B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 3

Adam KramerSeptember 15, 2022

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In a 15-hour stretch, we were reminded why we love college football. No, we didn’t need a reminder. This love is forever. But when those plans are abandoned, college football thrives.

For a moment, put aside the point spreads. We’ll tackle those momentarily. Instead, let us celebrate the chaos that Week 2 provided before sinking deep into Week 3. What a weekend it was.

Now, back to the task at hand. Locks of the Week finished a mundane 4-4-1 last weekend. For the year, we are still a very respectable 14-8-1. We have still yet to have a losing weekend, and we don’t plan to start in Week 3.

Before we dive into this week’s picks, let’s highlight the good and bad from the week that was.

The Good: Georgia State (+7.5) vs. North Carolina

For a while, it didn’t look pretty. Georgia State fell behind early before finding a third-quarter surge. Then, we held on for dear life and covered the spread. Thank you for that glorious hook.

The Bad: Stanford (+8.5) vs. USC

Yikes. Sure, Stanford had some early chances. The offense blew multiple red-zone opportunities in the first half, and that didn’t help matters. The defense, however, had zero answers for USC’s offense. Bad pick.

Here are our selections for Week 3.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.

Washington (-3) vs. Michigan State

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Let’s be honest about both of these football teams. We don’t know much after a few weeks.

To date, neither has faced a dangerous opponent. Well, until now. Washington is 2-0 with wins over Kent State and Portland State. Michigan State is 2-0 with wins over Western Michigan and Akron.

What we do know about this matchup, however, is that home field is likely to be a significant piece of this puzzle. While Washington had a rough 2021, a reconstructed offense seems to be taking shape.

Michael Penix Jr., formerly of Indiana, has brought life to a Washington offense that needed it. Granted, that life came against teams that don’t have nearly the same talent as the one the Huskies will square up with Saturday.

Still, I love the prospect of the unranked team laying points. I also love home-field advantage here.

Washington wins by a touchdown.

Oregon (-3.5) vs. BYU

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This one pains me, at least a little bit.

BYU was kind to the bank account last weekend. The Cougars are also a great deal of fun to watch. I would love to see this team push for a playoff spot, and it has the schedule to make it possible.

With that acknowledged, Oregon is a quality football team. Sure, Week 1 against Georgia was an absolute disaster. The Ducks were dominated in all aspects. There is no shying away from that.

But that was Georgia, the best team in college football right now. (Sorry, Alabama.) While BYU has plenty of talent, the assignment is far different. And after watching Baylor and BYU go blow-for-blow last Saturday night, I’m curious to see how the physical and emotional toll of that game impacts this team this week.

Oregon QB Bo Nix looked much more comfortable last weekend against Eastern Washington. Yes, it was Eastern Washington. If he doesn’t turn the ball over, and that can be an if at times, expect Oregon to make a statement.

NC State vs. Texas Tech (Over 54)

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This point spread has me somewhat baffled. Given how “meh” NC State looked in Week 1, I am a tad surprised to see the point spread as large as it is. Rather than commit to a side, I am committing to the over. (This is never a bad thing to commit to.)

Both teams should find success on this side of the ball. Texas Tech wants to move fast, and it should largely be able to with QB Donovan Smith. NC State, led by QB Devin Leary, should find success on this front as well.

The total has only come up slightly since opening, and I am happy to catch it where it is. It wouldn’t shock me to see both teams post scores in the 30s. It also wouldn’t shock me to see Texas Tech keep it close, although we’ll save that prediction for another day.

Syracuse (-1.5) vs. Purdue

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Is Syracuse…good?

If this point spread and line movements are any indication of what is about to transpire, the answer could be yes.

Purdue opened as a one-point favorite. The line has since jumped in Syracuse’s favor. Given the way the Orange have looked this year, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. Dino Baber’s team is 2-0, having outscored Louisville and UConn 79-21 in two games. The win over Louisville has aged well in a short period of time.

The Boilermakers clobbered Indiana State last week after coughing away a win over Penn State in Week 1. The offense is plenty capable, although this is an odd road trip. And Syracuse counters with Sean Tucker, one of the best running backs in America.

The Orange move to 3-0.

Fresno State (+12.5) vs. USC

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For the second week in a row, I am fading USC. As noted above, this was a bad decision last time. Stanford had no remedy to the USC offense, and turnovers didn’t help.

But Fresno State is a very good football team. The Bulldogs lost on the final play against Oregon State last weekend. Given the way the Beavers have largely played over the past few seasons, there’s really no shame in that.

Fresno State QB Jake Haener might not be Caleb Williams, but he can sling it. He should be a good test for a USC defense that still has a long way to go, and I am expecting him to be the catalyst for another solid Fresno effort.

Does fading USC again feel, well, dangerous? Maybe slightly. There’s no denying the offensive talent, which appears to have clicked almost immediately. The Trojans will still have too much offense to win, although Fresno State delivers a scare.

Other Games on the Card

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Houston vs. Kansas (Over 57)

I know I am not the only one who will be all over the over in this game. And I am perfectly fine with that. Kansas football is fun again, and Houston will be ready after a loss.

LSU (+2) vs Mississippi State

Yes, Week 1 was rough. But quarterback Jayden Daniels looks bigger and better, and I expect the progress of LSU to be noteworthy throughout the year. Brian Kelly gets the W.

South Alabama (+15.5) vs. UCLA

Don’t sleep on the Jaguars. They are feisty, 2-0 against the spread and very capable of giving a UCLA team that has started sluggish a bit of a run.

Troy (+12.5) vs. Appalachian State

Behold a glorious football hangover. After beating Texas A&M on the road in thrilling fashion, Appalachian State heads home to take on a sneaky-good Troy team. I’ll gladly take those points.

Old Dominion (+8) vs. Virginia

We cap things off with one more underdog. Old Dominion isn't bad, and Virginia just lost badly to Illinois. The end result is a weird football game with a close outcome.

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