Green Bay Packers Playoff Scenarios: Why Pack Has Clear Shot at Indy

Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy remains mum on the topic of resting his players in their Week 17 matchup with the Detroit Lions.  

It seems unlikely he would choose to risk injury in a meaningless game against a team he might be facing again in the second round of the playoffs.

The Packers have locked up home field in the NFC and will take full advantage of the next two weeks in order to get players like Greg Jennings healthy and ready to go for the postseason.

Let's examine the potential playoff scenarios for the Packers as they seek their second consecutive trip to the Super Bowl. 

First Scenario: Matchup with Atlanta Falcons

There are two ways the Packers could potentially face the Atlanta Falcons.

If the Packers beat the Lions on Sunday (not likely if Green Bay rests their players) and Atlanta beats Tampa Bay, the Falcons would earn the fith seed and face the winner of the NFC East in the first round.

The Falcons would go on the road to face either the New York Giants or the Dallas Cowboys and would face the Packers in the second round if they win and the Saints beat the Lions at home.

They could also face the Packers if they end up as the six seed and beat the Saints in New Orleans, thus, facing the Packers due to re-seeding in the second round where the top seed faces the highest remaining seed.

I don't feel either scenario is likely as I believe the Lions will beat the Packers this weekend due to the Packers resting their players and will lock up the five seed.

As the six seed, Atlanta would travel to New Orleans, where they lost 45-16 last week.  Would you bet on the Falcons to win that game?

Regardless, if the Falcons do somehow make it to Lambeau Field in the second round, I'm sure the Packers would welcome a dome team to the frozen tundra with open arms.

Second Scenario: Matchup with the Detroit Lions

The Lions would lock up the five seed with a win at Lambeau this weekend, setting up a first-round matchup with the winner of the NFC East.

If the Lions manage to lose this weekend against Green Bay's backups, they will likely end up as the sixth seed and would travel to New Orleans.

Obviously, this game is very important for Detroit as a game at Dallas or New York sounds much better than a game at New Orleans.

I think it's highly likely the Lions will face the Packers in the second round of the playoffs, as I anticipate Detroit winning this weekend at Green Bay and winning in the first round on the road against the winner of the NFC East.

Once again, another clear shot for Green Bay into the NFC Championship as they would welcome yet another dome team to Lambeau in the second round.

Third Scenario: Matchup with the Dallas Cowboys

If the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Giants this weekend, they will lock up the fourth seed and host a game versus either the Detroit Lions or Atlanta Falcons.

The Cowboys could potentially be favored to win at home against either team and with a healthy Tony Romo, they very well may.

So let's see here, a win at New York this weekend, a home win over the Lions (most likely opponent) and a trip to Lambeau Field for the second round.

Another semi-dome team heading to Green Bay?  I would expect the Packers to absolutely dominate a soft Cowboys team without a running game on the frozen tundra.

What do you know, another great scenario for the Packers.

Fourth Scenario: Matchup with the New York Giants

Can the Giants win two straight home games to set up a second-round matchup with the Packers?  They should be able to, but they've struggled mightily at home, going 3-4 thus far.

I can actually see this scenario playing out, the Giants take care of business at home this weekend versus the Cowboys and follow it up with a home win against either the Detroit Lions or Atlanta Falcons in the first round.

So now we have the Giants heading to Green Bay for a second-round matchup?  Although the Packers should easily handle New York at home, this would be the scenario I would least favor if I were a Packers fan.

Regardless, taking down a banged up Giants team at home shouldn't be too difficult for Green Bay.

Final Scenario for NFC Title Game

We've already determined that the Packers wouldn't have any trouble disposing of the previous four teams we mentioned.

Now the question becomes, how would the Packers handle the winner of the New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers matchup?

This is the most likely scenario on the other side of the bracket, with the three seed Saints traveling to San Francisco to take on the two seed 49ers coming off their bye week.

Let's say the 49ers were to hold serve at home, Alex Smith going to Lambeau to face off with Aaron Rodgers for a trip to the Super Bowl?  Packers fans would be salivating at this potential matchup for a second consecutive NFC Title.

How about a Drew Brees-led Saints team?  Now this is where things finally start to get interesting for the Packers.  Does anyone have any doubt that Drew Brees couldn't pick apart a Packers defense and keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and company?

They could.  IF the game was being played indoors on carpet.  Unfortunately, this game will be played outdoors, on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.  

The Saints high-powered attack just won't have the same timing necessary to execute their offense on a consistent basis.  Just look back to their last game outdoors against an average Titans team where they were extremely fortunate to escape with a 22-17 win at Tennessee.

So in our final scenario, yet another dome team traveling to Green Bay with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line?

Go ahead and book your flights to Indy now Packers fans. You path could't be any more clear.