Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets: Stuck in the Middle

Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
And I'm wondering what it is I should do,
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,
Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

-Stealers Wheel, "Stuck in the Middle with You"

If you're a fan of the NBA, and sports in general, all you can ask of the teams you follow is that they have a plan. Whether it's adding a necessary piece to the puzzle or shedding a horrible contract or two, the idea is that you know where the team is headed and how committed the front-office is to building not just a winning team but a title-contender.

Since 1980, only eight teams have won an NBA championship: the Lakers (8 titles), Bulls (6), Spurs (4), Celtics (3), Pistons (3),  Rockets (2), Heat (1), and Sixers (1).

That's it.

By comparison, the National Football League has had 14 different Super Bowl champions and Major League Baseball has had 18 different World Series winners in that same 28-year span.

The most obvious reason why the NBA has had so few champions is because the NBA has allowed teams to go above the salary cap to keep it's own free agents. In a sport where only twelve players comprise the active roster, it's much easier to keep a winning team together.

Compare that to baseball where free agency makes it nearly impossible to keep a 25-man team together or football, where non-guaranteed contracts and the salary cap, prevent a 53-man roster from staying together.

What this means is that whether or not an NBA team stays together is completely under the control of ownership. If management wants to keep it's team together then they can.

The problem that goes along with that, though, is that teams run the risk of getting stuck in the middle. The question then becomes what's better—being perennially competitive, but not good enough to win a championship, or rebuilding with a solid foundation and the hope of winning a championship in two or three years?

The NBA's Western Conference is the strongest I can ever remember a conference being from top to bottom. There are an astonishing ten teams that are currently over .500. Compare that to the Eastern Conference, where only five teams are over .500.

But two of those teams, the Rockets and Nuggets, are stuck in the middle. Both teams are good enough to win 50 games but neither team has a realistic chance to win a title any time soon.

The Nuggets have one of the NBA's most talented starting fives as well as a decent bench.  But they are a below-average defensive team, have one of the conference's worst starting point guards, and all of the players they hope they can trade to improve the team have horrible and unattractive contracts.

Surely, the Nuggets knew all of this when they traded Andre Miller for Allen Iverson. Ownership has to be pleased with what the trade has done for them financially since they are one of the league's best road draws.

But basketball-wise, you can't help but wonder if the team regrets making the trade.

At the time of the Iverson trade, the Nuggets had a back-court of Miller and J.R. Smith.  While Smith's production has decreased in his second season with the Nuggets, he was considered the steal of the off-season before last year's trade. After the Bulls acquired Smith from the Hornets in the Tyson Chandler trade, they turned around and traded him to the Nuggets for Howard Eisley and two second-round picks six days later.

For a team that was already over the cap and committed to paying big money salaries to Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Miller and Nene, getting a productive player like Smith for a $1.5 million contract and two second-round picks was a steal.

But the Nuggets were coming off of three consecutive first-round playoff exits. They definitely needed to make a change. But was the addition of Iverson and the loss of Miller the right move to make?

They didn't need any more scoring. They needed defense.

Of the Nuggets five big-salaried players at the time of the trade, two of them, Kenyon Martin and Nene, were deemed untradable due to financial reasons and two of them, Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby, were considered untradable by choice.

That left Miller as their only tradable asset. If he was the only card they had left to play, was Iverson really the right guy to go after? Knowing that Iverson could opt-out of his contract after the 2007-8 season and that trading away their best point guard would leave them dangerously thin at the position, they risked putting themselves in the position they're currently in—good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to win it all.

Even worse, the Nuggets are stuck in this position for at least another two years. Martin's history of knee surgeries and horrible contract make him virtually untradable until at least the 2010-11 season, when his expiring contract tops out at about $16.5 million.

Nene's contract, which runs through the 2011-12 season was considered absurd even before he underwent chemotherapy for testicular cancer earlier this year, especially for a reserve player.

To make matters worse, the Nuggets now have no choice but to re-sign Iverson because even without his contract they are over the salary cap. So if they choose to let him walk then they won't have any cap space to replace him with what the team really needs. They don't have a suitable shooting guard to take his place in the lineup if he leaves.

