B/R Predicts Top 25 Bigs for 2022-23 NBA Season
We're almost there, hoops fans. We've almost made it to the NBA Top 100.
Tomorrow in the B/R app, Bleacher Report's Top 100 player predictions for the 2022-23 season drops, and all week long we've been rolling out positional rankings based on our final order.
Check out Stephen Curry, Ja Morant and our Top 25 Guards, as well as the method behind our madness here.
Here you'll find Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum and our Top 25 Wings.
Today we're going big.
Hit the comments to tell us who your top guards, wings and bigs are for this season, and check back tomorrow for B/R NBA 100.
No. 25-21
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25. Paolo Banchero
Paolo Banchero was mostly lauded for his high-end scoring potential at Duke, but truly reaching his ceiling may depend on his ability to distribute. In his lone season as a Blue Devil, Banchero was second on his team in assist percentage (among rotation players).
24. Clint Capela
Clint Capela is one of the better rebounders in the league. He protects the basket well as a shot-blocker, but he doesn't have the offensive range to stretch the floor for the Atlanta Hawks.
23. Julius Randle
This does not exaggerate just how bad Julius Randle was last season. The shot selection and shot making, the defense, the demeanor—it was a masterclass in comprehensive regression. So much so, not even a strong closing kick softens the blow.
Now, this might hyperbolize the bleakness of his outlook. Randle has value as a speedballing playmaker and showed in 2021 he possesses a defensive pulse. If he can buy into a second- or third-in-command role that includes more picking-and-popping and rim-diving, he'll scrap and claw his way back into the top-50 overall discourse.
22. Al Horford
Al Horford is a rock-solid, multi-position big who was a vital part of the Boston Celtics' run to the NBA Finals last season. Horford posted 12 points and 9.3 rebounds in last year's playoffs while shooting 48 percent from three on over four attempts over 23 games. At 36 years old, though, the question is how many seasons he has left at that level.
—Pincus
21. Myles Turner
Turner's next home could ultimately decide his place on our Top 100 list, as his usage will be cut if traded to a contender. If he stays on a rebuilding Pacers squad, Turner will almost certainly top his career-best 14.5 points per game while flashing All-Defensive team potential.
No. 20-16
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20. Jonas Valančiūnas
Can a player be underrated for the entirety of his career? Asking for Jonas Valančiūnas. He was ranked as low as 99 by one participant in our Top 100. That’s unacceptable. (Kudos to the optimism-drunk colleague who slotted him at No. 24.)
Valančiūnas doesn’t provide the higher-volume stretch of Nikola Vučević and Kristaps Porziņģis—the two players ahead of him on this list. But he does provide stretch. He shot 36.1 percent on over two attempts from deep last season. Vooch may have him beat as a connective passer, but JV’s overall scoring has more depth than this little grouping. His pump-fakes are so convincing, I’ve fallen off my couch just watching them. And his bandwidth for abusing everyone from smalls to properly sized players down low, both on the block and the glass, remains underappreciated. I am outraged. (But not really.)
—Favale
19. Nikola Vučević
Nikola Vučević averaged 21.3 points, 11.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists, while shooting 37.3 percent from deep over three seasons from 2018-19 to 2020-21. Then, each of those numbers tailed off in 2021-22, as Vooch struggled to adjust to life alongside two high-volume scorers in DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. Maintaining his value going forward may depend on being more of a gap-filler who can scale his game down a bit.
—Bailey
18. Jerami Grant
Jerami Grant now exists inside a wonderfully gray area, hovering somewhere between quintessential role player and fringe star.
This is a distinct progression from where he sat a couple of years ago. His stay with the Pistons showcased previously unexplored depths of his offense. He has on-ball scoring oomph to partner with his floor-running and standstill shooting, and his defense translates to one-on-one assignments and disruptive help. Grant’s value remains bolted to its scalability, but it’s now elevated by possibility.
—Favale
17. Kristaps Porziņģis
The biggest question for Kristaps Porziņģis is health. He's an elite NBA scorer at 7'3", but he's struggled to stay healthy with various knee ailments.
