EPL Round 16: Arsenal vs. Manchester City, Tactical Preview and Projection

When Manchester City host Arsenal this Sunday at the Etihad Stadium in their EPL Round of 16 match, it will be a duel both sides will look to win.

Manchester City will want to put any doubt to rest regarding their bona fides or lack thereof as favorites to win this year's Premiership title.

Arsenal will want to demonstrate that their victory over Chelsea, far from being a fluke, was indeed genuine evidence of their remarkable renascence from the brink of what looked to be certain collapse. Can they win against top sides? This will be a question they'd be keen to put to rest.

Of the two, Arsenal are still the underdog. On paper and on the basis of current form, Manchester City should easily win this match. For all intents and purposes, this match is theirs to lose.

As for what is at stake—a great deal for both teams.

A loss for City and a win for their neighbor and bitter rival, Manchester United, who also play on Sunday away to QPR, will mean relinquishing top place on the table, after enjoying a five-point advantage since mid-October.

They'll fight tooth and nail to prevent this from happening.

For Arsenal, their position at fifth on the table is still unsecure. A loss for them and wins for both Liverpool and Newcastle United in the fierce race for top-four finish will see Arsenal relinquish their three-point advantage over these two rivals. It is to Arsenal's advantage therefore to secure at least a point from this match.

Which of the two teams will be harmed most by a loss? It has to be Arsenal.

A loss for City will only put them a point behind Manchester United if United win at QPR. Wins for both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur will leave City still four points ahead of them.

For Arsenal, this is not the case.

A loss for them and wins for both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur will mean a widened gap of four points between them and these two teams.

That's huge when you're competing for a single, fiercely-contested spot. Moreover, a win for Liverpool by four or more goals could see them leapfrog Arsenal.

Therefore, although none of the two teams is necessarily left undamaged in the event of a loss, this is more true of City than of Arsenal. The psychological scars that Arsenal sustained in August and September must be nursed carefully and not allowed to open and fester at this critical period of the season.

Arsenal must go into this match resolved to win or tie it. How do they achieve this? I explore this in what follows.

But skip to the last slide first. Thanks.

Space and Sense

Football tactics are fundamentally a matter of space and sense. Incidentally Pep Guardiola was on hand to talk about tactical common sense after Barcelona's impressive victory over archrival Madrid. This, however, requires only a little thought by anyone to grasp its importance.

The first of my two previews of this match sought, if tacitly, to address first the issue of "sense," hence that article's focus on the two coaches involved in this match in terms of their temperament under pressure.

Here's why this is important: Generals win wars, and this is as much the reading of their rival as it is the reading of the field of battle.

A fundamental key to winning difficult matches lies as much in figuring out of your opposing manager's temperament and predilection and seeking to out-think him as it is in coming up with a tactic for the match. 

The battle between Barcelona and Real Madrid is as much a battle of two exceptional thinkers as it is about the 22 players of both teams who take to the pitch in any given Clásico on any given day. Please read that first article.

Space and Key Players

In terms of space, this relates directly to the tactics you fashion out before and during a particular match in anticipation of the opposing team's formation vis-à-vis its strengths and weaknesses and in response to the changing situation of the match.

Key Players

It is the players on the pitch that create and give sense to the spaces in a match. To prevent goals, a team must be shrewd in closing down the spaces around its goal area. In attack, the team must find a way to open up spaces in a tightly-marked area to score the goal or goals it seeks.

As simplistic as it sounds, this is a profound principle.

Think how the 11 players on the pitch spend 90 minutes trying again and again to do just that.

How stupid and senseless does it become when a team tries the same approach over and over again? The mark of a good team is its ability to vary its approach to this simple fact. This is what set Barcelona apart from Madrid last week.

Now since my interests lie with Arsenal, I will focus the following analysis from their perspective.

There are three players Arsenal need to tame if they are to emerge with a point, or three, from this match: Yaya Toure, David Silva and Sergio Aguero. The main threat though is the first two. The others are Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli. Of the last two, though, only one is bound to start alongside Aguero in attack.

Over and above all, Yaya Toure and David Silva are the frame upon which City is built, eliminate them and you're halfway to victory.

City's preferred formation seem to be a 4-2-1-2-1 with Yaya Toure and Milner sitting on the base of the first triangle and Silva at the tip, although this is not fixed.

For example, Silva was deployed on the right in the Chelsea game, with Aguero occupying what I consider to be Silva's normal position. Also, in this game, City's formation was more a 4-2-3-1 formation.

Formations, however, are useless in and of themselves. The importance of Toure and Silva owes to this noteworthy factor: their influence within the defensive and attacking holes they occupy.

Key Players 1: Yaya Toure and City's Midfield

The blue arrow in the diagram shows Toure in the role of a box-to-box midfielder. When attacking, he moves from the defensive hole and thrusts forward into the space occupied by the advanced midfielder (usually Silva). 