The Nuggets are headed toward a fifth-consecutive first-round exit. Their current best bargain, Marcus Camby, is now the team's only real asset. He's under contract for two more years and a tad less than $16 million combined. Unfortunately for them, Camby is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. So for a team that's already lacking defensively, the last thing they want to do is trade their best defensive player.

They may not have a choice, though. Nene is expected to make a full recovery and can slide into the starting center spot.

Their only alternative would be to use their mid-level exemption this coming off-season to sign a point guard. The problem with that is that the Nuggets already have the NBA's third-highest salary and are over the luxury tax. So even if they made a run at Sam Cassell, he would cost twice as much with the luxury tax. I'm not sure that ownership is willing to commit that type of money to make a move that really doesn't put them over the top—especially for a 39-year-old point guard with a history of injuries.

But they may not have a choice.

There has also been talk of late that the Nuggets were interested in trading Eduardo Najera's expiring contract to the Kings for Ron Artest. The Kings are not expected to pull the trigger unless they can get Linas Kleiza, the Lithuanian forward with long-range skills and the reasonable $1 million contract. Artest has also said that he no longer wishes to be traded but the decision isn't really his.

While Artest would definitely help them defensively, he'd be plugged in at shooting guard and Iverson would move to the point. Artest is shooting above his career averages in both field-goal and three-point percentage, but he's much better suited for small forward.

Although it's hard to argue that a starting lineup of Anthony, Iverson, Artest, Martin and Camby wouldn't be intimidating. But would it be enough to get them past the second round?

The other negative about acquiring Artest is that he has the ability to opt-out at season's end. While Artest's behavior will definitely cost him when it comes to the amount of years on his next contract, he will be looking for a contract in the $15 million  a year range for three years. The luxury tax concerns would come into play there since the Nuggets would be looking at an additional $15 million per season in luxury tax payments.

The Nuggets may not have a choice, though. The only alternative to continuously adding payroll and hoping that something works is to trade Camby or wait it out until Martin's contract is up in 2011. That might be too big a risk defensively and too long to wait if the team expects to re-sign Anthony, when he can opt-out that same summer.

You can't fault Nugget's owner Stan Kroenke. He's committed a lot of money to try to win a championship and he hasn't given up yet. Although it wouldn't be wrong to blame current GM, Mark Warkentien and the team's previous GM, Kiki Vandeweighe, for the contracts and trades that have hurt the team's future and made no improvements to the team's present lack of success.

The Rockets' situation is as much different from the Nuggets as it is alike. The Rockets  haven't been past the first round of the playoffs this century. They're on their third coach in six seasons and have one of the NBA's most injury-prone and overpaid players in Tracy McGrady.

The team's previous GM, Carroll Dawson, didn't do current GM Daryl Morey any favors when he traded Rudy Gay to the Grizzlies for Shane Battier. Even though Battier is a nice role-player and a "glue guy", Gay would have given the Rockets exactly what they needed, considering McGrady's history of injuries. He's also shown the Grizzlies enough promise that they felt comfortable trading away Pau Gasol for nothing and making him the new cornerstone of the franchise.

Morey didn't help himself either when he traded Juwan Howard for point guard Mike James, drafted another point guard, Aaron Brooks, two weeks later, and then signed another point guard, Steve Francis, three weeks after that.

The problem with the Rockets is that the roster is unbalanced and has been poorly constructed. They have five points guards, none of whom are considered great, and four power forwards who are all considered average in a conference that features most of the NBA's best big men.

When you look at their roster, it's actually a miracle that they're 12 games over .500.

Heading into the All-Star Break, they were the Western Conference's hottest team, having won 8 straight games and nine out of their last 10. But a closer look at the streak would show you that the three road wins during the streak were against the lowly Pacers, Wolves and Bucks. They did, however,  have impressive victories at home over the Warriors, Cavs, and Blazers.

Their biggest concern, however, is that they've committed more than half of their cap space to two players that don't seem capable of leading a team to a championship.

