NBA Fantasy Projections: The 9 High-Profile Players You Should Not Draft

On Dec. 25, we won't be looking underneath our trees for the best gift of them all. We will be glued to our television sets to watch something we so dearly missed, the NBA season.

With the Christmas Day tip-offs, we will be receiving a revitalized, but shortened, NBA season, and a fantasy season that almost didn't happen. Luckily for us, however, we will get an NBA season, and therefore a return of fantasy basketball.

Players must keep some things in mind with this shortened season. There is less rest time in between games, less offseason camp and practices and a shortened free agency period that could potentially leave valuable pieces unsigned heading into the first week of action.

In your draft, you will want to look to avoid players that are aging, injury-prone or won't live up to their potential draft hype.

In fantasy basketball only one thing matters: production. Having big names on paper doesn't always lead to production, and knowing each of your player's strengths and weaknesses allows you to draft a team with chemistry.

Whether you are in a roto or head-to-head league, having a team with chemistry is as important as it is on the court. Being able to account for all facets of the game will bring you success and allow you to obtain your ultimate goal: a championship. Here are 11 guys that you should avoid on draft day.

Amare Stoudemire

Amare "STAT" Stoudemire was one of fantasy basketball's most productive big men last season, and looked to be hitting stride back in Mike D'antoni's high powered offensive system. Before the All-Star break Amare had emerged as one of fantasy basketball's top ten players, and was filling up the stat sheet in an early MVP-like campaign. He was developing a strong rapport with pick and roll point guard Raymond Felton, and the upstart Knicks were enjoying a great deal of success featuring a strong supporting cast of role players. 

Their main reason for success rested on the shoulder of Amare. STAT emerged as a fantasy juggernaut blocking over two shots a game for the first few months of the season, securing nearly ten boards a game, and scoring well over 25 points per contest. Amare even enjoyed an obscene stretch of form where he poured in at least 30 points for nine straight games, including eight Knick victories.

Amare continued to pour it in until the impending arrival of Carmelo Anthony. Anthony was shipped to the Big Apple on February 22nd, and with his entrance came the departure of pick and roll point guard Raymond Felton. Stoudemire's value suffered with Melo on the floor. Over the next month he saw a reduced amount of field goal attempts, rebounds, blocks, steals, and points. His numbers took a heavy hit, and those who rode him into the playoffs most likely didn't fare as well as they had hoped.

With injured Baron Davis arriving, and Toney Douglas taking over the reins, the point guard position is in a flux. Amare will have value, and don't let him slip too far, but I think his numbers will drop compared to last year, with Melo in the picture. I would feel comfortable drafting Amare toward the very end of the first round to the middle of the second round. In ESPN standard fantasy basketball drafts he has an average draft position of 10.8, I believe this is too high. Amare will get his, he'll rebound the basketball, block shots, and score, but he won't put up the numbers he did before Melo got to town. I'd avoid the Knickerbocker, and focus my attention elsewhere. I like Carmelo Anthony toward the end of the first round to the middle of the second round. Grab Baron Davis late if you can, and especially if your league has an IR spot. I'd avoid Tyson Chandler, but get him in the 7th to 8th round to add depth to your big men

Stephen Curry

Who could forget Curry's sophomore season at Davidson? Curry finished 5th in the NCAA in scoring, and earned Davidson a tenth seed in the NCAA tournament. The 2007-08 tournament was one for the ages as Curry led Davidson to upset wins over Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin, with Curry going off for over 30 points in each contest. Before being defeated by top seeded Kansas, Curry had already established himself as a potential lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft, but was hauled by execs as he chose to return to Davidson for his junior year to continue his development.

It was his junior year in a game against Furman University where Curry first rolled his ankle. It was a mild injury at the time, and he only missed one game, his first and only of his college career, but a problem that continued to develop upon his arrival to the Association. Perhaps the only weakness to his game is his durability. Though he only missed seven games last season, his ankle history should be very worrisome to those that are looking to invest a first round pick in the Golden State Point Guard, especially after getting surgery on it this offseason.