The Washington Wizards have a talented squad, but it's been some time since the group has played together at full strength. Health willing, Bradly Beal may get a chance to show what they can do together.
—Pincus
16. John Collins
The Atlanta Hawks need John Collins to stretch the floor and defend. His scoring output has dipped the last two seasons–which may be why the team was shopping him in trade over the offseason. A strong year from Collins could help catapult the Hawks up the standings in the East.
—Pincus
No. 15-11
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15. Jaren Jackson Jr.
A year after leading the league in blocks per game and making his first All-Defense team, Jaren Jackson Jr.’s return date from an offseason surgery on his foot remains up in the air. When healthy, the theoretical combination of rim protection (already in place) and three-point shooting (still sporadic) makes him one of the game’s most intriguing bigs.
—Bailey
14. Domantas Sabonis
Domantas Sabonis is sort of the off-brand version of Nikola Jokic, which may sound like a slight, until you remember that Jokic has a strong “best player in the world” argument. Over the last three seasons, Sabonis has averaged 19.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists while shooting 54.9 percent from the field.
—Bailey
13. Draymond Green
After two years away from the playoffs, concerns about a decline for Draymond Green started to surface, but he was every bit as indispensable as the mid-20s version of himself on the way to the 2022 title. Thanks to his DPOY-level defense, passing and timely cutting, the playoff Warriors were plus-8.9 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor and minus-1.7 with him off.
—Bailey
12. Jarrett Allen
General impressions of Jarrett Allen skew toward rim-protecting, screen-setting, play-finishing big man. That prevailing sentiment undersells him.
Allen’s defense and mobility on the backline contribute to Evan Mobley’s capacity to be, well, everywhere else. And while his offense is largely predicated on the primary playmakers beside him, he has diversified his portfolio to include reactive slips, one- and two-dribble decision-making in space, and an operable hook shot (52.8 percent on 127 attempts).
The crux of Allen’s game may be anchored in tradition, but he augments it with contemporary gadgets and gizmos that render him closer to a Deandre Ayton-type than Clint Capela (No. 24 on this list) facsimile.
—Favale
11. DeAndre Ayton
Deandre Ayton is one of the best two-way centers in the league. He protects the basket without fouling and can score efficiently in the post against some of the top defenders in the league.
The Phoenix Suns don't always prioritize getting Ayton the ball, and his contract saga over the last year seemed to fracture chemistry. But if the Suns can get their groove back, Ayton's importance cannot be understated.
—Pincus
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No. 10-6
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10. Evan Mobley
Cracking the top-40 NBA players list (spoiler!) while not even winning Rookie of the Year is almost unheard of from a second-year player, yet Mobley is that good. He's already an elite defender in nearly every area, combining his footspeed with a 7'4" wingspan to wreak havoc all over the court. His high release point is tough to contest, and Mobley spoke on media day about working on his three-point shot and perimeter play this summer.
The 21-year-old will eventually become Cleveland's best player, which is saying a lot given that Mobley will be playing in a starting lineup that featured three All-Stars last year.
—Swartz
9. Bam Adabayo
At 25 years old, Bam Adebayo is already a perennial All-Defense contender who can both protect the rim and defend guards and wings on the switch.
Dynamic finishing and underrated passing are what truly set him apart, though. Outside of a long-range jumper, Bam has every box checked.
—Bailey
8. Pascal Siakam
Fans might overlook Pascal Siakam, but he was named to the All-NBA Third Team for a reason. Siakam is a physical, aggressive scorer with great length defensively. The 6'9" forward averaged 22.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists a game last year, filling the box score. It's no coincidence the Toronto Raptors went on a run once Siakam got healthy after a shoulder injury.
—Pincus
7. Zion Williamson
One of the most electrifying and prolific scorers basketball has ever seen (he trails only Michael Jordan and Joel Embiid in career points per possession), Zion Williamson appeared ready to dominate again with a trimmed-down physique at New Orleans Pelicans media day.