His ability to accelerate forward and to win most 50/50 challenges for the ball makes him very dangerous (recall his goals against Villareal and Bayern Munich). His intuition in determining when to thrust forward and when not to is admirable.

To put it simply, Yaya Toure is a dangerous midfielder. As a box-to-box midfielder, he is second to none in the EPL.

When he moves forward, City's formation in the midfield become a 1-2, with Barry covering at the back while Toure links up with Silva on the two points of the inverted triangle.

We should note also that the formation often modulates to a 4-1-1-4, with Toure joining the attack at the top of the formation. City, though, prefer to have as many bodies behind the ball as possible.

Toure’s threat to Arsenal in this game, then, is this dangerous thrust forward.

But he is influential in one more dimension—his ability to dominate midfield. In this dimension, his goal is to break up the opponent’s attack and to link up with his side's advanced midfielder or the supporting striker. He does this very well.

This means that the opponent is neutralized in the midfield. This is the very reason why City have been very imposing in their games this season.

Touching this observation, here’s good news: Yaya Toure did not have an easy game in the Chelsea match due to the troubling scything runs of Ramires in the heart of the midfield.

It forced Toure to backtrack on many occasions and to resort to tackling in order to stop Ramires and—to a lesser extent—Raul Meireles. This means that Toure spends much of his time breaking up attacks instead creating them.

Note well then: If you see Toure moving more forward than backward in the Arsenal match, you should be troubled. It means Arsenal are bound to concede a goal. I shall build on this in the next section where I will suggest what Arsenal should do to keep Toure uncomfortable in the game.

Key Players 2: David Silva

Without David Silva in their ranks, City would have scored less goals and would have been less dynamic in their matches. Silva is City’s version of Cesc Fabregas, although, while the latter was more in the mold of the la pausa No. 10, the former is more like a false nine when played on the tip of City’s midfield triangle.

The interesting thing in the Chelsea match is that Mancini played him on the right of a 4-2-3-1 formation. I believe that’s why he was less influential in this game. He is more dangerous when played in the middle because of his troublesome movement off the ball. The only other person who moves so uncannily off the ball is Robin Van Persie.

Silva, thus, is as dangerous off the ball as he is on it. On the ball, his Messi-like diagonal runs often result in goals. He is very dangerous, for example, when collapsing the space from the flank towards the opponent’s goal. His unexpected shots at goal are unnerving to goalkeepers (recall his goal against Bayern Munich at the Etihad).

Silva is the key to City’s success in this match. I would play him in the middle if I were Mancini. As an Arsenal fan, I want to see him played wide on the right as happened against Chelsea where Thomas Vermaelen could counteract him.

I suggest below how Arsenal could best contain Silva in this match.

Key Players 3: The Front Three

Of City's wide forward players, Adam Johnson is by far the most dangerous, because he seems to be the only true winger in City's ranks. Or, at least, he's the only one who plays like one.

All others, including Samir Nasri or even David Silva, tend to cut inside when played wide, neutralizing as a result any width they'd create by playing in the wide areas of the final third.

As a Gooner, I pray that Johnson starts because he is more dangerous when he comes on late. He has a penchant for winning matches by creating width for City's attack, an element often lacking in City's games.

If he starts, Arsenal will be more likely to contain him, since this will be when the concentration of Arsenal's defenders is at its sharpest.

Nasri is a less effective (and less skillful) version of Silva who likes to cut inside too frequently when played on the flank. Interestingly, Nasri, to me, often looks more dangerous when played in the middle in a narrow, and quaint, 4-1-1-1-2-1 (Toure-Nasri-Silva) formation.

This formation is rare, but it seems I have seen City change into it sometimes, though briefly. Mancini's defensive predisposition means he is rather uncomfortable playing only one holding midfielder.

If City plays a 4-2-1-2-1 formation, beware of Sergio Aguero, who will play as the link between Silva and the most advanced striker. In this role, Aguero is at his most dangerous. His skill and awareness are remarkable. His diagonal runs on approach to the opponent's goal area result into goals frequently.

Thus, Aguero is the third key to a City win. So again, these are the three dangerous players Arsenal should look out for on Sunday: Toure, Silva and Aguero. And add Johnson because of his unique ability in City's ranks to create width for the attack.

The key for Arsenal will be to stop these three from linking up in attack. If they can do this, the duel will be half won.

Next, I explore what Arsenal should do to control and win this match.

Containing City's Three Key Players 1: The Back Three and the Roaming Defender

Here's how I'd go about containing City's dangerous triumvirate. 

First, I'd play a back three, mainly because we don't have true full-backs who could trouble City with overlapping runs, but more importantly because of the extra man this frees up.

