Dec. 28 Big Ten Basketball Predictions: Northwestern at Ohio State and More

Gary Parrish of CBS Sports wrote a nice piece about the depth of the Big Ten, and the unpredictability of the conference after Ohio State. More startling than anything else he wrote were a couple of stats he compiled demonstrating the Big Ten's superiority in 2011:

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The league is rated No. 1 at CollegeRPI.com and—as Ohio State beat writer Bob Baptist points out—its lead over the second-rated conference (ACC) is greater than the margin separating the conferences rated second (ACC) through sixth (MWC). Translation: It's not even close. Furthermore, the Big Ten has 67 percent of its members (or eight teams) ranked in the top 60 at CollegeRPI.com and 75 percent of its members (or nine teams) ranked in the top 60 at KenPom.com. No other league has more than 58 percent of its members in the top 60 at CollegeRPI.com or 63 percent of its members in the the top 60 at KenPom.com.

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Larger translation: Like the Big Ten schedule, my task in predicting every conference game this season will be long and grueling. Fortunately, I got off to a good start last night.

Illinois made me sweat it out through two overtimes before eventually covering the 6.5 point spread, while Wisconsin suffocated Nebraska—giving them a rude introduction to the best conference in the country.

*Quick note. From now on I will be using the lines from Sportsbook.com, instead of the Vegas Hilton, because they get posted much earlier. This is all in an effort to get these previews out to you guys as soon as possible. 

Last Night:

Against the spread: 2-0-0

Straight up: 2-0

For the Season:

Against the spread: 2-0-0

Straight up: 2-0

5:30 PM: Northwestern @ No. 2 Ohio State (-16.5)

The frisky Wildcats took the top-seeded Buckeyes to overtime the last time they met, before losing in the 2011 Big Ten Tournament. Had they won, they probably would have made their first ever NCAA tournament. Now, with another realistic shot of ending that historic run of futility, Northwestern hopes they can start conference play on the right foot.

Discipline, unorthodox and deadly from behind the three-point line, the 10-2 Wildcats are tailor-made to pull an upset. However, they are 0-2 against ranked teams this season, getting pounded by a physically overwhelming Baylor squad—and more recently—losing a close game at Creighton. They have two All-Big Ten caliber scorers in John Shurna and Drew Crawford, both of whom can explode for 30-plus points on any given night.

On the other side of the court, the 12-1 Buckeyes have looked dominant when Jared Sullinger has been on the floor. They stayed competitive before losing on the road against Kansas in the absence of their double-double machine, which was a testament to how talented the rest of the supporting cast is.

If Sullinger is able to play anywhere near his healthy potential, then he and DeShaun Thomas should be able to dominate the paint against a small Northwestern team that struggles to grab rebounds (especially when they play their patented 1-3-1 zone). That being said, Aaron craft's defensive prowess might be wasted: He's too small to guard either Shurna or Crawford, and the Wildcats are experienced enough to hang in a hostile environment.

I wouldn't put the Buckeyes on Upset Alert, but the game could be closer than people expect. Even if the Bucks go up big, the Wildcats' three-point prowess makes them a threat for a backdoor cover.

Against the Spread: Northwestern +16.5

Straight Up: Ohio State

7:30 PM: No. 13 Indiana @ No. 16 Michigan State (-6)

One of the most anticipated contests of the early conference season pits two of the nation's hottest teams—neither of whom have lost since November 15th (or, in Indiana's case, not at all).

On the whole, the Hoosiers have played an easy schedule, but they go into conference play undefeated, and own the signature win of the entire college basketball season after beating then top-ranked Kentucky. Beating the odds-on national title favorites helped legitimize Indiana Basketball for the first time in the Tom Crean era, but now they're tasked with living up to the expectations they have set.

Awaiting them in East Lansing is a confident Spartan squad, who has overcome an 0-2 start against UNC and Duke, and looked very impressive in rattling off ten straight wins. This looks much more like a Tom Izzo team than the 2010 version did, as they have dominated the glass, and own one of the nation's top rebounding margins.

It'll be interesting to see how Indiana's stud freshman Cody Zeller matches up with Michigan State's wily senior captain, Draymond Green. Zeller has the brighter future, but Green's game has no weakness, and his experience might play a major factor in this game.

Indiana is lucky to be visiting the Breslin Center while the students are off on winter break, as they are sure not to encounter a typical Izzone experience. But MSU is a state school, so that student section isn't too far away, and they should be able to put a little bit of pressure on the young Hoosiers.

Expect a close one from start to finish, with the Spartans making just a few more plays down the stretch. Both teams are very young, but Draymond Green might make the difference in this one.

Against the Spread: Michigan State (-6)

Straight Up: Michigan State

9:30 PM: Purdue (-4.5) @ Iowa

The Boilermakers have struggled at times to cope with the losses of E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson to the NBA, but still enter Big Ten play with a 10-3 record. They have decent wins over Iona, Temple and Miami, while their only bad loss has come to Butler—a team that has played in two straight national championship games.

Purdue can still defend with almost any team in the country, but they've found scoring to be more of a chore than usual this season. Robbie Hummel returned from injures in both knees, and picked up right where he left off, but he needs some help.

Iowa came into the season with a new look under coach Fran McCaffery.

Now in year two of the transition from the plodding, methodical style of Todd Lickliter, the Hawkeyes have embraced the uptempo style that McCaffery preaches—to the tune of 78.1 points per game. We all remember how explosive McCaffery's teams at Siena were a few years back.

They enter conference play coming off a solid victory over Boise State, and they should be able to use their home court advantage to stay in this game for a while. It'll be interesting to see how their offense fairs against Purdue's stingy D, as the Boilers work to slow the game down as much as possible.

It's worth noting that Iowa upset then sixth-ranked Purdue in the last game of the season last year, delivering a crushing blow to the Boilermakers' hope at a No. 1 seed in March. Not only does this demonstrate how McCaffery has beaten Matt Painter before, it also serves as a humbling reminder that weird things happen in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Against the Spread: Iowa +4.5

Straight Up: Purdue