B/R Predicts Top 25 Guards for 2022-23 NBA Season
The time has come, hoops heads. With NBA basketball on the horizon, Bleacher Report is ready to unveil our official Top 100 player predictions for the 2022-23 season.
At least—we're almost ready.
On Friday, Oct. 14, NBA Top 100 will drop in the B/R app. Ahead of the reveal, we're rolling out positional rankings, all of which were determined by our final order. To kick things off is our Top 25 Guards, and in the coming days you'll see Top 25 Wings and Top 25 Bigs hit the app as well.
How did we do it?
Our Method
Bleacher Report asked its best basketball minds to rank their top 150-200 players. Participants used their own criteria in determining order, but everyone was asked to consider where players would finish 2022-23—not necessarily where they stand Game 1.
From there, we averaged player rankings across the board to build our Top 100.
Positions
To establish Guards, Wings and Bigs, we consulted Basketball Reference and reviewed which positions players spent most of their minutes at during their most recent seasons. But we didn't ignore the eye test. If a player qualified as a "big" on paper but is generally perceived as a "wing" on the court, we didn't get bogged down by numbers. (Someone who plays most minutes at the 4 can still be a wing in today's game, for example.)
The Results...
... are in, folks. All 100 players are in order, and all three major positions have 25 standouts.
Starting with guards, here's how we see this group shaking out in 2022-23, with a few teasers along the way about where players might land in our Top 100.
Nos. 25-21
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Tie-24. Cade Cunningham
There is a distinct possibility Cade Cunningham's rank looks blasphemous a few months from now. Sticklers will harp on the spotty shooting. And the rickety finishing. And the turnovers.
Related: Don't be a stickler.
Cunningham has ball-on-a-string composure in the half court. His efficiency should tick up amid actual NBA spacing (praise be, Bojan Bogdanovic!). Ditto for his turnover issues—which, by the way, weren't so much an issue as a rookie playing the part of offensive lifeline and posting the highest first-year usage rate since Luka Doncic in 2018-19.
Feel for the game alone renders Cunningham a superstar in the making.
Tie-24. Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons is not a perfect player, but at this point, he's underrated. His time in Philadelphia ended poorly in the playoffs, and then he missed all of last year (part holding out, part injury). Still, Simmons is an all-NBA defender and multiposition playmaker.
His hesitancy to shoot an outside shot can be an issue, but he should be productive as an elite role player on a team with elite scorers in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
23. De'Aaron Fox
Fox averaged 28.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.0 steals on 50.3 percent shooting over his final 16 games last season. Those are numbers that point to a monster 2022-23 campaign. The lack of a reliable three-point shot (32.0 percent for his career) and some underwhelming defense at times have kept Fox from entering the league's elite point guards conversation, although an improvement in both areas and a respectable Kings record could mean a potential All-Star trip this year.
22. CJ McCollum
The New Orleans Pelicans had a talented roster last season but didn't have enough to make the playoffs until the franchise traded for the veteran scorer. McCollum can flat-out get buckets, and his veteran leadership was just what the team needed.
With a healthy Zion Williamson and a full season of McCollum, the Pelicans should be even better this year.
—Pincus
21. Klay Thompson
Thompson, 32, may never reach the elite defensive level he was once at pre-injuries, but he's still one of the NBA's best shooters who averaged 27.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists and shot 41.9 percent from three over his final 11 regular-season games. The rust should be completely shaken off by now, and Golden State will once again rely heavily on Thompson's shot-making and off-ball activity.
For at least one more year, Thompson holds off younger shooting guards such as Desmond Bane, Jordan Poole and Jalen Green on this list.
—Swartz
Nos. 20-16
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20. Fred VanVleet
Fred VanVleet injects a dose of shooting and defense that could easily earn him higher billing. But the players to follow both on this list and in our final Top 100 are not egregiously ranked. Despite his improvements as a passer, VanVleet is not a point guard suited to handle a lion's share of table-setting duties when things slow down.
On a rosier note, it's important to remember fluttering around the top 50 is akin to All-Star status, which is where VanVleet finds himself in the eyes of our voters.
—Favale
19. Darius Garland
Most of the "best young point guard" debates of the last year or so have centered on Trae Young, Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball. Darius Garland just had a "don't forget about me" 2021-22 in which he made the All-Star Game and averaged 21.7 points and 8.6 assists. His vision and shooting ability could have him in the same class as the aforementioned 1s pretty soon.
18. Jamal Murray
Torn ACLs are not the harbingers of doom they used to be. But ranking someone who hasn't played NBA basketball in over a year, no matter how young, is impossibly difficult.