Notice, from the diagram, where Edin Dzeko (or Balotelli, it doesn't matter) is positioned in the advanced striking role. This position is dangerous only if successful through-passes to the striker are completed, or if City employs wingers to launch dangerous crosses into Arsenal's box.

Ninety-nine percent of the time, defenders win these kinds of balls, so this is a normal danger that defenders must face in a match. Therefore, Dzeko or Balotelli could be a constant danger, to be sure, but not such that is out of the ordinary. 

Notice, though, where Aguero (if played in this position) and Nasri (or another winger) are positioned relative to Arsenal's simulated middle three.

Therefore, let's talk Frimpong (who, to be realistic, is unlikely to start). The advantage of a back three is the fact that an extra defensive player is free to roam in the hole where a false nine or a player like Silva normally causes havoc by their movement. 

I would thus play the extra defensive player just in front of the back three. My preference would be Alex Song if Abou Diaby were available to take up Song's projected position on the diagram. Remember, that what I'm proposing is what I'd do, not what Wenger is likely to do.

The role of this extra man is to track David Silva (tackle him, harry him, whatever—only don't allow him to get into his accustomed groove). This is why this person (Frimpong in this scenario) plays a roaming role in the hole in front of the back three.

The danger though is that Frimpong may get a red card if given this role, that's why I'd prefer Song even if Diaby were available. Coquelin, though a little more refined than Frimpong, does not have the same imposing presence that Frimpong has, which is why I'd prefer Frimpong over him in this match.

Let's shift to the next slide to continue the analysis, but let's summarize by noting the fact that a major duty of the back three is to contain City's most advanced striker, whereas the role of the roaming extra defender (call him the holding midfielder) is to contain the opposition's false nine or its creative midfielder, which in this case is likely to be Silva in the latter role, or Aguero in the former.

Containing City's Three Key Players 2: Taming the Wide Players

We've said that the roaming defender in the hole destroys the attacking threat of the creative midfielder or the false nine—Silva or Aguero.  How do you contain the opposition's attacking wide players?

The back two of the normal 2-1 midfield triangle should be positioned wider than normal. See the diagram.

In the diagram, both Song and Thomas Rosicky (my preference in this formation) are positioned behind the wing players of City. This is because I'm assuming an attacking formation. Note how arrows link the midfielders. But while the arrows point in the direction of attack, they do also account for the defensive situation.

Note, for example, how an arrow points backwards from Song to indicate the space he is responsible for covering in the match. Note also how an arrow leads backward from him to Frimpong, the supposed roaming defender in this situation. All this indicates the defensive side of the formation.

Rosicky on the contrary, I'd instruct to be more attack minded. To compensate for this, Theo Walcott will be responsible for tracking back very deeply into Arsenal's own half in defensive situations. Rosicky will also track back, of course.

For this formation to work defensively then, the base two of the midfield triangle will have to work hard in tracking back when their team is under attack. Rosicky, note, will track back inward, while Walcott will track outward space on the flank to neutralize any threat from this area.

Song will track back in the manner of a full-back, while the roaming defender will concentrate mostly on the false nine or the creative midfielder.

In summary, Frimpong destroys Silva, Song tracks and destroys Nasri when City attacks, while Walcott tracks back to duel Aguero (or the player in that position). Rosicky will track back inward to crowd the space in front of the back three, turning the formation to a 5-2-1, with a back five of Song and Walcott, the two consisting of Frimpong and Rosicky and the "No. 1," Mikel Arteta.

When pivoting from defense, Arteta becomes the pivot.

Let's talk attack in the next slide.

Attacking City 1: The Yaya Toure Factor

The reason I said in the previous slide that I'd instruct Rosicky to be more attack minded while asking Walcott to track back deeper than usual is—besides the reasons given above—to compensate for Arteta's disavantage against City's back midfield two of Yaya Toure and Gareth Barry when Arsenal attacks.

Notice how (in the diagram) Rosicky moves diagonally inward to attack Toure. Running at Toure will be the key to containing him. Recall how I said that Ramires neutralized his influence in the Chelsea match by doing exactly this.

With Barry then occupied with trying to track Song when this happens, Arteta should be free to link up with Arsenal's front three. The reverse is also true, where Arteta attacks Toure and Rosicky provides the link-up pass to the front three. Song, thus, is a decoy to take out Barry.

Gervinho, off the ball, neutralizes his marker at wide left while Walcott does the same to the other player at right. Meanwhile, the possessing player (Arteta or Rosicky) runs at City's back two and then releases a pass to any available player, after which he moves behind City defense to expect a return pass.

Robin Van Persie causes more trouble by running into the heart of City's penalty area off the ball.

