Pacquiao-Marquez 3: Pacman's Flaws Makes Mayweather Fight More Likely to Happen

It was supposed to be one of those big-time sporting events where you can write the headlines—and even most of the stories—ahead of time. After all, this was Manny Pacquiao's big stage. Juan Manuel Marquez was simply there to provide his turn as "the opponent." 

To the legions of casual sports fans who, in recent years, have adopted the charismatic Filipino congressman as the one pro boxer they follow, Juan Manuel Marquez was an obscure figure. Many of them bought the PPV in spite of Marquez's placement in it, not even realizing that the three-time world champion from Mexico City is one of the all-time greats in his own right. 

But even plenty of serious observers and actual participants who should have probably known better were selling Marquez short and, frankly, buying on Pacquiao at least a wee bit high.

Erik Morales is just one example. The current WBC light welterweight champion went on record in The Ring, picking Pacquiao by knockout in a one-sided performance.

Morales, 52(36)-7(2), is the last man to beat Pacquiao, before losing to Pac by KO in rematches.

Many saw him as the ideal example for illustrating why this Marquez-Pacquiao clash was not going to look anything like their classic, ridiculously close fights in 2004 and 2008. Morales was supposed to be exhibit A for how Pac had got bigger and more skilled and was now able to crush the mere mortals who once contested against him on more even terms.

Instead Pacquiao was lucky to survive with a hotly contested majority decision victory. Cue the Yogi Berra reference: It was deja vu all over again. 

Myself, I had Marquez winning, 115-113. I could see the argument for Marquez 116-112 easier than I could for a 114-114 draw.

Almost all the rounds were extremely close. This is one of those fights that is close enough for reasonable and honest people to disagree.

Either way, a lot of the sporting public now believes Manny Pacquiao lost his last fight. I had a poll included in one of the stories I wrote in the days afterward and while I don't propose this as any sort of a mathematically accurate statistic, I still think it means something that of over 2500 people who voted, 68.9 percent thought Marquez won. 

Win or lose, Juan Manuel Marquez's performance last November 12 upset a whole slew of apple carts, both large and small. For what feels like decades now, the boxing world has been eyeing an eventual showdown between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr.

The sport's two most compelling narratives both require that fight to reach their most satisfying culmination.  

On the one hand you have the fabulous fable of "Money" Mayweather, the greatest boxing prodigy in the history of the sport. If he beats Pacquiao, that's the final notch on the six gun. He's just shut out his generation and can now retire undefeated with a valid case for inclusion in all the different bar arguments that feature legendary names such as the two Sugar Rays, Hank Armstrong and Willie Pep. 

Or else it's the climax on the narrative arc of global superstar and man-of-the-people Manny Pacquiao: the tale of the hungry ghetto kid; the diamond in the rough with the big heart and the big left hand; a Filipino version of Daniel Larusso, who fell in with his own version of Mr. Miyagi and transformed himself into one of the elite boxing talents in the world. 

Yeah, we're all sick of talking about it. But we still keep talking about it for a reason. It is the one fight that would matter more than any other and everybody knows it. 

I think the general perception has developed that Floyd Mayweather Jr. had been the one who has balked at getting this fight made. Pacquiao partisans have taking to calling him "Mayrunner."

Pacquiao promoter Bob Arum sought to exploit this perception earlier this fall when he came right out and said that Mayweather was afraid to fight Pacquiao, because he knew he would fall prey to Pacquiao's dangerous lead right hook.

Arum went so far as declaring that "Pacquiao-Mayweather is a three-, four-round fight."

I've personally never bought the idea that Floyd Mayweather Jr. is afraid to fight Manny Pacquiao. Perhaps, though, Mayweather has been stalling for time a little bit, watching Pacquiao fight the array of opponents Top Rank has assembled for him, gathering more information for the boxing encyclopedia he carries between his ears. 

Now, I'm not sure how much useful information Mayweather was able to gather from Pacquiao's brutal beatdown of the lumbering Antonio Margarito. And there could not have been too much of a particularly enlightening nature for Mayweather to gleam from watching Mosley spend 12 rounds running away from Pacquiao, or even from having seen Pacquiao decapitate another of their mutual adversaries, Ricky Hatton.

Marquez-Pacquiao III, however, has probably given Mayweather something like a Rosetta Stone. 

Manny Pacquiao's fights in recent years have all been impressive for the same reason: They have demonstrated the rare talents of a uniquely skilled offensive fighter. Under Freddy Roach's tutelage, Pacquiao has transformed from a tough street kid who would eat two to give one with his brutal overhand left into a two-fisted assassin with explosive footwork and the ability to unload devastating punches from a shocking variety of angles. 

It is too much to say that Juan Manuel Marquez exposed Pacquiao on November 12. Pacquiao's aggressive pressure style still carried the night (whether I agree with it or not), but it demonstrated that against a world class counter-puncher, Manny Pacquiao still has his problems.

A lot will be made of the fact that Floyd Mayweather Jr. shut out Marquez when they fought.  

I never say that fighter A can beat fighter C just because fighter A beat fighter B and fighter B beat fighter C. Fighter A and fighter C are entirely separate matchups. 

However, I am going to ask myself a couple of questions. For starters: can fighter A do the same things to beat fighter C that fighter B did? And can fighter C do things to beat fighter A that fighter B was not capable of?

In regards to Mayweather-Pacquiao-Marqez, let's answer the second question first. Yes, Manny Pacquiao has a powerful offensive game that Juan Manuel Marquez does not have. In my estimation, Pacquiao represents a more dangerous night's work for Mayweather than Marquez did. 

But the answer to the second question is yes, too. Floyd Mayweather Jr. possesses all the skills required to implement the exact same game plan against Pacquiao than Marquez used. Since he is also much quicker than Marquez and has better reach, it's reasonable to expect him to take Marquez's game plan and improve on it.

Now, there could be some aspect of what Marquez has managed to do against Pacquiao that is not so easily copied. Marquez has been brilliant at deciphering and disrupting Pacquiao's timing.

Perhaps Mayweather just won't be able to figure out the puzzle the same way.

Either way, I am sure that Mayweather is telling himself, "Anything Marquez can do, I can do better." I never thought Mayweather was scared of fighting Manny Pacquiao. But now I expect Mayweather is probably licking his chops.

The Holiday season is upon us and the New Year is coming fast. It's time to get hopeful about the chances of Pacquiao-Mayweather in 2012. Marquez-Pacquiao III should improve the odds that it takes place.