North Carolina Tarheels Basketball: Will Harrison Barnes Reach His Potential?

The Skype chat declaration of his intent to play at the University of North Carolina reverberated through college basketball in 2010, as Harrison Barnes became the latest top-ranked High Schooler to choose the Tar Heels. He seemed to have it all: a great personality and charisma, and was well-spoken and phenomenally talented. 

The bonus on top of all that was his desire to get an education while playing basketball, easing the fears that he would be a one-and-done flash in the pan. The first half of his freshman year was a documented struggle, with too much expectation heaped on teenage shoulders. Being the first freshman pre-season All-American could not be easy under any circumstances, let alone at one of the most scrutinized programs in the country. 

Then there was a change: Larry Drew left, Kendall Marshall became the unrivaled point guard, and Barnes became a different player. He became clutch. He became dominant. He went above the rim and slammed home rebounds, he hit three-pointers and pull-up jumpers and became one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the country. 

He has continued this season as a great offensive threat. He has improved in a number of key offensive categories, such as field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, and points per game, all while averaging fewer minutes than in his freshman year. However, he has slumped off in free throw shooting, rebounds and assists, and his turnover rate has gone up. 

It's not uncommon for a player to swing back and forth with high-and-low averages. It happens all the time in every sport, and is nothing to be concerned about in the short term. What is concerning, however, is that Barnes seems to be locking himself into a jump-shooting role, and neglecting his ability to get to the basket. He is using his shooting talents, but not his physical gifts, and that needs to be rectified in order to get the most out of him. 

It's great that he is shooting nearly 50 percent from behind the arc, but when he is averaging only five free throws per game, it shows that he is not doing nearly enough to drive to the basket. He is becoming a predictable player. Becoming predictable is one of the worst things that can happen to a scorer, as it makes it that much easier for an opposing coach to set up defensive schemes, and his scoring has been appropriately dropping.

Barnes' NBA draft stock is also slowly dropping as he becomes a more one-dimensional player and GMs see him as unable to create his own shots. This can all be fixed, though. Barnes has the ability to rise to the next level and be the No. 1 draft pick; but more important than that to Tar Heel fans, he has the ability to lead the team to a national championship. 

Come conference play, Barnes will be called upon to do more for his team, to lead them to victory using his considerable talent and skill. The question that will have to be answered is whether or not he will meet his full potential. The quick answer is probably not. At least, not while in college. Looking back at Michael Jordan's college career, he was a good player with great moments; but it took him well into his NBA career before Michael became Michael. 

Harrison Barnes is not Michael Jordan—but the same concept applies. Few basketball players reach their full potential in college, and Barnes doesn't appear to be on his way to being one of those few. Nevertheless, he could improve himself leaps and bounds and get well on his way to having his jersey hung from the rafters of the Dean Dome, with only a couple tweaks to his game.

The first tweak is aggression: He needs to get inside, bang the boards and use his physical abilities to dominate the opposition. He won't win many physical battles against the power forwards that the ACC has, but going against opposing small forwards or shooting guards should be an achievable goal. Standing at 6-foot-8, weighing 215 pounds, he can turn himself into a wrecking ball with the proper tempered aggression. Doing this will put him on the free throw line more often, and also become more unpredictable, allowing himself more space for his favorite jump shots.

The second tweak is putting the ball on the floor: He needs to be able to create his own shot, which means he needs to be able to take on defenders with confidence, and either beat them on the dribble or shake them loose for a pull-up jumper. If he is able to begin creating his own shots, his NBA stock will go back up. And he'll also become an immeasurably better player for UNC.

These two things will get him closer to the full potential that the NBA will be able to get him closer to, but it's no guarantee that he'll ever be able to harness what he's truly capable of. Some players don't have the mental ability to reach their physical abilities, while others don't have the physical ability to reach their mental abilities. Barnes has great ability on both ends of the spectrum, and with just a couple additions to his game he would make long strides to harnessing them both. For Tar Heel fans, the best that can probably be hoped for is a national championship, and then the pleasure of watching another UNC player succeed in the NBA. There's no problem with that, it's a perfect scenario.

Barnes is a very likable player, a good kid with his head on straight. It has been and will continue to be a pleasure watching him develop; and despite the fact that most of his development will probably happen in the NBA, there's still the possibility that he will harness himself and turn into a great college player, worthy of having his number retired. If that doesn't happen, it's not a great disappointment. There's only been eight in the program's storied history, but there's plenty of time for Barnes, a seasoned sophomore, to climb up the college echelons to reach the pinnacle of Player of the Year. Here's hoping it happens. But if not, a national championship will be just fine.