Arsenal's formation when attacking deep in City's area will be a 3-1-2-1-2 formation, where the 1-2 may change quickly to a 2-1. Note how this leaves an extra roaming player. This is the Arteta factor.

Note thus that Arteta is the attacking equivalent of the roaming defensive player, which is why there's a circle around him. His role is to link defense to attack, to construct when going forward and to destroy when the movement is backwards.

Finally, let's look at Robin Van Persie in the next slide.

Attacking City 2: The Robin Van Persie Factor

In the diagram, you see that there's a circle around Robin Van Persie and that an arrow points backwards from him. The latter signifies the need for him to drop deep from time to time to link up with Arteta or to swap with Arteta the advanced position. 

This means essentially that he will at times function like a false nine. This is what the circle signifies.

Diagonal broken arrows point away and forward both from his deeper and advanced position. They signify his attacking linkage with Walcott and Gervinho, both of whom should seek to outwit City's defenders by running behind them. When Van Persie falls deep, Arteta should run at the heart of City's defense to collapse inward City's central back two.

This should create space for Rosicky to run into, which in turn should distract away from Van Persie, who should move off the ball into City's goal area in anticipation for a pass either from the wide attackers or from the advancing midfield two.

I make general comments in the next slide.

General Observations

Summary

I have said that three players will be key for City in this game. It is therefore incumbent upon Arsenal to neutralize these players.

Yaya Toure will prove troublesome in creating and executing attack if not neutralized. The best way to neutralize him is to run at him like Ramires did in the Chelsea match. In the formation I'd play, Arteta has the roaming role in the advanced midfield position to do precisely that. Rosicky does the same when Arsenal advances forward.

The threat of Theo Walcott should also serve to curb Toure's attacking instincts. Walcott, thus, needs to produce in this game.

Gervinho, you'd notice, is more advanced in the diagram positionally than Walcott is. That's because I'd play him as the more advanced attacker in this match—notwithstanding his wide positioning—regardless of whether I play the formation suggested here or the more traditional 4-2-1-3.

David Silva will cause Arsenal a great deal of pain in this match. A roaming defensive midfielder could be the answer to neutralizing him. If he is played wide and Arsenal play the default back four, then Song must be the destructive agent to Silva's menace.

Aguero will be dangerous. In the default back four scenario therefore, Arteta should be responsible for tracking him when City attacks.

Attack vs Defense

Another factor that will make or mar the match for Arsenal is finding the right balance between attack and defense. To achieve this, they should play a rhythm that builds gradually and then speeds up in the final third.

The first of these two factors Chelsea executed well—building cautiously and deliberately. These are two key words.

What Chelsea failed to do was the second of these factors. But for the lucky break that came their way via the penalty, they looked on the brink of losing the opportunity to take the three points at stake.

First, they failed to use their flanks in the final third—the reason for their equalizing goal—but displayed an inexplicable amnesia toward the very weapon that allowed them to crawl their way back into the match.

Instead, they cut inside time and again and launched the ball into City's goal area. City's defenders had a field day dealing with those. Joleon Lescott's hand ball was a disappointment—from City's perspective—in this circumstance.

Arsenal should not make this mistake. Walcott and Gervinho should play outward in City's final third to create width and to allow the trio of Van Persie, Arteta and Rosicky (or Aaron Ramsey as is more likely to be the case) to run into the resultant space.

Second, Chelsea failed to alter their tempo in City's final third after building cautiously and deliberately from their own half.

Arsenal should employ the same cautious approach when building attacks from their own half, but should speed up the tempo in City's final third.  I know they can do this, since it's in their nature to do so.

What's important, therefore, is the first of the two elements—the cautious and deliberate part.

If they get this particular element wrong, the game could go up in smoke.

In the 4-2-1-3 formation, who should be responsible for this transition from caution at the back to boldness in front?

Song and Arteta. THEY MUST MAKE SURE NOT TO PLAY A CONSTANT HELTER-SKELTER TEMPO IN THIS MATCH.

This point is important, the reason why I have committed the "caps" sin.

But when all is said and done. The day will take its own course. Let's hope that our post-match analysis will be accompanied by joy and satisfaction instead of anger and disappointment.

Conclusion

This is an article that you enjoy rather than skim. Its technical nature may not stand well in terms of shelf life on the front page.

I urge you then to disseminate it widely among your football-loving friends. A fair readership will encourage me to write more articles like it in the future. It takes a little more time to write this sort of analysis than it takes to report breaking news.

So please e-mail it, tweet it, message it—whatever. This will be a great incentive. Also, please, take the time to leave comments and suggestions. Thank you.

I believe Arsenal can win this match, or at least tie it, if they find the right balance between attack and defense. I tip them therefore to emerge with a point.

All they need to do is improve upon the positive things Chelsea did in the equivalent duel against City. I elaborate on this in the slides. Please proceed to read.