was asked last month who would start at point guard, he responded tongue-in-cheek and with overwhelming accuracy, per Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News: "Jakob Poeltl is our 5. We'll go from there."
Hell yeah. Much of this debate has been settled in the weeks since, but quasi-resolutions don't actually make the Spurs any better. Their offense, in particular, wants for self-starters who can generate looks for others. The player currently best suited to fill that role is Josh Primo, Tre Jones or front office executive Manu Ginóbili.
Expect the Spurs to experiment and play fast in lieu of proven creation. And definitely don't expect them to win. They are already set up to be one of the league's worst teams, and their draft-lottery stock only stands to mushroom should they deal Poeltl or Josh Richardson at the deadline.
If Jeremy Sochan tries out more hair colors than the Spurs have wins, it'll be a successful season in San Antonio.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
In a nutshell: Half-court offense matters, too.
So, let's get this straight: The Toronto Raptors watched last year's offense rank 26th in half-court efficiency—27th after the trade deadline—and then decided to add literally no one who helps them improve upon that mark? Got it.
Planning around more improvement from Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet is fine. Expecting all of it to be more than incremental is risky. Barnes has the best chance of making a massive leap, because he's a sophomore. He's also working off a higher-than-usual rookie baseline. Explosion is not the default.
Alternative avenues of improvement feel even flimsier. Every year is the year that on-ball OG Anunoby is fully weaponized. Dalano Banton killed it during preseason. That naturally means he's a savior. Malachi Flynn just suffered a broken bone in his face and was never considered among the most likely answers.
Toronto is a lot deeper overall than last year and can weather the regular season wreaking havoc on defense, getting out in transition and remaining omnipresent on the offensive glass. But if they're going to cross the threshold from 48-to-52-win team into genuine contender territory, they need a jolt of half-court creation—even if it doesn't come in the form of an ultra-switchable whatdoyacallhim standing between 6'7" and 6'9".
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
In a nutshell: "I can go lower." -Dennis on It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
Left alone, the Utah Jazz are nowhere near title contention. We could simply stop there and move on. But the Jazz have been looped into the NBA's tankathon. A cursory scan of their roster makes that seem counterintuitive.
Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton and Jarred Vanderbilt would all crack the rotation of any other team. Walker Kessler is a rookie but big and long and might muck up stuff on defense. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jared Butler offer on-ball shiftiness. Ochai Agbaji, another rookie, can really sling it. Talen Horton-Tucker will do two to seven things per game that tempt you to believe.
Leave this group untouched, and they're winning enough games to catapult Utah into purgatory—not enough wins to broach the play-in, not enough losses to photoshop Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson into Jazz jerseys.
Team CEO Danny Ainge won't let that stand. He will wheel and deal the Jazz to rock-bottom. If not, he will surely instruct head coach Will Hardy to jack up the number of "DNPs" for impact players.
The tank-off between Ainge and Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti, specifically, will be epically brazen. And it knows no unspoken start date. The Jazz's controlled demolition can continue at any moment.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
In a nutshell: Mediocrity doesn't win championships.
The Washington Wizards left no room over the offseason to misinterpret their commitment to the middle.
Re-signing Bradley Beal was non-negotiable. They didn't trade him, and he didn't want to leave. Not everything must be boiled down to count-the-rings culture.
At the same time, Beal was coming off perhaps his worst season as a pro. His efficiency fell off a cliff from just about everywhere outside four feet, and he was shut down in February to have left wrist surgery. The Wizards responded by giving him a five-year supermax in free agency (which, fine)...with a player option on the final season (OK)...and a no-trade clause (what?!?). No word on if he also received a majority ownership stake.
This probably has more long-term implications than immediate consequences. But Washington is making an awfully large bet Beal will return to fringe-All-NBA form.
And even if he does, its season still hinges on Kristaps Porzingis remaining healthy (yeesh) and one of their recent draft picks—Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura, Corey Kispert, Johnny Davis—playing well enough to be considered the current or eventual third-best player on a better version of the Washington Beals.
Failing that kind of development, the third-best player on the Wizards is Kyle Kuzma or Monté Morris. And that's a recipe to win 36 games, not a title.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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