Season Predictions for NBA's Top Stars In Contract Years
Few NBA players suffer from a shortage of motivation. Merely gaining entry into to a 450-person league in a world populated by 8 billion people requires an inherent, borderline pathological competitiveness. If you aren't internally driven, you're never going to make it.
Add to that the day-to-day friction that comes from young players trying to prove they belong and older ones striving to show they aren't ready to step aside, and you have another highly potent source of motivation. Don't forget the way success can increase a player's wealth and status in the form of a fat new contract.
A handful of stars enter the 2022-23 season with more on the line than most. These contract-year players will play this year looking to prove their worth ahead of free agency next summer.
The impact of a contract year is difficult to guess. Some players respond to the added pressure by balling out and earning lucrative new deals, while others struggle with the added distraction and the fear of what an injury might cost them. A few might be disgruntled that their teams haven't already locked them up on new multiyear agreements. These things can shake out in wildly different ways depending on a player's personality and team situation.
Here, we'll take a crack at predicting what's ahead this season for the biggest names heading into contract years.
Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Lakers
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Sadly, the range of potential contract-year outcomes for Russell Westbrook looks pretty narrow. After a 2021-22 season marred by a career-worst box plus/minus and his lowest scoring average since 2009-10, the former MVP isn't a good bet to bounce back.
The aging curve alone augurs poorly for Westbrook, who'll turn 34 less than a month into the season. His temperament, which undeniably contributed to success in the past, is also now more hindrance than help.
Russ seems hardwired to rage against the dying of the light. Going into the 15th year of a career defined by a relentless refusal to change his style of play, Westbrook isn't going to finally embrace compromise or concede that he's no longer the same team-lifting, opponent-demolishing force he once was.
A repeat of last season, in which Westbrook failed to fit into the Los Angeles Lakers' schemes on either end and took the blame (fair or not) for the team's disappointing performance, is very much on the table. Worse outcomes, like a buyout or salary-dump trade to a lottery team, are also in play. That the Lakers brought in Dennis Schröder and Patrick Beverley to join the returning Kendrick Nunn as backcourt playmakers suggests the team is preparing to further marginalize Westbrook or move on from him entirely.
An escape from Los Angeles might not be the worst thing for Westbrook if his new team cares little enough about winning to let him run wild and put up numbers in line with his triple-double days in Oklahoma City. But there's also the bleak possibility that Westbrook can no longer even elevate a team from "poor" to "above average" like he could at his peak.
Russ is making $47.1 million in the final season of his max extension. It isn't totally out of the question that he'll embrace a defensive mindset, buy into role-playing duties and add value to a Lakers team that needs contributions from all parties involved to escape play-in territory. But it's highly unlikely.
Westbrook is probably too proud to accept a buyout, which could cost him millions of dollars. The most plausible outcomes are another brutal, legacy-tarnishing year fighting against change or a trade to a team that will only want the first-round picks thrown in as sweeteners.
It'll be a surprise if Westbrook's next contract includes more than one guaranteed year or a salary above $20 million per season.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
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Even at age 30, there's still no question that Kyrie Irving is a game-changing offensive dynamo. His skill and scoring efficiency give him a chance to be the best player on the floor, regardless of who else is out there with him.
Irving set or tied career bests in both points per game and three-point percentage last year. He is the only player to post a true shooting percentage north of 58.0 percent and a usage rate above 29.0 percent in each of the last six seasons.
When on the court, Irving is excellent. What complicates his contract-year status and future earning potential is the amount of time he spends off of it—not to mention his reputation as someone whose commitment to his team and teammates has long been in question.
Irving has played in only 103 of a possible 226 games since joining the Brooklyn Nets, with absences caused by injury, personal reasons and his refusal to be vaccinated against COVID-19. It's difficult to imagine that even a season of perfect attendance and model behavior would convince league executives the potential reward of a massive multiyear deal for Irving would outweigh the risk. His track record indicating the opposite is just too long.
It's telling that Irving picked up his $36.9 million player option for 2022-23 because no organization—including his own—was comfortable handing over the five-year, $245 million deal for which he would have been eligible.
The Nets have more combustion potential than any other team. The whole operation nearly exploded this past offseason when Irving and Kevin Durant were on the trade block and changes in the front office and on the bench seemed imminent. But they also possess the talent to scorch the league and win a title. That mixture of clearly visible pitfalls and intoxicating upside applies as aptly to Irving as the Nets.