I don't envy Morey's position at all. McGrady looks like his best days are behind him, and Yao looks like a great role player getting paid superstar money who can't be traded for the next ten years because of how much money he generates for the organization.

McGrady has two more years left on his contract for close to a combined $45 million. After seeing Shaq get traded, it's not inconceivable that McGrady could be traded before he's in the final year of his contract, but it's unlikely. At that point, the Rockets might be better off letting his contract expire and using the available cap space to go after the player or players that can better compliment Yao.

Unless they can unload Battier, James or Rafer Alston, the Rockets won't look much different next season and possibly the season after that, as well. That's when McGrady's contract will have expired and the Rockets will only be committed to Yao, Battier and Brooks. There are a number of NBA players who call Houston their home in the off-season so it shouldn't be difficult for them to find a free agent or two to help build around. The fact that there's no state income tax in Texas doesn't hurt either.

If they do plan to make a move then Battier seems the most logical choice to go. He makes a reasonable amount of money for how much he produces but he'd be much more valuable to a team like the Pistons. Battier is the final piece of the puzzle and not a building block. They gave up the 8th pick in the draft to get him. They'd be lucky to get a lottery pick if they chose to trade him again.

In the meantime, the Rockets will have to focus on bringing in more role players at reasonable salaries so that they can make an impact and compete for a championship once McGrady is gone. They need to make sure they're responsible with how they give out contracts so that they'll be able to give someone a max contract when the time comes. 

The Rockets will probably be picking somewhere in the middle of this year's draft. They will probably have to use their pick to find a suitable back-up for Yao, possibly Georgetown's Roy Hibbert or UCLA's Kevin Love.

Their only notable free agent this off-season is Bonzi Wells. The Rockets will definitely keep him if he's willing to sign a one or two-year contract. But he's gone if another team comes calling offering more years or more money since this is more than likely going to be the last significant contract Wells will get.

The Rockets financial situation isn't as dire as the Nuggets although they too are in the top-ten in total team salaries. Unlike the Nuggets, though, the Rockets can spend their mid-level exemption to bring in a player without it counting twice with the luxury tax.

Most of the free agents they could afford this off-season, like Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, or James Posey, aren't really better than Battier. They might be better off going after cheaper players looking for a fresh start, like Houston-native Gerald Green or James Jones, a 3-point specialist that would open up the floor for Yao and McGrady.

Unless Brooks and/or fellow rookie, Luis Scola, can turn into a superstars, the Rockets will probably stay where they are—good enough to compete for the seventh or eighth seed but not good enough to get past the first round.

The Spurs, Mavs and Suns are clearly the favorites in the West based on personnel and experience. Phoenix and Dallas got a little older this week with the additions of Shaquille O'Neal and the (expected) addition of Jason Kidd, respectively. The defending-champion Spurs have eleven players on their roster that are 30 or over, six of whom are over 33.

The Lakers, Jazz, Hornets, Blazers and Warriors are well-positioned to supplant those three in the next two years.

The Wolves, Grizzlies, Sonics, and now the Kings, are clearly in rebuilding mode so their fans have lowered expectations. All four teams have made it clear through their most recent transactions that they are building their teams around Al Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Kevin Durant and Kevin Martin, respectively.

All four are trying to position themselves to be where the Lakers, Jazz, Hornets, Blazers and Warriors are in just a couple of years. Times might be a little tough in the meantime, but at least their fans know the team has a plan and there's hope.

Then there are the Clippers who don't really know who they are, thanks to injuries.

The Nuggets and Rockets need to figure out which group they are in. Are they trying to win right now, in a couple years, or in five years?

Neither team, as currently constructed, can win right now. It's the NBA's version of an identity crisis. At some point both ownership groups are going to stop spending just to spend and by then it might be too late with their current groups.

While the Nuggets keep putting band-aids on headaches, the Rockets seem lost with no direction.

In both cases, though, it's only a matter of time before fans realize that there's no chance for hope, and they'll have no choice but to blow things up.