B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 2

Adam KramerSeptember 8, 2022

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Like the Georgia Bulldogs, our college football picks don’t need a preseason or time to rebuild. When asked to perform in a high-pressure situation, aka Week 1, Locks of the Week delivered a championship performance.

Our Week 1 picks didn’t start well. We lost two games by fewer than three combined points, which stung. From that point forward, we went a perfect 7-0 to wrap up a thrilling stretch of football.

For the year, we are a cozy 10-4 against the spread. I refuse, however, to get cozy after two winning weeks. Like Nick Saban says, we need to trust the process.

Before we move on to our Week 2 picks, here is what went right (and wrong) last weekend.

The Good: Oregon-Georgia (Under 52.5)

We nailed most of last week, but this under was a gift. With 31 points at the half, I assumed this bet was toast. Thanks to some clock-killing and a late stop by Georgia deep in the red zone, we pulled this one off.

The Bad: Purdue (+3.5) vs. Penn State

This smelled like a Purdue win and cover, and I’m unsure why head coach Jeff Brohm didn’t run the ball more near the end of the game. Thank goodness the rest of the week was much different, because words were said after this outcome

Here are our selections for Week 2.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.

Texas Tech (-3) vs. Houston

AP Photo/Brad Tollefson

Yes, Texas Tech’s starting quarterback, Tyler Shough, is out of this game with an injury. For most teams, that would be a sizable concern. But the Red Raiders will be fine, and I really like them at home as a small chalk against a ranked team with their backup QB.

That backup, Donovan Smith, completed 14-of-16 throws for 221 yards and four touchdowns when thrown into action last week. Granted, it came against Murray State. But I could absolutely see Smith posting another huge game with Zach Kittley, Tech’s new OC, calling the shots.

On the other sideline, Houston delivered a thrilling 37-35 victory over UTSA in the opener. Quarterback Clayton Tune scored four touchdowns, and he should have a big game once again. The Cougars are a fine team with a ton of promise; I simply like Tech more, especially at home.

There will be plenty of points scored along the way. A total in the mid-60s says a lot about the game we are likely to get.

Texas Tech will just have more of them.

Stanford (+8.5) vs. USC

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Oh, this point spread is going to generate a flurry of opinions. USC believers will scream that it is not nearly enough points. Those who believe the college football media have spent the past six months inflating the reputation of the Trojans will feel that it’s just right. (Stanford won last year's matchup by double digits, for whatever that's worth.)

Me? I see an opportunity.

While Stanford has become a Pac-12 punchline, there are pieces in place that are intriguing. In particular, quarterback Tanner McKee could be a real issue for a USC defense that still has holes.

Sure, that defense delivered three pick-sixes against Rice last week. That’s a heck of a start. But playing on the road will present a different challenge. Stanford might not have the same talent as USC, but the Cardinal are playing the Trojans at the right time.

We watched McKee lead Stanford to an upset win over Oregon in early October last year. This game could have a similar vibe, and it wouldn’t shock me if the home team won outright.

BYU (-3) vs Baylor

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It won’t be the most anticipated football game of Week 2, but it feels like it might be the best of the bunch.

For the second consecutive Saturday, I’m backing the Cougars. South Florida mustered up very little against BYU in the opener, and that momentum will carry forward back to Provo.

Granted, Baylor is a much tougher opponent. Betting against head coach Dave Aranda is not something I do lightly. He has done a masterful job turning things around quickly with Baylor, but this is an ideal time to play the Bears. Plenty of new starters are still settling in.

BYU, of course, had to replace running back Tyler Allgeier. At least in Week 1, his absence wasn’t an issue. The Cougars averaged more than eight yards per carry.

Last year, Baylor won this game at home by two touchdowns. It was one of only two losses for BYU during the regular season. This year, the results will flip. BYU scores a massive win at home against a top-10 team. (Oh, and the Cougars cover.)

Georgia State (+7.5) vs. North Carolina

AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis

I’m going to address the elephant in the room. This is not a revenge bet.

Yes, I lost betting against North Carolina on Saturday. Appalachian State put up one heck of a fight against the Tar Heels, although the effort came up just short. Granted, if UNC would have simply recovered a late onside kick rather than run it back for a touchdown, I would have covered.

Georgia State is feisty. Sure, the Panthers lost by more than two touchdowns at South Carolina last week. It’s worth noting that Georgia State led this game 14-12 in the third quarter before allowing two blocked punts. Both resulted in touchdowns.

When you look at how the Panthers played near the homestretch of 2021, you see a team on the rise. Amid the loss last weekend, Georgia State ran for 200 yards and averaged five yards per carry.

Against a North Carolina defense that still has issues, look for the Panthers to have plenty of success.

Also, look out for the upset.

Iowa (-3.5) vs. Iowa State

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I know what you’re thinking.

No, I’m not proud of this pick.

But winning games against the spread is the objective, and I search for value wherever I possibly can. There is value here.

Iowa was dreadful last week against South Dakota State. In fact, dreadful might not be enough.

The Hawkeyes scored seven points thanks to two safeties and a field goal—one of the most Iowa things to ever happen. They totaled 166 yards of offense. They punted 10 times. There is no sugarcoating this effort. Well, maybe there is.

South Dakota State is actually a pretty decent football team.

That is one of many angles in play this week as Iowa plays its rival. I do not expect the offense to be fixed, although given how talented the Iowa defense is, it doesn’t have to be completely operational just yet.

The other factor? History. Iowa has won this rivalry six times in a row and covered the spread in five of those years. Will this game be pretty? Goodness no. But Iowa finds a way to win and cover.

Other Games on the Card

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Fresno State vs. Oregon State (Over 61)

I’ve gone back and forth on what side I like in this matchup, although I haven’t waivered on how the game will be played. There will be points, potentially a whole bunch of them. Prepare for this game to last deep into Saturday night.

Kansas State vs. Missouri (Over 57)

Let’s hit one more over in a semi-fascinating matchup between two Power Five schools. Missouri posted 52 points in its opener; Kansas State let running back Deuce Vaughn run wild. Look for both teams to have enough success for this over to cash.

Army (+2.5) vs. UTSA

One of these two quality teams will start the season 0-2, and I don’t believe it will be Army. The Black Knights came up just short against Coastal Carolina last week, although playing at home will change this week’s outcome.

Illinois (-4.5) vs. Virginia

Bret Bielema's team lost a tough Week 1 game to Indiana, but Illinois has actually shown a lot in a few weeks. Virginia wasn't exactly overwhelming against Richmond in Week 1, and Illinois is in a position to take advantage.


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