Based on recent history, it feels safe to say that Irving's contract year will include somewhere between 30 and 50 games of brilliant play, three or four foot-in-mouth quotes, a few weeks lost to injury and a couple of instances where his list of priorities doesn't seem to have "help the Nets win games" anywhere near the top.
Fortunately, the Los Angeles Lakers have only four players under contract in 2023-24 and could sign Irving to a deal worth upwards of $30 million per season in free agency. They kicked the tires on Irving over the summer and may be the only team desperate enough for high-end talent to commit to someone who has spent the last several years constantly reinforcing the narrative that he cannot be relied upon.
Irving will play out this year with the Nets and then land with the Lakers on a two-year deal totaling roughly $80 million with a player option on the second season.
James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers
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The eye test told on James Harden last season, as his lack of burst and reduced ability to finish around the basket screamed "physical decline." Statistically, 2021-22 was also Harden's least productive since he was a reserve with the Oklahoma City Thunder. He put up his lowest box plus/minus, player efficiency rating and true shooting percentage in more than a decade.
And yet, optimism is creeping in ahead of a pivotal 2022-23 campaign that could see Harden re-enter free agency next summer by declining his $35.6 million player option.
All bets are off when it comes to Harden showing up for key playoff games, but it stands to reason that we'll see the 10-time All-Star improve on his efforts of a season ago. For starters, he seems to be in his best physical and mental shape in quite a while.
The mostly well-founded concern that Harden is slipping physically could also have the added effect of lowering expectations. The Sixers themselves have made the point that Harden isn't the same guy who won MVP in 2017-18 and operated as an elite offense unto himself. That lower bar will be easier to clear, creating the perception that Harden is exceeding expectations.
Surrounded by shooters and defenders that put this year's Sixers on par with some of the very best Houston Rockets teams he played for at his peak, Harden also has the benefit of no longer needing to do everything himself. Joel Embiid's presence means Harden won't be every defense's focal point, and the pick-and-roll interplay between those two—the best in the league during their time together a year ago—means Harden can dominate games merely by setting up his MVP-caliber teammate.
The days of Harden averaging 30-plus points per game are over, but he has an inside track to scoring somewhere in the range of 20-23 points per game on improved efficiency while leading the league in assists. That'll be enough to justify declining his player option for 2023-24, inking a max-level deal with the Sixers and probably triggering another tampering investigation.
Kristaps Porziņģis, Washington Wizards
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If Kristaps Porziņģis declines his $36 million player option for 2023-24 to sign a long-term contract, it'll almost be like he's hitting free agency for the first time. That's strange for someone entering his eighth season and playing for his third team, but KP has never had options like he should next summer.
His five-year, $158 million contract from the Dallas Mavericks seemed like a foregone conclusion after he arrived there via trade from the New York Knicks. The offer, which no team could beat, was on the table in the first moments of 2019 free agency.
With a torn ACL still visible in the rear-view mirror, Porziņģis was never going to turn that money down. And Dallas, having dealt away draft capital and young talent, was always going to offer it.
This year, there's far less certainty. What Porziņģis does in his first full season with the Washington Wizards will go a long way toward determining whether he's a reliable second star or merely a solid starter whose injury history and lack of mobility on defense mean he's more of a floor-stretching specialist than anything else.
It's encouraging that Porziņģis looked more like the former in his late-season stretch with Washington last year. In 17 games, he averaged 22.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks with a 47.5/36.7/87.1 shooting split. Most importantly, he showed a level of durability that could make it much easier for teams to trust they'll get a good return on their investment.
From March 6 on, Porziņģis missed only one of a possible 18 games and suited up for both ends of four back-to-back sets. The sprained ankle he suffered against the Charlotte Hornets on Oct. 10 triggered some "here we go again" hand-wringing, but with so much on the line, this is a bet Porziņģis will play at least 60 games for the first time since 2016-17.
Because he isn't a switchable defender at center and doesn't have the heft to punish smaller opponents in the post on offense, Porziņģis profiles as a sub-max earner even if he replicates his strong numbers with Washington last year. With that said, he's in position to produce at a level that could earn some All-Star consideration as long as he can stay on the floor often enough.
That should make it easy to opt out of $36 million in favor of a three-year deal worth somewhere in the $90 million range.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through 2021-22 season. Salary info via Spotrac.