Jamal Murray ranking this high among guards—the best-ranking position in our Top 100 by a long shot—is a vote of confidence itself. There will be calls for him to trail Darius Garland or Fred VanVleet. That's fair. But a fully healthy and able Murray toggles between two extraordinary existences: deadly self-creator against set defenses and seamless sidekick to the reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Not all fringe stars can say the same, and both FVV and Garland, specifically, do not yet have his offensive track record.
—Favale
17. Dejounte Murray
The San Antonio Spurs traded Dejounte Murray (their best player) to the Atlanta Hawks to focus on rebuilding. He should now be an excellent fit alongside the offensive-minded Trae Young. Murray can create points at a high level, but he's also one of the better defenders at his position. Look for the Hawks to take a step forward this season with Murray.
—Pincus
16. Jrue Holiday
Few guards make a bigger impact on both ends of the floor than Holiday, whose plus-12.1 swing rating ranked in the 96th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. Just a 35.4 percent three-point shooter before his trade to the Bucks, Holiday has cashed in 40.2 percent of his triples the past two years.
A single All-Star appearance to this point hasn't done Holiday's career justice, although four All-Defensive teams and a championship have been well deserved. At age 32, Holiday is still a top-35 player in the league and will be a crucial piece to Milwaukee's shot at a second title in three years.
—Swartz
Nos. 15-11
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15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Overextension caught up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season. The Thunder had neither the spacing nor secondary ball-handling to streamline his offensive agency, and it showed in his efficiency on the perimeter. He went from a 55.8 effective field-goal percentage on jumpers in 2020-21 to 43.1 in 2021-22.
The context of his role helps explain the plunge—fueled mostly by his three-point shooting. Among 349 players to average at least 15 minutes per game through a minimum of 15 appearances, only Chris Paul and Luka Doncic saw a larger share of their buckets go unassisted.
It's a wonder SGA was still able to clear 50 percent shooting inside the arc. He plays at a variable cadence all his own, and even in regression, it transcends the inherent limitations of what's around him. If his placement ends up too high, it's likely because he collects too many DNPOTVWs ("DNP - OKC is thirsty for Victor Wembanyama").
—Favale
14. LaMelo Ball
LaMelo Ball is a joy to watch. He plays loose and fast. He'll take and make difficult shots and passes. Sometimes he'll do something you've never seen before on the court.
The Charlotte Hornets are still building an identity, but Ball makes the team a League Pass favorite. In just his sophomore season, he posted 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.6 assists while boosting his three-point shooting to 38.9 percent on 7.5 long balls per game.
—Pincus
13. Chris Paul
Predicting where Paul finishes this season is tricky, given the future Hall of Famer will turn 38 in May. For now, he deserves our respect as one of the best floor generals in the league today.
Paul led the NBA in assists per game last season (10.8) for the fifth time in his career but just the first since 2014-15 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Clippers. He's one of the league's best clutch performers and fadeaway elbow-jumper artists who can still get after it defensively. Perhaps no player understands the game more than Paul at this point, and he will continue to lean on his mental fortitude even more as he enters his 18th season.
—Swartz
12. Zach LaVine
There's nothing LaVine can't do offensively, as he's become one of the most dynamic and athletically gifted guards in the NBA today. Even playing next to a ball-dominant scorer in DeMar DeRozan, LaVine still put up big numbers while making 53.4 percent of his twos and 38.9 percent of his threes.
Barely outside of the top-five shooting guards, LaVine could potentially jump players such as Bradley Beal and Donovan Mitchell if he can continue to improve defensively and experience a little more playoff success. Having played in just four total postseason games in eight years has lowered LaVine's stock, although back-to-back All-Star appearances the past two seasons look good on the resume.
—Swartz
11. Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards had the look of a 2-guard ready to take the league by storm during the 2022 postseason. In the tradition of greats like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade before him, Edwards took the reins of his team's playoff run from his All-Star big man teammate with 25.2 points per game.
If he rides that momentum into 2022-23, the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to push for home-court advantage in the 2023 playoffs.
—Bailey
Nos. 10-6
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10. Bradley Beal
Bradley Beal finds himself ferrying the burden of proof after signing a supermax contract—no-trade clause included—on the heels of a down season. His efficiency fell off a cliff from just about everywhere outside four feet.
Better health and a more complementary supporting cast should help him regain some of his offensive game. But allowing him to fend off players coming off objectively superior seasons—Zach LaVine (No. 12 on this list), Anthony Edwards (No. 11)—is a gift.
—Favale
9. Kyrie Irving
Irving is probably a top-10 talent in the NBA, but a ranking better than this would be doing a disservice to stars who've been more consistently available.