I am one of the biggest supporters of new head coach Mark Jackson, and I believe he will help develop Steph Curry into one of the NBA's most formidable point guards. However, I am very scared of Curry's ankle. After injuring it during a preseason game Tuesday night, I would try my best to avoid investing a first or second round pick in the point guard.

Curry is currently being drafted 13th overall in ESPN standard drafts, and that is far too high for the injury prone guard. When he is on the court, he is one of the best in the game. He'll hit two three's a game, shoot 90 percent from the line, give you 20 points a game, and dish out a fair share of dimes. But, he needs to be on the court to deliver these numbers. I really like David Lee this year with late second round to mid third round value, especially if Curry were to miss time. Also, don't be afraid to reach for Monta Ellis in the first round, he appears to be a changed man, and maybe that has matured his game beyond scoring. Dorell Wright will hit three's, and fill up other stat categories as well. If you can get him in the late fourth round or fifth, don't hesitate to pull the trigger. Take Ekpe Udoh as a late round flier.

Kobe Bryant

Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. What hasn't this man amassed during his prolific 15-year NBA career? Kobe's on court resume is one of the most impressive in the history of the game, and you can argue that he has cemented himself as a top ten player of all-time. But why isn't Mamba flying off of draft boards? Currently being drafted at 13.6 in ESPN standard drafts, Kobe isn't being reached for or scooped up with confidence. What gives?

Kobe played in all 82 games last year, played in over 33 minutes during those games, and averaged over 25 points. It's our short term memory that makes Kobe a difficult player to reach for in our drafts. In an off season that saw Kobe nearly join Italian side Virtus Bologna, and take on an NBA World Tour with the likes of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, Kobe didn't do much other then work out and focus on his game.

The long layoff appeared to be good for players like Mamba, as it would give him more time to help rest and prepare his 33 year old body for a shortened, but more hectic 66 game schedule. My main issue with Bryant is durability. In a preseason game with the Clippers on December 19th, Kobe left the game with a wrist injury that initially appeared to be minor. After further inspection and testing, it has been reported that Kobe suffered torn ligaments in his shooting wrist, and has no timetable for return.

Bryant is one of the toughest dudes in the league, and I don't see this wrist injury shelving him for the opener, but with an experimental knee surgery in the summer, coupled with the wrist, I can see it affecting Bryant on the floor. His minutes will likely be monitored, and it is yet to be seen how his injuries will affect his shooting, distributing, and burst. Not to mention his divorce settlement, Kobe is a guy I would avoid in fantasy drafts. Look to land him in the late second round or early third, or let somebody else take him. Though Pau Gasol could be moved in the upcoming weeks, he is the only Laker I would draft with confidence in the early rounds. Aim for Gasol in the middle of the second round, but don't reach. Take Devin Ebanks as a flier late in your draft; the kids got upside and should see an increase in minutes if Kobe were to miss time.

Blake Griffin

I recall watching Blake Griffin when he was a member of the Oklahoma Sooners. Surrounded by a young Willie Warren, his brother Taylor, and couple three point shooters, Blake would consistently draw double and triple teams whenever he touched the ball in the paint. It didn't matter, as Griffin's athleticism was constantly on display, showcasing talent that made NBA executives drool. He was the complete package, raw athleticism, a vertical jump that could be measured in yards, and jump shot that could be easily developed.

The Clippers landed the first pick, but had to believe they were cursed when the rookie went down with a broken knee cap after a thunderous dunk in the final preseason game. After being shelved for an entire year, one in which he worked on his strength and development, Griffin slipped down draft boards and was being taken as late as the sixth round. Those that were patient in landing him, and even those that reached, were heavily rewarded during the Rookie of the Year's All-Star campaign.

