2011 Meineke Car Care Bowl: Why the Bowl Drought Will Continue for Northwestern

Big Ten Bowl Preview Extravaganza—Part 4 of 10

The Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas features two teams headed in vastly differing directions.  Texas A&M will be led by an interim coach holding the line until Kevin Sumlin takes over following the bowl, while Northwestern has no staff turnover with Pat Fitzgerald still leading the team.

Furthermore, Northwestern finished the season on a hot streak with a four-game wining streak before the closing loss against division champion Michigan State, while Texas A&M stumbled down the stretch to end up here.

Northwestern has now gone to four straight bowl games in four years, but the last bowl win for the program dates all the way back to 1949.  Let's take a look at the five keys to Northwestern breaking that bowl game losing streak.

No. 1: Dan Persa must spread the ball around diversely

Texas A&M has surrendered more than 280 passing yards per game, including season-high totals to Robert Griffin III of Baylor and Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State.  The Aggies have struggled especially when there is more than one receiving threat to worry about in the defensive backfield.

Now they face one of the most efficient passers in college football in Dan Persa, who put up nice numbers despite only playing in nine games.  Persa also has a number of top receiving weapons to rely on to stretch out the thin Aggies defensive backfield.

These threats include WR Jeremy Ebert, WR Demetrius Fields and TE Drake Dunsmore.  Watch for Dunsmore in particular to catch a lot of passes as a safety outlet for Persa, even if Texas A&M manages to produce a good pass rush.

If Persa can spread the ball around to these guys rather than focusing on one or two, Texas A&M will not know what to focus on to stop the Wildcats.

No. 2: Northwestern's offensive line should keep Dan Persa out of pressure and trouble

Although Texas A&M ranks 113th in passing defense out of 120 college football teams, and this has nothing to do with the pass rush of the defensive front.

The Aggies are tied for the national lead in sacks going into bowl season, and Texas A&M will definitely try to force Persa into uncomfortable situations.  Persa is experienced and efficient enough to not beat himself, unless the Aggies get to Persa early and often.

Unfortunately, Northwestern has allowed 34 sacks this season, a rate of nearly three per game. That must not be the case if the Wildcats are to stay with the Aggies in what should be a scoring free-for-all.

Persa may still be a little hesitant to run the ball all over the field to avoid injuring his leg again.  If Persa shows any sign of timidity, the Aggies will jump on it and blow out the Wildcats.

No. 3: Northwestern will need to establish some semblance of a running game

Although Texas A&M was terrible on defense against opposing passing games, the Aggies were fantastic against the run.  Texas A&M only gives up 106 yards per game rushing, which puts it in the top 15 nationally in that category.

Similar to the reasons why A&M generates so much pass rush, the defensive line is absolutely dominant in Big 12 play. However, most Big 12 teams are not the smash-mouth Big Ten variety.

Thankfully for the Aggies, neither are the Wildcats. Dan Persa has preferred to be a pocket quarterback since his injury last year, and Kain Colter is more of a runner than a passer.  Northwestern tends to run a spread offense that focuses far more on the pass than on the run.

However, Northwestern will need to control the time of possession to avoid its own defense being worn out.  This game looks a lot like last year against Texas Tech, when Northwestern put up a ton of points but could not keep pace with the 45 Texas Tech scored.

To avoid that fate again, Northwestern needs a legitimate running game.

No. 4: Force Texas A&M to be one-dimensional (either way)

Texas A&M achieved outstanding balance on offense with 290 passing yards per game and 209 rushing yards per game.  That effective offense enabled the Aggies to score nearly 40 points per game.

Considering the lapses of the Wildcats defense from time to time this season, Northwestern cannot be expected to shut down such a good offense. However, the defense only needs to play well enough to allow the offense to score enough points to win, which is how Texas A&M has won most of its games.

Thus, Northwestern needs to focus on completely shutting down one side of the Aggies' offense to force them into a predictable and limited offense.  If the Wildcats play tough enough on the defensive line and at the linebacker level to stop RB Cyrus Gray from running wild, QB Ryan Tannehill will be forced to beat the Northwestern defenders on the edges.

Tannehill is a good quarterback, but he did throw 14 interceptions this season.  Generating those turnovers by forcing Texas A&M to be one-dimensional will allow Northwestern to stay in the game.  Which just happens to be...

No. 5: Stay close and wait for the Aggies to implode

Here is a list of leads lost by Texas A&M during its 6-6 season: an 18-point lead against Arkansas, an 11-point lead against Missouri, a 17-point lead against Oklahoma State and a 10-point lead against Kansas State.  If A&M holds the leads late against even just three of these teams, the Aggies would be headed to a top-tier bowl game.

That did not happen, though, and these lapses led to the end of coach Mike Sherman's tenure in College Station.  Although Sherman will not be coaching in this game, interim head coaches generally play conservatively, even in bowl games.

That means Northwestern will likely outplay the Aggies if the game stays within striking range into the second half.  The Wildcats almost certainly cannot come back from a 20-plus-point deficit, but anything less than that going into the fourth quarter is not a safe lead for a team with a fragile psyche like A&M.

If games were only 30 minutes long, A&M would be playing for a national title.  However, this bowl game and all other games are 60 minutes long, and Northwestern can take advantage of the Aggies' inability to play a full 60 minutes.

Prediction

Northwestern will come out with two quick touchdowns to grab the early lead, but Texas A&M will slap the Wildcats right back with its own touchdowns.  The Aggies will continue to roll through the first three quarters while Northwestern plays inconsistently, building a hole to large to get out of. 

Northwestern gets close again at the end, but A&M will hold a convincing victory despite the close score.  The bowl losing streak will continue, although Northwestern will break through eventually.

Texas A&M 41, Northwestern 34

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David Fitzgerald II is a Big Ten football featured columnist for Bleacher Report.  Get updates on new articles by following him on Twitter @BuckeyeFitzy.