NFL Week 16 Picks: Division Leaders on High Upset Alert

Being a division leader is not supposed to be such a nerve wracking experience. You are the king of your domain, and everyone is looking up to you. The end of the season is supposed to be a joyous occasion when you are celebrating a playoff berth. 

However, this is also the time of year when teams fighting for a wild-card berth will do anything and everything they can to steal a victory. In some cases, that desperation can cause a team to play better. In other cases, it can destroy them. 

Of course, not all upsets are going to come from teams fighting for a playoff spot. That's how the NFL works: When you think you have something figured out, everything gets blown up. 

I believe that there are a few teams that will rally this week to pull off upsets against teams leading their division.

 

Denver Broncos (Minus-3) vs. Buffalo Bills 

This is not an overreaction to the Broncos loss last week. They have a lot of problems that have been masked by Tim Tebow comebacks and a mediocre schedule. 

The Bills are not exactly a powerhouse, as evidenced by their current six-game losing streak, but they do have enough talent on offense to force the Broncos to get out of their offensive rhythm and throw the ball more than they have to. 

Tebow is not going to magically be able to throw the ball—I don't care how bad the Bills defense is—and he will find that life isn't so easy in the NFL. 

Bills 27, Broncos 21

 

San Francisco 49ers (Minus-2) at Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are coming off a hard fought, emotional victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, but now they have to play after just four days off against the red-hot Seahawks. 

After a slow start to the season, Pete Carroll's team has found a rhythm and look like a dangerous wild-card contender. Marshawn Lynch is scoring touchdowns, although he didn't have a lot of yards against Chicago last week. 

While I do think that part of the Seahawks' success lately has come due to a weak schedule, the 49ers have had problems in the red zone all year and that is going to lead to some losses that we don't see coming. 

Seahawks 20, 49ers 17

 

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (Minus-7)

You can make an argument that the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC right now. While I wouldn't go that far, I am not so arrogant that I won't listen to another person try to convince me. 

Despite how well they have been playing, the Falcons are the perfect team to cool them off. They know them as well as anyone and, even though they lost in overtime, have already played a great game against them this season. 

Where the Falcons have improved since that first meeting is in their passing offense. Julio Jones has emerged as the deep threat that they need in order to keep up with the top teams in the conference. 

Falcons 31, Saints 28

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