Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

The 5-9 Buffalo Bills will host the 8-6 Denver Broncos on Saturday afternoon in a game that is absolutely vital to the Broncos' playoff hopes. With just a one-game lead in the AFC West, the Broncos absolutely must defeat the Bills to stay on track for the playoffs.

Denver began the season 1-4, but after head coach John Fox made Tim Tebow the starting quarterback in favor of Kyle Orton, things turned around. Tebow is 7-2 as a starter this year, and he has continually made magic happen late in games. The Broncos must still be wary of the San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders lurking one game back, though.

The Bills' season has pretty much gone the opposite way, as it began with great promise. Buffalo stormed out of the gates with a 5-2 record and looked to be a player in the AFC East. The Bills have suffered tons of injuries and lost seven straight games since, however, as they are now playing for draft pick positioning.

While the Bills will certainly want to win their final home game of the season, the Broncos should and will be the more desperate team. All signs point to the Broncos coming out on top, but the Bills did help spoil the Broncos' playoff hopes a couple years back, and they have plans to do it again this season.

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.

When: Saturday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. EST

Watch: CBS 4 (Denver), blacked out in Buffalo area

Spread: Denver (-3)

The Bills have found all kinds of different ways to lose during their seven-game slide, and while some of them have been close games, it is safe to say that they never really even had a chance in the majority. Conversely, the Broncos have been winning plenty of games lately, but essentially all of them have been close.

With that said, something has to give as the Broncos are three-point favorites in this game. The Bills rank 29th against the run, while the Broncos have the No. 1 rushing offense in football. Because of that, I tend to believe that the Broncos will be able to possess the ball, control the clock and win by a fairly comfortable margin.

Over/Under: 41.5

Most of the Broncos' wins have been fairly low-scoring affairs, although they have worked in a couple shootouts against the New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders. The Bills have played in six straight games where at least 40 total points were scored due mostly to the ineptitude of their defense.

With that in mind, I tend to say that this game will beat over by a slight margin. It certainly isn't inconceivable to see this game go under 41.5 points, but I have to lean toward the over due to the Bills awful defense and the Broncos' penchant for scoring points over the past few games.

Broncos Key Injuries

Questionable: DB David Bruton (Achilles), DB Brian Dawkins (neck)

Probable: RB Willis McGahee (hamstring), TE Daniel Fells (thumb), DL Brodrick Bunkley (knee), LB Von Miller (thumb)

Bills Key Injuries

Questionable: RB Johnny White (concussion), WR Steve Johnson (groin), WR Ruvell Martin (hamstring), TE Scott Chandler (ankle)

Fantasy Big Plays

QB Tim Tebow (DEN): There is no question that Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow is one of the more unorthodox signal callers in the game, but you simply can't deny the fact that he has been a very useful fantasy player this season. Not only has his passing improved, as he has thrown for at least 194 yards in three straight games, but his rushing ability takes him to another level, and it will certainly take a toll on the Bills.

RB Willis McGahee (DEN): While in Baltimore last season, it looked like running back Willis McGahee was just about on his last legs. He has found new life in Denver's option offense, though, as the go-to back. McGahee has been a major part of the offense, as he has 990 rushing yards, five total touchdowns and averages nearly five yards per carry. Look for McGahee to have a field day against his former team in Buffalo.

Keys to Broncos Win

In order for the Broncos to win this game they have to do two very simple things: run the ball effectively and create a pass rush. The Bills are among the worst teams in the league when it comes to stopping the run and the Broncos are the best at running it, so the first part of the equation shouldn't be an issue. Tebow and McGahee simply have to continue to grind out yardage on the ground.

Defensively, Denver will be working against a patchwork offensive line, so bookends Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil could be in for huge games. The Bills have actually been good in terms of not allowing sacks, but much of that is due to quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's ability to get rid of the ball. Even if the Broncos can simply lay some hits on Fitz, though, it should do wonders.

Keys to Bills Win

The best thing the Bills can do in this game is force Tim Tebow to beat them through the air. While he very well may be able to do so against Buffalo's mediocre secondary, it is the Bills' best chance to win. That, of course, will involve buckling down against the run, which is easier said than done for the Bills.

On offense, balance is key. Too often, the Bills are forced to stray away from the run do to being behind in games. Running back C.J. Spiller has been effective in the absence of injured star Fred Jackson, and it is vital to get the ball in his hands. Provided Spiller is effective on the ground, Fitzpatrick will have more opportunities to utilize the spread offense and pick apart the Denver defense.

Prediction

Broncos 27, Bills 17