Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans (2-0) and New England Patriots (2-0) meet Thursday night in a battle of unbeaten teams, with the former listed as small road favorites against the latter. The Patriots are expected to be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo due to a shoulder injury, meaning rookie and former third-stringer Jacoby Brissett will likely start in his place.

Point spread: The Texans opened as two-point favorites and the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.3-20.6 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Despite some recent disappointing performances on Thursday night, along with past struggles versus New England, Houston is hoping to ride the arm of quarterback Brock Osweiler to victory here. Before leaving for the Texans as a free agent this past offseason, Osweiler helped hand the Patriots their first loss a year ago when he was with the Denver Broncos.

Osweiler will definitely be the more experienced of the two starting quarterbacks in this matchup, as Brissett also has to deal with arguably the best defensive player in the NFL today in J.J. Watt, who has 1.5 sacks in the first two games.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

No matter what New England head coach Bill Belichick has done so far this season, it has worked out perfectly. His ability to adjust from having future Hall of Famer Tom Brady to Garoppolo to Brissett makes him perhaps the best coaching mind in the game.

The Patriots have thrived as home underdogs under Belichick, going a remarkable 10-1 against the spread in that situation, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database. They have also gone an impressive 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings with Houston.

Smart pick

It may seem extremely difficult to go against Belichick in this scenario as a home dog, but there is a huge drop-off in terms of talent between Garoppolo and Brissett; website PredictionMachine.com has the Patriots' win expectancy for this week dropping from 52.0% to 45.9% with the change at quarterback for New England.

New England had trouble scoring last week when Garoppolo left in the second quarter of an eventual 31-24 win over the Miami Dolphins. The Pats nearly blew a 24-0 lead and will not have that same luxury in this tough spot. Look for the Texans to win and cover.

Betting trends

The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their past six games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 games as home underdogs.

The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their past six games on Thursday.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.