What's Next for Tom Brady in His Fifth Decade?

Happy 40th birthday, Tom Brady! You're now closer to your 60s than your teens, and yet you're six months removed from winning Super Bowl MVP. Soon after earning that fifth Super Bowl ring this winter, you told Peter King of The MMQB that you'd like to play until your mid-40s, which would require you to defy odds and laugh in the face of precedents. 

But you've made a habit of doing that, Tom. You're the first player to quarterback his team to five Super Bowl victories, and you accomplished that despite being the 199th pick in the 2000 NFL draft. 

Still, Father Time is undefeated, and he often strikes abruptly. Your greatest rival, Peyton Manning, was the league MVP at the age of 37 and a Pro Bowler with a triple-digit passer rating at 38. As a 39-year-old in 2015, he and Ryan Mallett were the lowest-rated qualified passers in the NFL. 

Manning didn't quite make it to 40. Neither did modern-era Hall of Famers Kurt Warner, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Steve Young, Dan Marino, John Elway, Joe Montana, Ken Stabler, Dan Fouts, Terry Bradshaw, Bob Griese, Roger Staubach and Fran Tarkenton. 

In fact, only 13 quarterbacks have started games after turning 40. Only three (Brett Favre, Warren Moon and Vinny Testaverde) have started more than eight games at or beyond that age, only two (Favre and Moon) have made the Pro Bowl in their 40s and a 40-something-year-old quarterback has never been a first-team All-Pro.

Quarterback	Starts in 40s	Pro Bowls	Playoff wins	Retired at
Brett Favre	25	1	1	41
Warren Moon	25	1	0	44
Vinny Testaverde	25	0	0	44
Matt Hasselbeck	8	0	0	40
Doug Flutie	6	0	0	43
Len Dawson	5	0	0	40
Sonny Jurgensen	4	0	0	40
Johnny Unitas	4	0	0	40
Charlie Conerly	3	0	0	40
Vince Evans	3	0	0	40
Brad Johnson	3	0	0	40
Earl Morrall	2	0	0	42
Steve DeBerg	1	0	0	44

The only quarterbacks to win more games than they lost in their 40s? Favre (13-12), Matt Hasselbeck (5-3), Sonny Jurgensen (3-1), Charlie Conerly (2-1) and Earl Morrall (2-0). The other eight old men went a combined 28-46.

And in the Super Bowl era, only three quarterbacks have thrown passes in NFL playoff games after turning 40.

• Favre started and won a playoff game as a 40-year-old with the Minnesota Vikings during the 2009 season. He then started and lost the NFC Championship Game against the New Orleans Saints the following week.
• George Blanda wasn't a regular quarterback beyond the age of 39, but as a kicker and a backup signal-caller, he did throw 45 passes in multiple playoff games in his 40s. 
• And in the final game of his career, a 40-year-old Sonny Jurgensen completed six of 12 passes in relief of Billy Kilmer in a 1974 playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams. 

That's it. 

Again, Tom, there's no reason to believe you can't be an exception to the rule. You're already the oldest Super Bowl MVP in history, you have more playoff wins (25) than any other quarterback by a margin of nine (Montana has 16) and did I mention how teams passed on you 198 times in the 1999 draft? 

Besides, success beyond age 39 isn't unprecedented. 

The year he turned 40, Favre was special. He was an MVP candidate with the Vikings, posting a 107.2 passer rating while leading a 12-4 team to the NFC title game. And the year he turned 41, Moon averaged a league high 245.2 yards per game while earning a Pro Bowl nod. 

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

But Favre was technically 39 for a portion of that magical 2009 season, and he struggled before and after his 41st birthday in 2010. Moon was actually 40 for the majority of his age-41 season, and he struggled while winning just four games over the three years that followed. He wasn't effective in his age-40 season, either, which means both guys had one strong season each after reaching your current age, Tom. 

So while you should still be the same old Tom Terrific in 2017, it'd be wise to approach this one season at a time. There is no record of a quarterback ever starting a season at the age of 41 or older and experiencing objective success. It's never happened. Yet you're talking mid-40s, and your boss is throwing even bolder statements around. 

"As recently as 2-3 days ago, he assured me he'd be willing to play six to seven more years and at the level he performed," Patriots owner Robert Kraft said in March, per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss. "There's no one that would be happier than I, and our fanbase."

Whoa, whoa, whoa. 

Yes, 13 quarterbacks have made starts at or beyond the age of 40. But that number shrinks to six at the age of 41, four at 42, three at 43 and 44 and zero at 45. 

This is a list of players who have thrown at least one NFL pass after turning 45:

1. George Blanda 

End of list.

Blanda threw 11 passes on his 45th birthday in 1972, threw 11 more while continuing to serve as an ageless kicker and emergency quarterback over the next four years and retired as the oldest player in NFL history (age 48) in 1975. 

Here's the good news, Tom. What you did at age 39 was unprecedented. 

Quarterback	Starts	Comp.%	TD-INT	Rating	Record, accolades
Tom Brady	12	67.4	28-2	112.2	14-1, SB MVP
Warren Moon	16	62.2	33-14	91.5	8-8, Pro Bowl
Jim Plunkett	8	52.8	14-9	82.5	3-5, none
Brett Favre	16	65.7	22-22	81.0	9-7, Pro Bowl
Doug Flutie	16	56.4	15-18	72.0	5-11, none
Charlie Conerly	7	49.3	8-7	70.9	5-1-1, none
Peyton Manning	9	59.8	9-17	67.9	10-2, Super Bowl
Len Dawson	8	58.7	7-13	65.8	3-5, none
George Blanda	8	45.0	17-21	55.3	3-5, none

So, you're entering your 40s with a head start. No 39-year-old has done what you did at that age in 2016. You should now aim to continue setting new age-defying precedents every season until Father Time notices his mistake. 

Good luck, and cheers. May your fifth decade be as decorated as your third and fourth. And if it is, may the poor Dolphins, Bills or Jets find the NFL's next immortal quarterback. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon