NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Let's open with a reminder: Houston and Indianapolis are playing on Thursday night, and the meat of the NFL slate is being played out on Saturday afternoon.

While scheduling the bulk of your football watching on Christmas Eve might not affect some people, the majority of us will have to plan accordingly, whether it's hooking up your Slingbox before heading out of town or crafting an excuse to do three extra hours of "last-minute Christmas shopping." ("Honey, you wouldn't believe this traffic!")

The Sunday night and Monday night games will roll on as scheduled. 

Now let's get on to the business at hand. My picks went 7-8-1 last season, which brings me to 103-110-11 on the season. I've done the math: I'm 13 games below the profitability line of 52.38 percent, so I'll have to pick out of my mind to reach that mark with only 32 games left in the regular season (I'm resetting the counter for the playoffs).

For those of you employing the Bet Against Josh System, you're only at 51.64 percent right now, so you're also losing, albeit a little less.

A couple other notes: Home teams are listed in capital letters. Indianapolis, Buffalo and Seattle are home underdogs this weekend, and the Pittsburgh-St. Louis game had no line.

Enough chatter. Let's pick some games.

Houston -6.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

Colts quarterback and Official Covering Machine (tm) Dan Orlovsky led his team to its first outright win of the season against the Titans last week. Can the Colts make it two in a row? No.

No, they can't.

Even though T.J. Yates struggled last week (he threw two picks), the Texans did run into a Carolina team on the rise. I think Houston returns to form this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. 

Denver -3 over BUFFALO

The Tim Tebow Experience heads east, and this time with the blessings of Broncos team president John Elway, which makes sense because no fan wants to start 2012 wearing the jersey of a player that your team just traded away.

For this game, I'm picking the team that didn't give up 203 yards rushing to Reggie Bush last week. 

CINCINNATI -4.5 over Arizona

The Bengals and Cardinals feature two of the most notoriously cheap owners in the league. Even though Cincy is still in the hunt for an AFC wild-card berth, I'd be equally interested to see Mike Brown and Bill Bidwill fight over the dinner check after the game. 

TENNESSEE -8.5 over Jacksonville

I took Jacksonville over the Falcons last week because I liked the Jaguars defense and thought they could make a close game of it. Consider my lesson learned. 

KANSAS CITY -1 over Oakland

After opening his stint as interim head coach with a win against undefeated Green Bay, Romeo Crennel finds himself (mathematically, at least) in the race for the AFC West title. Crennel appears to have the respect of his players, who congratulated him with a Gatorade bath on the sideline last week.

Whether he can win the respect of Chiefs GM Scott Pioli will be another story. 

NEW ENGLAND -10 over Miami

Interim Dolphins head coach Todd Bowles improved his lifetime NFL coaching record to 1-0 with a win in upstate New York last week. This week, they'll play in Foxborough, about an eight-hour drive east of Buffalo. Those guys probably should have just stayed up there. Next week, they'll be playing at the North Pole.

Reggie Bush ran for over 200 yards last week against that Buffalo defense. I'm convinced that Bush could probably throw for over 200 yards against this Patriots defense. That Bill Belichick D still hasn't returned to that dominant level of 2008 (not that any other team has) before they turned half of that unit over.

The only difference is that this year Tom Brady is still outscoring everyone; only Green Bay and New Orleans have scored more points than the Patriots this year.

NEW YORK GIANTS +3 over New York Jets

Both of these teams should be in all capitals in theory, since both of these teams share MetLife Stadium. This game has the feel of one of those college football rivalries where they play for some silly trophy. For this game, the winner should get a giant gold hubcap or a bronze miniature homeless person. Maybe you have a better idea for that.

Anyway, the Giants are not a great pick here; they've lost five of their last six and seem destined to get Tom Coughlin fired.

But that sounds better to me than picking Mark Sanchez, who serves as Exhibit A in every "Worse than Tebow" argument you've had with your friends over the last two months. Sanchez has turned the ball over at least once in seven of his last eight games. He's the gift that keeps on giving...to the other team. I'll take the Giants and the points.

PITTSBURGH over St. Louis (No Line)

Pittsburgh will be coming off a short week. St. Louis will be stepping off the short bus, presumably. Let's move on.

Minnesota +6.5 over WASHINGTON

So who do I take between "mercurial" and "awful"?

Even though DC's team is 2-2 in its last four, Rex Grossman has thrown a pick in every start since Week 2. The Redskins still haven't beaten anyone with a winning record, even though that's a bit of a misnomer since the Giants are 7-7 and Washington beat them twice.

Meanwhile, the Vikings haven't won a game since Halloween and only recently decided to give Joe Webb a look at quarterback (he went 12-of-23 passing in Detroit two weeks ago).

I'm taking "awful" and the points.

CAROLINA -7.5 over Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay went from 10 wins to 10 losses in the span of a year, from Raheem Morris' second year as head coach to his third (the Bucs went 3-13 in 2009).

And last week his team was blown out by the Jaguars. Will the real Raheem Morris please stand up? No, really. Stand up. We need to start cleaning out your office.

BALTIMORE -13 over Cleveland

These teams played each other in Ohio three weeks ago. Baltimore won, 24-10. This is a sure thing. Do you hear me, Joe Flacco? A sure thing. Don't ruin this for me...

DETROIT -2.5 over San Diego

Ndamukong Suh came back with a vengeance last week against Oakland after sitting out two games for stomping on the arm of Packers offensive lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith.

But more surprisingly, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has started every game this season. He has thrown a touchdown pass in every game this season. Every game.

If he keeps this up, I'll have to stop calling him "Fat Stafford."

Philadelphia +2.5 over DALLAS

I'm slightly surprised to see Philly getting points here. The Eagles are 2-0 since Michael Vick returned to action, and somehow they're still not eliminated from the playoffs. In a sense, their playoffs have already begun.

If Dallas wins, it clinches the NFC East and the Eagles are eliminated. But if the Eagles win, the Giants lose this week and then they beat Dallas next week, Philly wins the division on tiebreakers.

I don't know if my journalistic objectivity will allow me to root for a particular BOOOO YOU SUCK JERRY JONES! LET'S GO EAGLES! BOOO TONY ROMO GO BACK TO THE GOLF COURSE!

San Francisco -2.5 over SEATTLE

San Fran will come off a short week to face a hot Seahawks team. Seattle has won—get this—five of its last six, and the Seahawks still have a shot at an NFC wild-card berth.

GREEN BAY -12.5 over Chicago

Here's a list of Chicago's total offensive yardage since it lost Matt Forte: 181 yards, 245 yards, 221 yards.

Julius Peppers might be able to save this from being a blowout, but Green Bay still needs to clinch home-field advantage in a nationally televised Christmas Day...uh...night game.

Atlanta +6.5 over NEW ORLEANS

The line moved from +7 yesterday, which seems sensible since these teams went to overtime in their last meeting in Atlanta. The Saints can lock up the NFC South division with a win here, but their chances of a first-round bye are essentially hopeless.

Atlanta's Michael Turner is third among all rushers with 1,129 yards, including 96 in that aforementioned OT game in Week 10. Expect another good Monday night game, and a close one.