He averaged an impressive 22.5 points and 12.1 rebounds while constantly occupying ESPN's Top 10 plays. My beef with Griffin is that outside of points, rebounds, and field goal percentage, he doesn't bring much, if anything, to the table. I think he will block more than half a shot per game this season, but I wouldn't bet on it. If you are drafting first round value, you must look beyond electrifying dunks, and single game performances, while focusing on the box score.When drafting a big man in the first round, you want something other than points and rebounds. Take Kevin Love for instance, he doesn't block shots, or accumulate steals, but the added dimension of his three point stroke, along with his free throw percentage, gives him very solid first round value. He is a guy I would take over Griffin in a heart beat.

Some may argue that the arrival of Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul will elevate the "Blake Show's" game, but I'd argue the opposite. These are two All-Star point guards, occupying the same starting back court, that need the ball in their hands to be effective. This will take away touches and field goal attempts from Griffin, and could leave him out in the cold. Blake Griffin is currently being taken at 13.9 in ESPN standard drafts, but I would avoid him and let somebody else fill a roster spot. I like CP3 as a top three pick, and Chauncey Billups if you are willing to reach in the fifth or sixth round. I expect DeAndre Jordan to put up similar numbers as he did last year, don't reach on the Clipper center.

John Wall

John Wall busted on to the scene as a rookie and looked to be one of the most promising draft steals of the season. With a 14 point, nine assist, three steal NBA debut, owners had a reason to grin. Owners were doing more than grinning after Wall had nine steals in his third career NBA game. But there is so much more to a high valued fantasy point guard than what Wall brings to the table.

John Wall also averaged a shade under four turnovers a game, shot 41 percent from the field, only hit half a three a game, and shoot poorly from the stripe. Points, assists, and steals go a long way for a fantasy point guard, but those that are truly elite, those of first or second round value, must contribute from behind the arc, and at the free throw stripe. Wall does neither particularly well, and while I believe these numbers will only improve, I'm not sold on the second year Wildcat.

Another factor working against John Wall is the inexperience of his team. A log jam at the two guard is Wall's first obstacle. Two young players, Jordan Crawford and Nick Young, have never taken a shot they didn't like, and demand the ball to be effective. You would hope to see a more urgent effort to win in Washington, but with the inexperience of the squad it is hard to imagine that they will gel enough to produce over 25 wins in a season. Andray Blatche will be a viable asset to Wall, but he missed 18 games last season with a shoulder and is never a strong bet to play an entire slate of games. Wall himself missed 13 games last season with knee and foot injuries, and his durability is also questionable.

I think Wall has a great chance to shine, and there have been nothing but rave reviews coming out of his camp this summer. It is an encouraging sight to see young players doing everything in their power to stay and shape while making a determined effort to become better. I think Wall's shooting numbers will be better, but not good enough to go live up to his 17.2 average draft position in ESPN standard leagues. Wall will dish out dimes, and stockpile steals, but won't score enough or contribute in other categories to salvage his draft stock. There isn't enough ball to satisfy everybody in Washington, and the players are too young to mesh as a formidable unit.

I would feel comfortable having a point guard like Kyle Lowry, who you can get much later, rather than splurging to get Wall. I am a big fan of Andray Blatche, and if he can stay healthy getting him in the late fifth to early sixth round would be a steal. Javale McGee is the most intriguing player on the Washington roster. He is going in the sixth round, and I'd say that's appropriate value. He has a chance to be one of this seasons most pleasant surprises. Nick Young and Jordan Crawford are both great fantasy options, when they are getting minutes. Don't reach on either as it is yet to be seen how Coach Saunders will utilize his back court.

Danny Granger

Experienced owners know the story with Pacer small forward Danny Granger, owners last year know the tale, and Pacer fans could perhaps deliver the most detailed anecdote on the Indiana number one scoring option. The stat stuffer burst on to the scene after an impressive 07-08 season, after being promoted to the starting lineup during his previous year. He averaged a shade under 20 points a game, and showed promise to be a fantasy elite in the 08-09 season.

Granger certainly lived up to that hype, as reaching owners were rewarded for taking the risk, as he averaged 25 points, five boards, one steal, one block, and 2.7 treys per game. He followed similar suit in the 09-10 season, as the Pacers continued to struggle to amass victories under coach Jim O'Brien. Team achievements aside, Granger was a premier fantasy option during these seasons, with his only issue being durability, missing over thirty games during both seasons combined.

It was last season's campaign that shed true light on the Granger situation. With team aspirations in sight, and the Pacers staff believing in a playoff run, Granger's number wasn't being called upon as heavily. His field goal attempts, three pointers made, and points per game took a significant drop, as Pacer wins began to pile up, especially after hiring interim coach Frank Vogel. With Vogel back in the mix, and deep squad, I expect Granger to settle down. Granger has always been known for his poor shot selection, and that simply won't fly with Vogel at the helm in Indiana, they have too many other options, and are desperate to go over .500 this season.

Expect Granger to continue to put up solid defensive numbers, but not follow suit with his offensive production. He is currently being taken 28th in ESPN standard leagues, and I think that is too high. Let somebody else take Granger, unless he falls to the early fourth round, which isn't a likely scenario. The rest of Indiana is befuddling. The starting point guard position isn't clear with Darren Collison and George Hill both vying for the job, and the starting power forward position is an even bigger head scratcher. Why Larry Bird would run out to sign David West doesn't make much sense when Tyler Hansbrough was budding as Indiana's starting power forward last season. Roy Hibbert is the only Pacer I would take a chance on, but I have never been a fan of his game as he lacks elite athleticism and has trouble staying on the floor. I would avoid Indiana as a whole from a fantasy perspective, with my only roll of the dice being on Tyler Hansbrough. He showed true breakout potential last season, and could be a double-double machine if given minutes.

Tyreke Evans

Tyreke Evans was one of the best fantasy rookies in recent memories. Coming out of Memphis, scouts boasted about his all-around ability, and the Sacremento Kings were lucky enough to secure his talents with the fourth pick in the 2009 draft. Evans was thrust in to the starting point guard role, and started all 72 games he participated in. Young in age, Tyreke's athleticism and body control at the point guard position were a refreshing sight at the point guard position. After his rookie year, in which he averaged 20 points, five assists, and five rebounds, Evans was destined to be one of fantasy's brightest stars for years to come.

The 2010-2011 season wasn't as star studded for the breakout point guard. His numbers dissipated, and he shot a horrid 41 percent from the field. Along with a decline in his numbers, he was hobbled by plantar fasciitis in his left foot, causing him to miss 19 games. In the other games, he played hobbled, and it showed in his performance. Being able to play almost all 82 games, or in this case 66, at near max capacity is important for any high value fantasy target, and I'm not sure Tyreke Evans will be able to carry the load.

Reports out of Kings' camp are also not exciting to potential owners. Evans reportedly showed up to camp overweight and out of shape, and is already missing practices due to his troubled foot. He is too turnover prone, his jump shot isn't proven, and he doesn't dish out enough assists. It was mildly encouraging that Samuel Dalembert left for Houston, as there will be a more defined center and power forward situation in Sacramento, but that won't be nearly enough to salvage Tyreke.

He is currently going at the beginning of the third round in ESPN standard drafts, but you could do better. I would rather own a guy like Jrue Holiday who is in a better situation, and has a bright future ahead of him. I like Demarcus Cousins this year, though he can be a risk to miss games. He will get a lot of burn, and a lot of the ball, aim for the sixth round. The power forward situation remains vague, as Jason Thompson and JJ Hickson battle for a starting spot. I see Hickson starting game one, but the situation remaining undefined. Marcus Thornton excites me, and he's the guy on Sac Town that I'd want to own. He can light it up and is destined to lead the Kings in scoring. He is falling to the sixth round, but don't be afraid to reach on the two guard, he'll pick up right where he left off last year.