If coach Willie Green completely unleashes the point forward game Zion showed at times during 2020-21, his place in our rankings could look like a cold take as early as this season.
—Bailey
6. Rudy Gobert
The Minnesota Timberwolves gave up a massive haul of prospects, picks and veterans to get Rudy Gobert. He's one of the highest-impact defenders in the NBA and may have more to offer offensively than was shown in Utah with the Jazz.
But Gobert pushes Karl-Anthony Towns from center to power forward, and while it should work and probably will work, it's not 100 percent that the dual big lineup will be sufficient. Regular season Minnesota will be a beast. The bigger question is matchups in the playoffs, an area Utah struggled to push through. The real test for Gobert and the Timberwolves won't hit until April and May.
—Pincus
5. Anthony Davis
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Belief no longer sides with Anthony Davis. In our final rankings, he finds himself closer to Pascal Siakam territory than Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo—stars once upon a time considered his contemporaries.
Bullish onlookers will claim this panel is overstating his injury concerns. It’s not. Davis always seems to be dealing with something; getting injured is his chronic injury. But doubt is equally rooted in his performance.
The frequency with which Davis reaches the rim plummeted in 2020-21. His mid-range clip dipped back below 40 percent last season. His free-throw percentage has imploded since leaving the bubble.
That he has not helped keep the Lakers afloat in non-LeBron James minutes over the past two seasons is an indictment of Los Angeles’ roster construction. It also speaks to the limitations of his offensive armory as a play-finisher who can’t be saddled with the primary lifting.
—Favale
4. Karl-Anthony Towns
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Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best scoring bigs in the league, but he's not a great rim protector. The Minnesota Timberwolves addressed that flaw by pairing him with former Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. That should free up Towns to be what he is as a scorer.
That Towns is a career 39.7 percent three-point shooter should make it work on offense. He will put up big numbers offensively, but Gobert may take away some rebounding opportunities.
Defensively, does Towns have the foot speed to guard on the perimeter? Can Towns and Gobert dominate as twin towers in a league going smaller?
—Pincus
3. Joel Embiid
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Joel Embiid is one of the best scorers in NBA history. After securing the first scoring title of his career in 2021-22, he’s now 11th all time in career points per game (tied for first with Michael Jordan in career points per 75 possessions) and tied with Bob Pettit for first in career free throws per game.
Embiid can score like a traditional post player, from the mid-range or from three. And no one is as good at drawing contact. Even when you think he’s stopped, he somehow finds a way to get to the line.
And he’s far from an offense-only player. Embiid is among the game’s few who can lead his team on both ends of the floor.
—Bailey
2. Nikola Jokić
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Nikola Jokic isn’t just one of the best players in the NBA right now. He’s on track to be one of the greatest of all time.
He’s second all-time in career box plus/minus (behind only Michael Jordan). No one matches or exceeds all of his career marks for points (19.7), rebounds (10.4) and assists (6.2) per game. And after securing a second consecutive MVP in 2021-22, he’s one of just 13 players in league history to win that award in back-to-back seasons.
Jokic is so much more than his outrageous numbers, though.
No one makes passing more entertaining. No one is more dangerous from the mid-range. Few players (if any) are doing as much to keep the center position alive. And few players across history have ever been as good at elevating the level of their teammates.
—Bailey
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
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The title of Best Big In Basketball will belong to Giannis this season. But attacking his best-alive case is officially a fool’s errand. “Sure, he annihilates in the regular season, but he’s solvable in the playoffs!” is now a hollow, patently false refrain. Giannis has both been the best player on a title team (in 2021) and deepens his offensive armory every year.
Last season, most notably, he downed a career-high 44 percent of his long mid-range attempts and turned himself into more of an instinctual passer.
This year, who the hell knows? Maybe he tops 75 percent at the charity stripe, or he increases the processing speed with which he uncorks pull-up jumpers, hook shots and/or fadeaways.
The ceiling on what he does, and on how well he does it, quite literally does not exist.
—Favale
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