When he's on the floor, there's no questioning Irving's production. The seven-time All-Star has averaged 27.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.4 steals and shot 40.6 percent from three in 103 total games with the Nets.
We could be in for a monster season from Irving after he picked up his player option this past summer.
—Swartz
8. Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell nearly crossing the top-20 mark in our Top 100 might end up coming off a touch too high considering the players he edges out both on this list and in our final order.
Still, for all his faults, Mitchell promises a multitude of offensive dimensions that makes his top-10 status among guards easier to swallow. Defenses overreact when he gets into the lane, he is comfortable draining jumpers off the catch, and his off-the-bounce three ranks among the most lethal in the league.
—Favale
7. James Harden
Much was made of James Harden seemingly losing a half step over the course of 2021-22, but even this version is one of the game's very best creators and distributors.
When paired with Joel Embiid, he's the piloting half of one of the game's most devastating pick-and-roll combinations.
Even if he's not the peak Houston Rockets version of himself, Harden's ability to manipulate the pace and organization of any possession makes him extremely valuable.
—Bailey
6. Damian Lillard
After a down year (physically and statistically) in 2021-22, Damian Lillard seems poised to return to his old form. According to the Rose Garden Report's Sean Highkin, Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups said Dame's "zero-to-sixty burst" is back.
When right, few players are as consistent and dangerous offensively as Lillard. He presents the threat of deep pull-up threes like Trae while still being able to slice through defenses and punish the rim.
—Bailey
5. Devin Booker
5 of 9
Devin Booker just finished fourth on the MVP ballot, and yet, it still feels like his stardom is being somewhat repressed.
Not enough appreciation is shown for the bankability of Booker's scoring. There is a reason the Suns unraveled in the second of the playoffs when the Mavericks reformatted their entire defense to harass him. Among 278 players to clear at least 30 touches per game last season, he placed first in points per touch. And he ranked fourth in this same category for 2019-20 and 2020-21.
There is also an underappreciation for the passes he throws once he gets downhill. The Suns would do well to give him more floor-general reps in the half court—particularly given the state of this year's bench.
—Favale
4. Trae Young
6 of 9
Trae Young is an offensive powerhouse. He's going to generate most of his team's offense as a scorer (28.4 points per game last season), shooter (38.2 percent from three) and playmaker (9.7 assists per night). But Young is not a high-impact defender with his slight build.
Recognizing the talent they have in Young, the Atlanta Hawks have worked to pair the 24-year-old guard with long, athletic defenders. The addition of Dejounte Murray, one of the better backcourt defenders in the league, should help balance Young's limitations.
Murray also gives Atlanta another capable primary playmaker, which should prevent teams from sending nonstop traps to get the ball out of Young's hands.
—Pincus
3. Ja Morant
7 of 9
Perhaps the game’s most dynamic slasher and finisher, Ja Morant made a superstar leap in 2021-22, taking his scoring average from 19.1 points to 27.4. And while increases in three-point volume, three-point percentage and two-point percentage all contributed to the improvement, nothing stands out quite like his numbers in the paint.
The 6'3" Morant led the league in points in the paint per game at 16.6, just ahead of the likes of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.
Getting that kind of pressure on the rim from your point guard makes life exponentially easier for everyone else on the floor, especially floor-spacing bigs like Jaren Jackson Jr.
—Bailey
2. Stephen Curry
8 of 9
The demise of Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors was oversold. The team finally got healthy last year to recapture the title, with Curry earning his first Finals MVP. He is older now at 34, but he's still that baby-faced killer.
His scoring output dipped from 32 points per game through 2020-21, an incredible performance on a team riddled with injuries, to 25.5 last year. But that drop was more a reflection of an improved, healthier roster. Teams have to honor Curry's shot from anywhere on the court. His range is unparalleled in NBA history.
—Pincus
1. Luka Doncic
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Even watching Luka Doncic play as a rookie, it was clear he was destined to join the league's elite players before long. While he's always put up numbers, a lack of conditioning seemed to hold Doncic back from reaching his massive potential. Now, the 23-year-old looks slimmer than ever and is coming off a playoff performance where he averaged 31.7 points in 15 games to lead all postseason scorers.
With Jalen Brunson gone, Doncic's usage is only going to go up, with a scoring title and triple-double average entirely possible this season. His bag of offensive tricks is unmatched in the league, and his playmaking, rebounding and clutch play are also off the charts.
Doncic could very well take his place at the top of the basketball mountain one day, but for now, being recognized as the game's best guard is a nice start.
—Swartz
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