Andrew Bynum

For one, it is never encouraging to not know the future of one of your players. For another, it isn't encouraging that one of your players has never started in more than 65 games in a season. Andrew Bynum was drafted out of high school in 2005 with the tenth overall selection, and with enough potential to fill an entire gym. We have been able to see some of this potential, in spurts, during his time on the floor.

Coupled with Pau Gasol, the Lakers boast a formidable starting front line, as the two bigs defend the paint well, and posses a variety of different shots and abilities. Bynum's role will need to increase as well, as the Lakers lack true post depth. They signed Josh McRoberts, and invested a lot of faith in youngster Derrick Carcter, who has already been sidelined for multiple weeks after undergoing knee surgery. Needless to say, Bynum's role will need to increase.

Coach Mike Brown has already stated that we will see an increase in Bynum's minutes, but I will believe it when I see it. Hosting a number of injuries during his career, it is unlikely Bynum's knees will be able to handle an increased workload in Brown's new system. Even when Bynum has been able to stay on the court, his numbers don't wow owners. During his 65 game season in 2009-10, Bynum averaged 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. These are impressive numbers, and I do expect him to block more shots, but I would not invest a fourth round pick in Andrew Bynum. Also keep in mind that he will be forced to miss the first five games of the season due to a suspension from last years playoffs.

In ESPN standard drafts he is going at pick 43.1 ahead of Nene, Andrew Bogut, and Serge Ibaka. Even with Bogut's injury history, these are three guys I would wait around to take rather than reaching on Bynum. There are plenty of guys to gather even later in the draft, and one that opens my eyes is Marc Gasol, currently being picked up at 63.1 in ESPN standard leagues. My only piece of advice is don't be left out in the cold when the bigs begin to fly off the board. Many fantasy drafts are dictated by trends, and when mid round bigs start being heavily drafted, don't be afraid to reach on the one you think will have the best season.

Kevin Garnett

This name shouldn't show up as a surprise on this list. Kevin Garnett is entering his 17th NBA season and will go down as one of the greatest and most versatile power forwards to play the game. The Big Three in Boston are slowly leaving their prime, and in the next couple seasons we will begin to witness their demise. The most likely candidate to begin that slow descent is Mr. Garnett.

KG played in a whopping 71 games last year, and averaged over 30 minutes in these contests. These numbers are sure to decline with the NBA condensed schedule. While one could make the argument that the extended layoff was good for a team of veterans like the Boston Celtics, it is hard to imagine guys like Garnett, Paul Pierce, and even Ray Allen playing five games a week consistently. I expect KG to play about 28 minutes a game, and his numbers to decline across the board.

A defensive captain, and a player that has always been determined to sacrifice in order to win basketball games, KG will still be able to put up decent fantasy numbers, as long as he can stay on the floor. That is the main concern with Boston's big three, staying on the floor effectively for a plethora of quick hitting games. KG is a tough dude, and fitness has never been a concern, but now being on the wrong side of 30, Doc Rivers will need to do his best to monitor playing time, and has already been cited as saying that Garnett's minutes will be reduced.

Talk is cheap however, and the Celtics are extremely thin at front line, especially after losing Jeff Green for the entire season. With Jermaine O'neal being the only legitimate center depth, KG will be forced to slide over to play big more than he'd like. While that does wonders for his eligibility and rebounding numbers, his minutes won't be high enough to salvage his value. He is currently going at 64.4, and that is too high. Wait until the 6th round to scoop up Kevin Garnett. Jermaine O'neal is an intriguing option at center, but is never a sure thing to stay healthy. Paul Pierce is heading in to the 66 game season with a hobbled foot (heel) so let him slip and try to avoid the risk. Ray Allen will likely carry a large scoring load and getting him in the fifth or sixth round is a steal. I'm not a Rajon Rondo lover, but he should see an increase in scoring this year, aim for the end of the second round. Take Brandon Bass as a late flier, he should receive nice minutes, and will step in to start if Garnett or O'Neal go down.